NFL Preview: AFC East

Yesterday I rounded up previews for the NFC predicting that the Giants would once again finish tops in the East. Today, I stay in the East to begin my AFC previews.

Buffalo Bills
The 2008 Bills were the darlings of September, sporting a perfect 4-0 record before the calendar flipped to October. But beginning with an embarrassing 41-17 loss to Arizona in week 5, the Bills lost 9 of their final 12 games to finish what looked like a promising season at a pedestrian 7-9.
The Bills struggled on offense last year, ranking 25th in total offense and 23rd in scoring. Marshawn Lynch led a rushing attack that was a respectable 14th in the league a year ago, and 11th in rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately Lynch is suspended for the first 3 games of this season, but backup Fred Jackson should be a solid fill-in and will use the opportunity to showcase his skills to be in the mix for a larger share of carries when Lynch returns. The passing game really struggled last year, as quarterback Trent Edwards was accurate but not spectacular. The Bills ended the season 22nd in passing offense and 26th in passing touchdowns. Buffalo took a big leap of faith to address their passing issues, signing aging and alleged locker room killing wide receiver Terrell Owens away from the Cowboys. T.O. can still be a very productive receiver, but he is known for his rocky relationships with his quarterbacks, and Edwards isn't even as good as Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, or Jeff Garcia.
The defense was solid for the Bills last season, finishing 14th overall and 14th in scoring. The 13th rated pass defense in particular was good, allowing the 4th fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. The run defense, however, was not as good, giving up the 22nd most yards on the ground and the 24th most running scores. There wasn't a lot of star power on Buffalo's defensive unit last season, and they sought to address that in this year's draft selecting defensive end Aaron Maybin in the 1st round for some much-needed pass rushing. With defensive tackle Marcus Stroud back, the development of middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, and a healthy Donte Whitner at strong safety, this defense should be solid against the run once more.
The Bills have some intriguing pieces that, if they come together, can have a very successful season. But I don't see Terrell Owens making it through the year happy and who knows how much trouble Marshwn Lynch will get into with the law and/or the commissioner? If the offense has another subpar season, the defense isn't nearly talented or deep enough to carry Buffalo far.
Prediction: 4-12, 4th in the AFC East

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were yet another surprise team last season, who snuck up and captured the division under rookie head coach Tony Sparano. In an amazing turnaround, Miami went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, winning 8 of their final 9 regular season games. Unfortunately for the upstart Dolphins, they ran into a tough Ravens team that bounced them from the playoffs immediately.
What the offense lacked in explosiveness last year, they made up for with creativity. Miami unveiled the new "Wildcat" offense in a stunning 38-13 win over the befuddled Patriots in week 3. Ronnie Brown returned from a serious knee injury to star in the Wildcat, which has now taken the league by storm. Quarterback Chad Pennington, who was spurned by the Jets in favor of that one quarterback who sucks at retiring, upstaged his old team in the final week of the season to clinch a division title. Pennington was as efficient as ever, but also lacked big-time playmaking ability and a true number one receiver. The Dolphins finished 21st in the NFL in scoring last year, but had the league's best turnover differential. They're hoping receiver Ted Ginn Jr. can live up to his promise and make big plays on the outside.
Miami's defense last year was a scrappy bunch who finished 9th in scoring defense. Their 25th rated pass defense struggled at times, but still allowed just the 9th fewest touchdowns passes. Veteran Pro Bowl linebacker Joey Porter showed that he had some gas left in the tank with 17.5 sacks and linebacker Channing Crowder made a lot of noise off the field, but also led a run defense that ranked 10th in the league. Longtime Dolphin great Jason Taylor is back with the Fins after a one year hiatus to try and mold himself into another pass rushing outside linebacker across from Joey Porter. Rookie corner Vontae Davis will try and help that pass defense, as will newly acquired safety Gibril Wilson.
Miami still lacks a potent offense, and teams are prepared for the Wildcat this season, so it will be a real struggle for the Dolphins to put points on the board. With their best players on defense really aging, I don't see the defense carrying them to the postseason again this year. The Dolphins overachieved last year, but I doubt it will happen again in 2009.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in the AFC East

New England Patriots
The Patriots' 2008 season ended a few plays after it began, when golden boy Tom Brady crumpled to the field with a shredded knee. Backup Matt Cassel still led New England to an 11-5 season, but remarkably it wasn't good enough to make the playoffs.
Even without one of the premier quarterbacks of this generation, the Pats' historically good offense didn't slip too much with a guy who hadn't started a game since high school under center. New England finished 5th in total offense and 8th in scoring. Despite having no clear-cut go-to running back, the Patriots were the 6th best rushing squad and finished 4th in the league in rushing touchdowns. They added running back Fred Taylor to be their main ball carrier this year, but they'll still give 4 or even 5 different backs touches in a single game. With a healthy Brady ready to go this year, New England should easily surpass their passing marks from last season which had them 12th in pass offense and 13th in yards per attempt. Randy Moss should get back to his record-setting receiving ways with Brady at the helm and Wes Welker should easily reach the 100 reception mark for the third consecutive season. Adding veteran wideout Joey Galloway just gives Brady another reliable target to throw to.
The Patriots fielded a solid defense again last season, finishing 10th overall and 8th in scoring. An ancient linebacking corps held up for perhaps the final time, allowing the 4th fewest rushing touchdowns. The Pats did get beat through the air regularly though, giving up the 2nd most passing scores in the league. Their trio of veteran linebackers have all departed as has veteran safety Rodney Harrison. New England's defense should still improve though as they get younger and faster, anchored by linebacker Jerod Mayo. Adding cornerback Shawn Springs to a somewhat depleted secondary should solidify their back four as well. The Patriots traded away Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour today, but their newfound depth up front should keep them solid there.
Even if their defensive situation remains a bit iffy, it won't hurt them enough to cause significant damage to their season. This offense looks primed to pick up where it left off in 2007, when it broke just about every offensive record in NFL history. The Patriots still have something to prove after having a perfect 2007 spoiled in the Super Bowl and missing the postseason last year for the first time in 6 seasons. I expect them to show no mercy and steamroll opponents into submission with a virtually unstoppable offensive attack. They'll be one of the best teams in the league and a 4th Super Bowl title this decade is well within reach.
Prediction: 14-2, 1st in the AFC East

New York Jets
The Jets were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders last year after bringing in a quarterback that they thought could take them the distance. And for a while things were looking great, as they lost just 1 game between the third week of September and Thanksgiving. With an 8-3 record, the Jets had all but sewed up a division crown, when their quarterback decided he could do it on his own and ended up losing 5 of their final 6 games before deciding to retire....again. (Not that that stopped him from unretiring this year....again) At 9-7, the Jets fell to third in the division and out of the playoffs.
New York brings in another new quarterback, this time a rookie who they traded up in this year's draft to get, Mark Sanchez. With a guy who only started one year at college getting used to the NFL version of the game, the Jets figure to rely heavily on a running game that was 9th in the league last year, 5th in yards per carry, and 5th in rushing touchdowns. Pro Bowler Thomas Jones is 31 now, which is about 131 in running back years, but New York promises to give electric All Pro return man Leon Washington significantly more touches out of the backfield to help Jones out. Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery is the clear number one now with Laveraneous Coles no longer in the Big Apple, and he along with promising young tight end Dustin Keller will try to make things easier in the passing game for Sanchez. The Jets hope that the rookie won't throw even half as many interceptions as the old guy did last year to lead the league in that category.
The Jets had a run of the mill defense last year that ranked 16th overall and 18th in scoring. Their 29th rated pass defense was a mess though, as Pro Bowl corner Darrelle Revis did not get much help. The Jets figure to improve significantly on that side of the ball though, with new head coach Rex Ryan bringing his schemes and some of his personnel over from the formidable Baltimore Ravens defense. All Pro Bart Scott joins Eric Barton, David Harris, and Calvin Pace on a strong linebacking corps that can rush the passer and assist Pro Bowl nose tackle Kris Jenkins on the 7th best run stopping unit from last season. Former Raven Jim Leonhard and veteran corner Lito Sheppard will bolster a secondary that had trouble against the pass.
The Jets will find themselves in a lot of games down the stretch with an improved defense and solid running game, but can an unproven rookie quarterback with limited offensive weapons really win those games and get this team to the playoffs? I'm saying no, but Mark Sanchez will try and continue the success of rookie quarterbacks established by Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco a year ago.
Prediction: 7-9, 2nd in the AFC East