I’m coming into the 2010 NFL season with a theory. It’s definitely not my own, but what is now a widely supported one that I tend to agree with. You can’t win without being able to throw the ball effectively (And, consequently, being able to stop the pass). Quarterbacks are even more singularly responsible for wins now then a couple decades ago. Since 1992, this is the list of quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl: Troy Aikman, Aikman, Steve Young, Aikman, Brett Favre, John Elway, Elway, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Brady, Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Roethlisberger, Drew Brees. The last less-than-great quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Brad Johnson in 2002 (Boy do I hate bringing up that game), and he and Trent Dilfer are the only QB’s (aside from Eli and Big Ben for who it’s still too early to tell) on that prestigious list who aren’t either already in the Hall of Fame or almost certainly on their way there. To further underscore the shift to a pass-happy league, consider this. In the first 40 years of the NFL’s Super Bowl era (1966-2005) a quarterback threw for 4,000 yards in a season 56 times (On average, that’s 1.4 quarterbacks doing it per year). In the last 4 years, it has happened 28 times (On average, that’s 7 quarterbacks doing it per year). That’s half as many 4,000 yard seasons in only a tenth of the time! That’s quite a dramatic and very sudden change. There are several reasons for this. One big key is rule changes. Quarterbacks are preciously protected. You can’t even look at them the wrong way without getting hit with a personal foul penalty. Also, defensive backs are forced to be much less physical with wide receivers down the field to avoid penalties. In addition, our favorite fantasy football killer, the RBBC (Running Back By Committee), has taken a strong hold among NFL teams, who have come to the realization that heavy workload backs have an extremely short shelf life (As we have seen with the likes of Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson over the past several seasons). There are no more than a dozen clear number one rushers in the league today. It has been proven over the years that running backs and receivers come and go. Last year no one knew who Jamaal Charles or Miles Austin was. They came out of nowhere to have monster years (And win many fantasy leagues along the way). I mean, Jerome Freaking Harrison had a 286 yard rushing game last season!! But quarterbacks generally don’t come and go (Unless it’s Ben Roethlisberger with a college co-ed in a dirty bathroom, if you catch my drift). Sure, they might come out of obscurity like Tom Brady and Kurt Warner did, but once they establish themselves as elite signal callers, they’re there to stay and their teams contend virtually every single year. So, I’m going to test out the theory of predicting the 2010 NFL season based mostly around the quarterback position.
First Cuts
Here’s what it boils down to: For me, there’s a clear top 10 at QB, with an elite 3 among them. The elites, of course, are: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. The rest of the top 10 goes like this: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and Eli Manning. This group features 6 quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings, 7 who have gotten to the big game, and 8 who have made it to a conference championship game. Of the other two, Aaron Rodgers has only been a starter for two seasons, and it wasn’t his fault that the Packers lost his only playoff game as he put up 423 yards, 4 TDs, and 45 points in a loss to the Cardinals last year. Tony Romo has been the scapegoat for some Cowboys December disappointments, but finally won a playoff game last season, which could be the confidence boost he needed. After this group comes a couple of talented guys who can crack the top 10 if they can find some consistency or show they have more intangibles. Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler belong in this category. Finally, the last group who makes the short list are two players entering their third years, who have already had success leading their teams to the postseason, who I think can make the leap to the upper echelon of quarterbacks. They are Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Based on quarterback play alone, these are the 14 teams who have a shot at winning the Super Bowl. To back up my selections consider this; two of those quarterbacks played in last year’s Super Bowl. Three of them made it to a conference championship game. Nine of them reached the playoffs (Plus Kurt Warner, who was a top 10 guy last year). Twelve of them finished with winning records. All but one went at least .500. And the last one still won 7 games (Although he threw a league high 26 picks en route). The combined 2009 record of the teams the 14 chosen quarterbacks led? A tidy 146-78, good for a winning percentage of better than 65%. That’s no coincidence. And if you examine the list, you’ll see that every conceivable contender for this season is on it apart from two: the Jets and the Bengals.
As for the Bengals, their quarterback Carson Palmer used to be a top 10 guy who looked to be on his way to gaining entry into the elite club, but he was derailed by injuries and has looked a shell of his former self the past 2 seasons. Even with T.O. in the fold, I don’t think Palmer has enough in the tank to get Cincinatti over the hump. And being in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens, who did make the first cut, in a very competitive conference, I think they’ll be the odd team out in the AFC North.
The Jets, meanwhile, are the one team who can buck the trend. They’re a trendy pick by many to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl after shocking everyone on their way to the conference title game last season. The Jets do have half the equation for a successful team; they can sure stop the pass. With Darelle Revis finally signed, they retain arguably the best shutdown corner in the league to go along with a fearsome pass rush, the result of an avalanche of blitzing (Though an injury to Calvin Pace may slow that a bit). Their quarterback, however, was awful last year. Now granted, Mark Sanchez was just a rookie and figures to be improved heading into year two, but I feel that he’s still not even close to the 14 guys who made the short list of contenders. The Jets figure to still be a strong running team, though I feel that’s not a given with an unproven starter in Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson on his last legs. Even with a terrific offensive line blocking for them, the Jets will probably find it a challenge to replace Thomas Jones, the NFL’s second leading rusher last year. Sanchez will be forced to make plays for the Jets to make another deep postseason run, and while the addition of Santonio Holmes, along with a full season of Braylon Edwards gives Sanchez a nice arsenal of talented weapons, I still don’t think he has the vision or decision-making ability yet that New York will need from him to win a ring this year. I do have the Jets making the playoffs, but I don’t put them in the upper crust of AFC teams.
Second Cuts
To consolidate our choices a bit, let’s go back to the list of the 14 quarterbacks and take a quick glance at the teams they lead. The list of contenders runs like this: Colts, Patriots, Saints, Packers, Steelers, Chargers, Cowboys, Vikings, Redskins, Giants, Texans, Bears, Ravens, Falcons. From here we can rule out some obvious pretenders.
Bye bye Bears. Cutler has all the talent in the world, but lacks the necessary intangibles a quarterback needs to be truly great, Plus, as he showed last year, he is a turnover machine who will now be under more pressure from opposing pass rushers in Mike Martz’ offensive system where pass plays take a lot of time to develop. He could make a significant improvement and still turn the ball over 25+ times. Throw in the fact that he has no proven receiving options and Chicago has to compete with Minnesota and Green Bay in the NFC North, and they’re clearly on the cut list.
Wake me up when the Texans actually make the playoffs. I feel like they’ve been trendy sleepers for the last 4 years, yet something always goes wrong. This time, I’m not taking the bait. Matt Schaub has yet to put together back to back healthy seasons and Andre Johnson has a bit of an injury history as well. With no proven running backs and a defense that is great at failing to live up to it’s potential, there’s no way the Texans can best the Colts in the AFC South, and with an always solid, well-coached Titans team also in the division, I don’t think Houston can sneak in as a Wild Card either.
Last year I picked the Giants to go to the Super Bowl. Whoops. Their defense was atrocious and while they’re in line for an improvement, I don’t think they’ll get back to their 2007 championship form. Eli was good last season, and has plenty of quality receiving options, but a shaky offensive line might not give him enough time to find his talented targets. The running game is in turmoil as Brandon Jacobs is already unhappy with his role, and in the best division in football; it will be tough for New York to even make it to the playoffs.
The Redskins improved the most out of any team in the league on paper. Not only did they snare a top 10 QB during the offseason, but also brought in a 2-time Super Bowl winning coach. That said, Donovan McNabb doesn’t have nearly the same caliber of weapons as he had in Philly, plus he’s an injury prone quarterback (He already missed nearly all of the preseason with a sprained ankle) dropping back behind a questionable offensive line. But hey, at least the backfield tandem of Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson is great…or it would be if this was 2006. A decent defense could be downgraded with the loss/riddance/sulking/benching of Albert Haynesworth. They too share the same problem as the Giants of being in the NFL’s toughest division. There are too many question marks on this team to make them a true contender in 2010.
The Chargers have had a great run atop the AFC West the last few seasons. While I believe the rest of that division is still weak enough for them to win it once more, I think they drop down from contenders to pretenders. Year 3 of the Norv Turner era has usually been the breaking point for a team’s success, and San Diego faces that situation this year. Even though Philip Rivers is terrific, the nearly imminent loss of his best wideout Vincent Jackson would leave him with no proven NFL wide receivers. Also, with the holdout of left tackle Marcus McNeill, Rivers may find himself on the ground a lot more than he is accustomed to. Add to that the departure of LT and the Chargers are turning to a rookie running back from a school that played in a very weak conference (Outside of Boise State) to be their workhorse back. And with Shawn Merriman no longer being “Lights Out”, the defense lacks the playmakers it was once loaded with. Not to mention their kicker, Nate Kaeding, might have lost all his confidence after a horrifying postseason performance last season. With regressions expected in all phases of the game, I have to cut the Chargers here as well.
Third Cuts
Now we’re down to 9 teams: the Colts, Patriots, Saints, Packers, Steelers, Cowboys, Vikings, Ravens, and Falcons. Time to weed out the squads who will make it to a conference championship game.
I really like the Falcons this year. I think Matt Ryan will take a step forward in his third season. Roddy White is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL and the return of a healthy Michael Turner makes Atlanta a huge threat in the running game. An improving defense will bolster them as well, and I really think they can give the Saints a run for their money in the division. But I still think they lack the firepower to go all the way, and even as Ryan improves, I don’t see him severely outplaying Brees, Rodgers, Romo, or Favre which is what it will take to beat those teams on the road in the playoffs.
Everything went right for the Vikings last season. It was their year, yet they still managed to throw it away (Literally, with Favre’s fatal interception in the NFC title game). I think there’s no way Favre could repeat what was the best season of his career at 41 even if everything else stayed the same. And the bigger problem is, things aren’t the same. Favre’s ankle is gimpy and he’s still not sure if it’ll ever fully recover. His best wide receiver, Sidney Rice, is out at least half the year, and his second best option, Percy Harvin, is dealing with recurring migraines and is a threat to pass out at any time (As he did at practice a couple weeks ago). A less potent passing attack will make life tougher on Adrian Peterson, who has some fumbling issues to work out himself. Combine that with a slightly overrated defense, a terrible coach, and the rise of the Packers in their division, and I think the Vikings cede the NFC North to Green Bay and struggle just to make the playoffs.
It’s tough for me to rule out the Steelers, but I have to do it. With Big Ben out for the first 4 games, Pittsburgh could be looking at a 1-3 start. A week 4 loss to Baltimore would put them in a hole in a division where both the Ravens and the Bengals will be tough to beat. Even after Roethlisberger returns, the loss of Santonio Holmes limits his options, and if Hines Ward begins showing his age there won’t be many reliable targets left. The injury to starting tackle Willie Colon hurts a pass protection that got Roethlisberger sacked a league high 50 times a year ago. As long as Troy Polamalu stays healthy that defense will be solid as a rock, but with the physical pounding Polamalu takes, that’s certainly no guarantee. Ultimately I think their slow September start will keep them from being in the mix for home field in the playoffs, and I just can’t see them winning in two out of Baltimore, Indy, and Foxboro in the postseason with all the issues they are facing.
There is a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will be the first team ever to host the Super Bowl. While they certainly have the talent to do so, I think they will fall just short. They have offensive line questions, and their running backs seem to have an awfully tough time staying healthy for a full season. Dez Bryant may take most of the year to get into the flow of an NFL game after missing most of training camp with an injury. And I’ve yet to trust Tony Romo to get through 3 or 4 playoff games without killing a team with his mistakes.
When I first thought about the upcoming season, my first instinct was to put the Baltimore Ravens into the Super Bowl. I’ve really liked their team the past couple seasons and I think Joe Flacco will make the jump to upper echelon quarterback status in his third season. With the additions of Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Donte Stallworth, and the two tight ends they drafted in April to the always steady Derrick Mason, Flacco has a complete stable of options to go to. With a good offensive line and a fearsome rushing attack led by young thoroughbred Ray Rice, it’s an offense primed to be among the top units in the league. Let’s remember though, that Boldin has only played 16 games in a season once since 2003 and seems perpetually banged up. Housh was a huge disappointment in Seattle last season and looks to be in decline. Mason is getting up there in age. Stallworth is coming off of a traumatic couple of seasons, especially off the field. The new tight ends are still rookies. And it’s still a pretty big leap of faith to say that Flacco can rise into the top 7 or 8 quarterback range. The defense may be able to bolster them enough to get by without everything on offense working out the way it looks on paper, but they have major issues at cornerback. While the return of All-Pro safety Ed Reed can cover some mistakes in the secondary, the Ravens just don’t have the personnel at corner that they will need to slow down the awesome aerial attacks led by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. And if they can’t keep those guys from scoring 30 points, I don’t think their offense, even with all its potential, will be able to keep up.
Final Cuts
With just the Colts, Patriots, Saints, and Packers (What do you know? Those teams happen to coincide with my top 4 quarterback choices) remaining, it’s time to get down to the nitty-gritty.
Wouldn’t a Saints-Packers matchup be the most entertaining game of the year? It would be along the lines of the Cardinals-Packers playoff game last year that ended 51-45; two high-flying offenses and playmaking defenses. I think this year’s Packers are last year’s Saints. Aaron Rodgers is in his third season as the starter coming off of a spectacular 2009 campaign and he has weapons on top of weapons. Greg Jennings is a dynamic deep threat. Donald Driver is as steady as they come underneath. Jermichael Finley is a matchup problem at tight end. James Jones can make plays on the outside. And they still have a 1200 yard rusher in Ryan Grant. The offensive line can’t be worse than the one that let Rodgers get sacked 50 times last year, and the Packers spent a couple of early round picks this year to help shore up that line. Their defense was one of the best in league last season and features reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson (My old favorite player since his college days at Michigan). While I think they still have holes (As they showed when they gave up those 51 points to Arizona last playoffs), it’s a defense that can force turnovers and make big plays, which was exactly what the Saints defense did last year on their way to a Super Bowl. The Saints, meanwhile, are still a formidable team. With the great Drew Brees at the helm they’ll be a tough out. You know that offense will be humming along just fine. The key for them though is to get better on defense. They weren’t great on that side of the ball last year, but were able to make up for it with turnovers that they turned into scores, (No better example than the interception return for a touchdown that sealed their Super Bowl win) a feat that has shown to be fluky and hard to duplicate from year to year. With the Packers possessing an offense that can match them point for point, the edge that Green Bay has defensively gives them, I think, the NFC crown.
Here we go again. How many big Colts-Patriots games have we seen the last few years? I think they’re the class of the conference once more and will meet again in the AFC title game. You already know all about the Colts offense. Peyton Manning has possibly the deepest talent pool of receiving targets he has ever had with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie entering their second seasons, and the once promising Anthony Gonzalez coming back as a 4th wide receiver for this team. Add them to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, two elites at their respective positions, and Manning is guaranteed to throw for over 4000 yards yet again. They need depth on defense to go all the way and the Colts feel like they have some this year. Still, I’d feel much better about their chances if I knew that Bob Sanders would be healthy to key their secondary. Even without him though, they can generate a great pass rush just with their two outstanding defensive ends, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Patriots offense tells a similar tale. With Wes Welker apparently nearly recovered from a major knee injury, and the addition of two skilled rookie tight ends and another rookie wide receiver, Tom Brady has some great toys to play with as well (Don’t forget Brady’s now 2 years removed from his major knee injury and should be able to move much better than last season). Plus, Brady and Randy Moss are both playing for new contracts this year and I don’t need to remind you what they did in 2007 without any financial motivation. New England’s defense looks very strong up the middle, but this was a unit that let them down last year, and even a significant improvement would barely get them into the upper third of the league. I’m not sure if that will be enough to stop Manning’s Colts. To me, these two teams are so evenly matched that the deciding factor in this game is simply where it will be played. We’ve seen the fits Manning has had playing out in the elements at Foxboro and how the Colts have triumphed indoors on a fast track. The Patriots have to get through a much tougher division than Indy does, likely giving the Colts home field in this matchup, and therefore the win in my book.
Super Bowl
A Colts-Packers Super Bowl would a lot of fun to see. They actually met a couple of weeks ago in a preseason contest in Green Bay where the Packers thrashed the Colts 59-24. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense looked superb in the first half of that game, but it was a preseason game with Indy likely showing just a vanilla defense, so I don’t want to read too much into it. However, I can’t help but be influenced by the way that the Packers looked against the Colts starting defense. It proves to me that they can at least move the ball effectively against that defense in a real game. I’ll go back to what I said earlier though; I think this year’s Packers are last year’s Saints, and last year’s Saints were good enough to beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. Therefore, the Green Bay Packers are your 2010 NFL Super Bowl champions. Three words: Brett Favre who?
