NFL Preview: NFC North

Yesterday I predicted that the Falcons would rise to the top of an NFC South division that has never had a repeat division champion. Today I head up to the NFC North, which goes from one of the worst divisions in football last year to one of the best this year.

Chicago Bears
Like so many teams last year, the Bears had a chance to make it to the playoffs in the final week of the regular season, but a loss to the Texans dashed their hopes. They finished a respectable 9-7 despite having a less than respectable quarterback and a defense that didn't play up to its usual bone crushing standards.
The offense struggled again last year, but how is that different than any other season in Chicago? Kyle Orton held off Rex Grossman for the starting quarterback gig, but certainly didn't win them any games with his arm as the Bears finished 21st in pass offense and 25th in yards per attempt. It didn't help that Orton didn't have anyone to throw to, as Chicago's No. 1 receiver Devin Hester had previously been a kick returner and reserve cornerback in his career. They found a revelation in rookie running back Matt Forte, but once teams figured out that he was their main source of offense they loaded the box against him. The Bears finished 24th in rush offense, and 27th in yards per carry. Forte should take a step forward in his second season though, and his pass catching skills provide another option for new quarterback Jay Cutler, a major improvement over Orton. Cutler can wing the ball downfield to the speedy Hester who, according to numerous reports, has finally learned how to run routes. Cutler's former college teammate Earl Bennett will furnish him with a trusted target and young pass catching tight end Greg Olsen will look to control the middle of the field with his developing skills.
The Bears defense will try to improve their 21st ranking, and their inability to slow down passing games. Their run defense was still great, ranking 5th in the NFL and 3rd in yards per carry. However, as mentioned before, they put up very little resistance against the pass. They were passed on more than any other team in the league, and with good reason because of that solid run defense, and finished 30th against the pass. Their saving grace was the fact that they finished 3rd in the league in interceptions and 2nd overall in takeaways. Injury problems factored into a disappointing season as well, but if they come back healthy this year, they should be one of the top defensive units in the league again, especially considering they won't be facing too many high-powered offenses this season, and only 2 quarterbacks who threw for 4,000 yards last year.
Assuming the Bears defense will be back to its usual swarming self, the addition of Jay Cutler and development of his weapons should provide them with their first capable offense in many years. If Chicago can win games with both its defense AND offense, they will be a dangerous team with championship aspirations.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the NFC North

Detroit Lions
Last season was the ultimate disaster in Detroit. The Lions proved that it was indeed possible to go 0-16 (Who would have ever thought that we would see a team go 16-0 and then see another team go 0-16 the very next year?? Incredible). The good news? Things can only get better.
Their offense last season was pretty much summed up by their quarterback Dan Orlovsky running out of the back of the end zone for a safety without even realizing it. The Lions finished 30th in total offense and 27th in scoring offense. They passed pretty much all the time since they were constantly behind, but even with the presence of "Megatron", Calvin Johnson, the most talented young wide receiver in the league, Detroit placed 24th in passing and 27th in yards per attempt. They took quarterback Matthew Stafford with the #1 overall pick in this year's draft to give Johnson someone who could actually get him the ball, and it appears that former standout Daunte Culpepper will begin the season as the starter to groom Stafford. Last year rookie running back Kevin Smith came on strong toward the end of the season, but the Lions were still 30th in the league in rushing offense and 28th in yards per carry. Smith has looked great in camp though, according to reports, and running backs make the biggest leap in their second season, so hopes are high for an improvement this year.
Detroit's defense could not have been any worse than it was in 2008. They finished last in total defense and scoring defense, and had trouble stopping either the run or the pass. Teams threw the fewest passes against the Lions, but that didn't stop them from finishing 27th in pass defense and passing touchdowns allowed, largely due to the fact that they gave up the most yards per attempt in the NFL and picked off only 4 passes all season, last in the league. They were passed on the least because they could not stop the run at all. I mean AT ALL. Like if I was running it against them, they couldn't stop me. Detroit finished dead last across the board in rush defense, rushing scores allowed, and yards per carry against. And that's really all that needs to be said.
At least the Lions know they can't be any worse than they were a year ago, but how much better can they be? Their offense looks primed for a significant improvement and their defense has a decent shot at getting out of the cellar, but they play in a loaded division and have to get used to yet another head coach.
Prediction: 3-13, 4th in the NFC North

Green Bay Packers
The Packers' season got off to a messy start last year with the whole Quarterback-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named saga. But after a statement 37-3 win over the rival Bears in week 11, Green Bay was a respectable 5-5. Alas things fell apart quickly after that and they lost their next 5 games, finishing the year at 6-10.
New starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers made it easier for Packers fans to let go of the Master Flip-Flopper, as he became one of the league's top passers throwing for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns. Green Bay was the 5th highest scoring team in the league and finished 8th in total offense, 8th in passing offense, and 5th in passing scores. 2007 breakout star Ryan Grant struggled with injuries and expectations in the first half of 2008, and the running game was a bit stale. Rodgers scored more than a third of the Packers' rushing touchdowns, so you can understand why they finished 24th in rushing scores. A healthier Grant should be solid for the entire year this time around, and Rodgers' second season under the helm should bring improvements in the passing game as well, especially with the development of some young receivers like Jordy Nelson and JerMichael Finley.
The Packers struggled on defense last year, surrendering the 22nd most points in the league. Their run defense in particular was a letdown, as they finished 26th against the run, 27th in rushing scores allowed, and 26th in yards per carry allowed. Green Bay looked to address those issues in this year's draft, selecting defensive tackle B.J. Raji with their top pick to wreak havoc in the backfield. The pass defense was okay, as both starting corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson were selected to the Pro Bowl. Woodson was among the lead leaders in interceptions with 7, and as a team Green Bay picked off the 3rd most passes in the league. The Packers are switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme and moving standout defensive end Aaron Kampman to linebacker, hoping to create more pressure on the quarterback like other teams who use the 3-4.
The Packers should boast an even more prolific offense than they did last year, and their defense should also take a step forward. In any other division this would almost certainly be a playoff team, but competing with two other very talented squads in the North could leave the Pack on the outside looking in come January. Head-to-head matchups and tiebreakers will be important in Green Bay.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the NFC North

Minnesota Vikings
Last season the Vikings overcame shaky quarterbacking and a 5-5 start to capture the North division winning 5 of their final 6 games. Tarvaris Jackson showed some flashes and hoped to take the next step this season, but it appears Minnesota has decided to go in a different direction with its signal caller hoping for more than a first round exit in the postseason.
The Vikings offense begins and ends with sensational running back "All Day" Adrian Peterson. He can break off an 80 yard run on any given play, and he led Minnesota to the 5th best rushing offense in 2008 and 6th best in yards per carry. The quarterback situation wasn't great as the Vikings settled for the 25th best passing offense and 23rd most interceptions thrown, but they did find a couple revelations in deep threat Bernard Berrian and playmaking tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Rumor has it that Minnesota has a new old quarterback in town this season who can do some things with this offense.
The Vikings had an absolutely suffocating defense last year, particularly against the run. Pro Bowl run-stuffers Pat and Kevin Williams swallowed up opposing rushers and led Minnesota to the top ranked rushing defense in the NFL that also allowed the second fewest yards per carry. All Pro defensive end Jared Allen racked up 14.5 sacks and Pro Bowl corner Antoine Winfield helped the Vikings allow the 5th fewest passing touchdowns in the league last year. Minnesota will probably hang their hat on the defense again in 2009. Even though the secondary loses veteran safety Darren Sharper, they get younger and faster and corner Cedric Griffin has another year of experience to help out Winfield in coverage. The Williamses await final word on suspensions that were repealed, but assuming they are in the lineup this scary front seven will blow up a ton of running plays again.
Minnesota can run the ball and stop the run, a formula that has won championships for other teams this decade (Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers). Now with a potentially potent offense threatening to put up enough points to take some pressure off that defense, the Vikings are considered to be serious Super Bowl contenders.
Prediction: 12-4, 1st in the NFC North