As we step into what has the potential to be the most intriguing NBA postseason of my basketball consuming life, let’s take a quick pulse of where each team is at…
16. Indiana Pacers
…Because someone had to be the 8th seed in the east. Nothing else to be said here.
First Round vs. Bulls: Not sure how they’re going to score on the Bulls. Granger was the one guy from last summer’s world championship squad that actually regressed this year (20.5 ppg down from 24.1 ppg). They’ll be happy to win a game.
15. New Orleans Hornets
With David West out for the year the Hornets will be relying solely on Chris Paul for offense. The only problem is Paul hasn’t been right all year and can’t handle the scoring burden as he has done in years past.
First Round vs. Lakers: New Orleans lost all 4 meetings with L.A. this season with a healthy West. Without him they have very little hope, even with their huge edge at the point guard position.
14. Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers made a remarkable run after losing 13 of their first 16 to start the season. They’re extremely long and athletic which enables them to defend well, but they have no go-to offensive player (Philly had six guys average double figures scoring, yet no one was over 15.0 a game) to get them buckets down the stretch. They would make an awesome college team, but in the pros you need that one superstar to carry you during crunch time, and the 76ers just don’t have it.
First Round vs. Heat: Terrible matchup as the Sixers thrive on running and their athleticism. Too bad for them Miami prefers to play just that style. Plus, they can’t expose Miami’s weakness in the paint.
13. Atlanta Hawks
Easily the most forgettable team in the playoffs. We know who they are and what they are. They beat bad teams and get crushed by good teams. They quit on their coach. They paid Joe Johnson $120 million to have his worst season in 7 years. The sooner they’re out of the playoffs the better.
First Round vs. Magic: I’ve heard people say Atlanta can pull off the upset depending on the health of Jason Collins. That would make me a bit nervous if I were a Hawks fan.
12. New York Knicks
First they were good. Then they were bad. Then they got good again. The Knicks are fun to watch with all that scoring punch, but I still don’t think Melo and Amar’e have figured out how to co-exist. The good news for them is that they only started building their championship contender this year.
First Round vs. Celtics: As bad as Boston played down the stretch the Knicks just don’t have the firepower to break through the Celtic defenses. At least the fans will be happy to have playoff basketball back at the Garden.
11. Memphis Grizzlies
An intriguing team who can throw a lot of different lineups at you to create some favorable matchups. They’ll miss Rudy Gay’s scoring and really need O.J. Mayo to step up and generate offense from the perimeter.
First Round vs. Spurs: I think this is actually a decent matchup for Memphis (Apparently the Grizzlies think so too since they tanked the last couple games of the regular season to ensure it). San Antonio will be hard pressed to match up with the Randolph-Gasol combo down low, and they can throw Tony Allen and Shane Battier at Ginobli. If Manu isn’t Manu to begin the series, the Grizz can steal a game on the road and gain home court (Where they were 30-11 with a +7.2 differential) for the remainder of the series.
10. Orlando Magic
As it turns out, the trades didn’t help at all. Arenas has nothing left. Turkoglu doesn’t enjoy the same favorable matchups without Rashard Lewis playing alongside him. As great as Dwight is, he still hasn’t tapped into his full potential. His propensity to pick up dumb technicals can hurt his team if he has to sit out a game. Even though he’s improved his offensive game, Howard still defers to Jameer Nelson on offense down the stretch. I marvel at the way he single-handedly keeps Orlando afloat at the defensive end, but he doesn’t have the necessary talent around him to win, or the mindset/willpower to do it completely by himself.
First Round vs. Atlanta: The Hawks are relying on Jason Collins to slow Howard down enough to steal the series. I think Orlando will be okay for now.
9. Portland Trailblazers
Robbing Charlotte of Gerald Wallace has totally transformed this team. They’re now a long, athletic, feisty, scrappy squad that still features a host of finely bred talent. The leap Aldridge has made to franchise player status has been incredible and the way Andre Miller uses all the weapons at his disposal makes the Blazers a joy to watch on the court. My heart aches for Brandon Roy, who if healthy could have pushed this team over the top, but if they can get anything resembling the old Roy even for 20 minutes a game Portland will be a tough out in the playoffs.
First Round vs. Mavericks: This was the matchup Portland wanted. They have multiple defenders to throw at Dirk as well as a huge athletic advantage over Dallas. If their perimeter guys can knock down open jumpers at a decent clip they definitely have the best shot at a first round upset.
8. Dallas Mavericks
Same old Mavs, great during the regular season but I can’t trust them to make a deep playoff run. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 playoff series, including 3 first round exits in the past 4 years. No team has a bigger dropoff from their number one to their number two guy. That has to take a toll on Dirk over the course of the season.
First Round vs. Blazers: Even though Nowitzki is the best player in this series, the Blazers may have the next three or four. Couple that with a wide assortment of defenders available to try and cover Dirk and the Mavs may make it 4 first round exits in 5 years.
7. Denver Nuggets
The Ewing theory is playing itself out with the post-Melo Nuggets. It’s fun to watch them get up and down the floor and pour in the points. Denver has a wide array of weapons, but no clear cut go-to guy to get them buckets down the stretch.
First Round vs. Thunder: Last week Nuggets coach George Karl was publicly pining to play Dallas in the first round, and I don’t blame him. The Thunder have the athletes to run with Denver and just beat the Nuggets twice in the past week. While Denver’s strength is their newfound depth, that’s not as big a factor in the playoffs and remember they have nobody to rely on for crunch time scoring anymore.
6. Boston Celtics
The Celtics come into the postseason reeling for the second straight season. However, most people feel it’s different this time around. Not just because their aging veterans are another year older, but because of the midseason roster shakeup that seems to have the whole team off their game. Boston will be banking on a healthy Shaq to fill the hole they created when they traded away Kendrick Perkins, and need Rajon Rondo to regain his early-season form if they want to punch a return ticket to the Finals.
First Round vs. Knicks: The Celtics are still the best team in the league at containing isolation scorers, and that should be enough to keep the Knicks at bay and get out of the first round.
5. San Antonio Spurs
For a team that had a stranglehold on the number one seed in the West all season, the Spurs head into the playoffs with a lot of question marks. They just endured their first 5 game losing streak of the Tim Duncan era, and Manu Ginobli is iffy for the start of their first round playoff series.
First Round vs. Grizzlies: Without a healthy Ginobli, San Antonio may stumble out of the gate and drop one of their first two at home. Memphis can give them some matchup problems with Duncan being hard pressed to counter both Randolph and Gasol. The Spurs need a good series out of Tony Parker to survive a tougher than you think first round.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder finally need to be taken seriously after acquiring Kendrick Perkins. Now with a defensive center and everyone else playing in their natural positions, Oklahoma City may be a dark horse candidate to come out of the West. Jeff Green’s departure has opened up minutes and shots for James Harden, who took full advantage of both the last 2 months of the season. Serge Ibaka is a defensive force, and between Westbrook and Durant, the Thunder have a couple of go-to guys down the stretch.
First Round vs. Nuggets: OKC must feel comfortable matching up with Denver because they gave away the final game of the regular season in order to stay in the 4th spot. They can match the Nuggets athletically and will have an easier time scoring in crunch time with their more proven scorers.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers seemed to fizzle down the stretch (Losing 5 in a row, and barely eking out wins against the Spurs’ bench and the Kings) after a sizzling post-All Star break run (Winning 17 out of 18). Of greater concern to the Lakers though is the health of center Andrew Bynum, who suffered a hyperextension to his surgically repaired right knee. With Kobe slipping a little this year, and super teams like Heat, Thunder, Bulls, and Knicks just on the rise, this may be LA’s last shot at a title before their window of opportunity closes.
First Round vs. Hornets: The Lakers couldn’t ask for a better first round matchup to get back the mojo they seemed to lose at the end of the season. They dominated New Orleans this year, and that was with David West on the floor for the Hornets. If I were Phil Jackson, I might even consider sitting Bynum the first couple games of this series.
2. Miami Heat
With the Celtics reeling since the Perkins trade, all of a sudden the Heat are becoming a trendy pick to represent the East in the Finals. It’s easy to see why. When you have the two best players in league, you cannot be counted out. Their lack of depth won't be as much of a factor in the playoffs, when they can play their big three 40+ minutes a game. An interesting note on LeBron: He had a worse regular season record playing with Wade and Bosh than he did each of the past two years with his Cavs teams.
First Round vs. 76ers: This will be a good matchup for Miami. The Sixers don’t have anyone inside to hurt them and the Heat have the best three players in the series. As good a perimeter defender as Andre Iguodala is, he can’t cover both Wade and LeBron.
1. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls enter the playoffs on a tear, winners of their last 9 and 21 of 23. They’ve got the likely MVP of the league in Derrick Rose, and the best defensive team in the league. It will be interesting to see if they can make the leap from borderline playoff team to Eastern or even NBA champions. I don’t think they’re there yet, but if anyone can prove me wrong it’s Derrick Rose.
First Round vs. Pacers: They’re moving on so I might as well too.
1st Round Predictions:
East
Bulls over Pacers in 4
Heat over Sixers in 5
Celtics over Knicks in 5
Magic over Hawks in 5
West
Spurs over Grizzlies in 6
Lakers over Hornets in 5
Mavericks over Blazers in 7
Thunder over Nuggets in 6
Awards
Most Valuable Player- Derrick Rose (Runner-up: Dirk Nowitzki)
Rookie Of The Year- Blake Griffin (Runner-up: John Wall)
Defensive Player Of The Year- Dwight Howard (Runner up: Andre Iguodala)
Coach Of The Year- Tom Thibodeau (Runner-up: George Karl)
6th Man- Lamar Odom (Runner-up: Jason Terry)
Most Improved Player- LaMarcus Aldridge (Runner-up: Kevin Love)
1st Team All NBA:
Guards- Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade
Forwards- LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki
Center- Dwight Howard
