Sunday, May 31, 2009
Vamos...Rafa??
With Nadal out at the French, the tournament has become wide open, with several players now capable of capturing the title. The man who stands to gain the most is probably Roger Federer. The 13-time Grand Slam champion has never won this tournament, losing to Nadal each of the last 4 years (including the last 3 finals). With 4th seeded Novak Djokovic also falling yesterday, Federer's draw has opened up in his favor. Both his probable semifinal and final opponent are now gone, clearing the way for Federer to tie Pete Sampras' mark of 14 career Grand Slam singles titles. Also benefiting is Andy Murray, the 3rd seed who would have had to face Nadal in the semis. Murray has risen through the tennis ranks rapidly over the last year, reaching last year's U.S. Open final and climbing to a career high number 3 in the rankings. He is still looking for his first career Grand Slam. American Andy Roddick, the 6th seed, also may have some hope, though this is the farthest he has ever advanced in this tournament. Standing in his way are a couple homeland french favorites, 11th seeded Gael Monfils (whom Roddick faces tomorrow) and 9th seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who plays No. 5 Juan Martin del Potro tomorrow) as well as Federer likely looming in the semis. In a tournament that has lacked upsets, the biggest one of all came today.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
NBA Finals Set
Well said Kevin. King James was dethroned by Superman's Magic. How many people had Cleveland as a lock to make the Finals? I'm guessing the number is around 90% of NBA followers. And yes, I was one of them. I thought they were a lock thanks to KG being out for the Celtics. I didn't trust the Magic at all, but it turns out that the Cavs could not handle them one bit (more on the Magic coming soon). LeBron couldn't handle it to the point that after the thorough demolition from the Magic in the series clincher, he walked off the court without shaking hands with his opponents or acknowledging their accomplishment and avoided the post game press conference as well. You stay classy King James. So much for the Chosen One. What does this mean for LeBron and the Cavs? I'm glad I asked. (You know you were thinking it too)
First, it is the ulitmate proof that Bron-Bron's supporting cast is nowhere near as good as people thought they were. Start with his frontcourt, where his bigs are Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Ben Wallace, and Joe Smith. Aside from Varejao, who would not be starting for any other team in the league, the other 3 are all 33 years of age or older, well past the prime for big men. None of them can play big minutes anymore, nor can they provide much interior defense (unless you call Varejao's flops defense). Wallace and Varejao are two of the most offensively challenged big men in the league, while the ability for Ilgauskas or Smith to get their own shot has diminished so much that they resorted to spotting up behind the 3-point line to get looks. Don't get me wrong, they both have nice outside touches, but do you really want Zydrunas Ilgauskas or Joe Smith shooting mulitple threes for you? Is that a good offense? Ask Mike Brown, reigning coach of the year. (Yes, that was meant to be sarcastic) On to the wings, where Wally Szczerbiak and Sasha Pavlovic reside. They combined to provide 11.6 points per game on the season in about 37 combined minutes. Is that the production you want to provide your superstar with? While they have the ability to knock down open threes, which opposing wings can they defend? The answer isn't Hedo Turkoglu, Mikhael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, or anyone on the Magic...except maybe JJ Redick. Maybe. Chances are they're giving up waaaay more than the 11.6 points they get you in their 37 minutes of action. As for the guards, Cleveland's Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Daniel Gibson have an average height of 6-2. Needless to say this causes matchup problems when the Magic have 6-10 Hedo Turkoglu running the point in crunch time. Again, these guys can hit open shots, but who can they check? Aside from West, they are below average defenders. Gibson's nickname is "Booby" which is all that needs to be said there. West didn't even start for a horrendous Celtics team 2 years ago and said European teams had large contracts on the table for him when negotiating a new deal with the Cavs this past summer, only news broke that no European team was even considering signing him. Keep it real Delonte. And Mo Williams, the gem that Cleveland stole from the Bucks prior to the season? It is an absolute crime that he is an all star guard. (Though he was a third injury replacement that they had to force in because Cleveland's record was so good) Williams is not even one of the top 20 guards in the league. Here are some other point guards: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, Baron Davis, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Jose Calderon, Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Andre Miller. Would you take Mo Williams as your starting point guard over any of those 12 guys? And yet, he was an all star. Replace him with Kirk Hinrich (who didn't even start for a Bulls team that finished 25 games behind Cleveland) and I doubt the Cavs are any worse off. In fact, they're probably better off because Hinrich can actually defend. Williams went from vastly underrated to vastly overrated in about a nanosecond after the Cavs took off. Sure he can knock down open threes but what else can he do? A point guard who barely gets 4 assists a game and can't stop the likes of Rafer Alston shouldn't be running a championship team. Cleveland's lack of a supporting cast was their downfall, as the Magic just had more talent spread over their entire rotation. The Cavs' lack of playoff experience also showed. For Williams and West, this was their first trip to a conference finals and they struggled to hit wide open three pointers that they drained with regularity during the regular season. With a little pressure on, the Cavs wilted, one miracle LeBron shot away from being swept. Their coach of the year had no answers for the Master of Panic himself and guys 2-12 on their roster were exposed.
Second, could this seal LeBron's departure in the summer of 2010? It seemed almost a foregone conclusion at the start of the season. With free agency looming, the lure of New York City would be too much for LeBron to resist. The Knicks were shedding payroll like they were getting ready to pay him A-Rod money, Mike D'Antoni took over and implemented a system that could turn lebron into a statistical monster, and there was no hope of a title in Cleveland with the mighty Celtics and Lakers looking set to dominate the next couple of years. Then came a season that Cleveland fans could hardly dream about. The Cavs land Mo Williams for nothing. Now LeBron finally has all the help he needs. He leads them to the best record in the NBA, securing home court advantage throughout the playoffs. He makes commercials where he plays for the hometown Cleveland Browns (though he chilled with the Dallas Cowboys when they came to play the Browns). He says all the right things and appears ready to rid Cleveland of their championship woes once and for all. The Chosen One. A hometown hero who would save an entire city by himself. The youngest MVP in nearly 4 decades. The playoffs began with back-to-back sweeps with all wins coming by double digit points and 15 point halftime lead in game 1 of the conference finals. Then it all came crashing down. The Magic come back and beat them on their home floor where they had won 43 of their 45 games during the year. Next thing you know, LeBron is blowing off his opponents and the media on his way home for the summer. Will it be the last he spends in Cleveland? The lure of New York is still there, and it may be even more enticing after the realization that this Cavs team cannot win it all. That much is clear. LeBron still does not have the supporting cast he needs to win. The Cavs went just 3-8 against the two teams participating in the NBA Finals. Can the Cavs give him what he needs to win a championship next season and stay in Cleveland? They wasted an excellent opportunity to acquire a top player via a trade with Wally Szczerbiak's nearly $14 million expiring contract. Replace Wally with Vince Carter, Michael Redd, or Shaquille O'Neal and maybe this Cavs team is still undefeated in the postseason. Even with Wally's ridiculous contract coming off the books, the Cavs are still more than $10 million dollars over the cap (and the cap may be going backwards next year). With the economy in its present state, will the Cavs be willing to spend big money on a top free agent? The perfect fit for this team would be the best free agent to be Carlos Boozer, but he would not be welcome back on the team he ditched a few years ago. Do you overpay for Hedo Turkoglu or Shawn Marion, both of whom have already reached their peaks and are starting their declines? Tonight's loss may have already made up James' mind. If he leaves after next season, the Cavs will see him go without getting anything back in return, while their team will be mired with bad contracts and minimal talent. Will the Cavs do the unthinkable and trade LeBron before next season's trade deadline, hoping to get back at least 20 cents on the dollar for him? Cleveland shall suffer from its championship drought for at least another year (unless you believe in Brady Quinn).
Thirdly, and most importantly, what about these fantastic Nike Basketball ads featuring Kobe Bryant and LeBron James puppets? Who knows how many of these commercials they made in preparation for a seemingly inevitable Kobe-Lebron finals matchup. I for one am sad to see it end so soon. Is it too late to sign Dwight Howard to Nike and give him a puppet? Maybe LeBron overdoses on chalk...errr...i mean...moves to New York in search of his own championship rings and Dwight moves in with Kobe. They should at least have one final one featuring LeBron with headphones on trying to ignore Kobe's questions that the media would have asked him had he not blown them off. Please Nike, do it for the fans.
Lakers-Nuggets Series Recap
Coming into the series, these were my thoughts. (By the way, I'm a Lakers fan. So while I try to remain objective...I'm still a Lakers fan) I was absolutely convinced that the Nuggets were nowhere near as good as people were making them out to be coming in. I figured, "Hey, they're the Nuggets. I mean, what have they ever done in the playoffs?" Which is true, they'd never made the NBA Finals (still haven't =D), this was their first trip to the conference finals since 1985, and since Carmelo came along in 2003-04 they had been knocked out of the playoffs in round 1 5 straight years--including a 5 game schalacking at the hands of the CLIPPERS!!! in '06 and a sweep by the Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza-less Lakers last season.
(Side note: How come when people talk about last year's Lakers team that came up short, they always put the asterisk of Bynum being out, but never talk about Ariza not being there? I mean, look who's more important and playing better this postseason. (Hint: not the guy who got the $12.5 million a year extension earlier this season) True, Ariza's 3 point shooting wasn't there a year ago, but his hustle, athleticism, and defensive skills were sorely missed. Remember, the Lakers had Vladimir Radmonovic and Luke Walton take turns guarding Paul Pierce in the finals last season. Think that made it easier for Pierce to get his Finals MVP? The correct answer is an emphatic YES.)
Sure, the Billups trade made Denver a different and significantly better team, but good enough to challenge the Lakers, who finished one spot, but 11 games ahead of the Nuggets in the Western Conference standings? I thought not. It was a mirage. People were blinded by Chris "Birdman" Andersen's colorful tattoos. Here was a team who, as gaudy as that 58 point road drubbing was, needed 5 games to knock off an absolutely skeletal Hornets squad who had quit on their coach 3 months ago. Any other team could have swept that series right? Then against the Mavs, the Nuggets were one atrocious officiating call away from being tied 2-2 after 4 games. That could have been a long, drawn-out affair like the Lakers-Rockets series. Again, not as impressive as people made it out to be. And of course, they were still the Nuggets, the team full of knuckleheads and according to Mark Cuban, "thugs", whom the Lakers had never had a problem beating in the playoffs (won previous 9 games and all 4 series). To me, it seemed the Lakers should be able to take care of business in 5, except their Complacency Syndrome might take it to 6 or even 7 like the previous series. I was wrong on both counts.
The Nuggets were much MUCH better than I had given them credit for. Their offense featured the ultra-smooth Carmelo, the ultra-clutch Chauncey, and the ultra-attacking everyone else. They got to the line, they got offensive rebounds and putbacks, they got easy baskets off the break, and as many open 3 pointers as a team could want. On defense, they tried. I was genuinely shocked at the defensive effort of Carmelo and particularly J.R. Smith. They played smart, helped, rotated, and gave Lakers other than Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol open shots (the best defense you can play against them). The scariest part was, the Lakers were actually playing hard every game (with the possible exception of game 4, but I think fatigue played a part in that one), contrary to their usual game-to-game lapses. The Nuggets got the Lakers' best effort every game and matched it. The series was dead even after 4 games and 3 quarters and it could have gone either way. Then, 3 things saved the Lakers:
1.) The supporting cast finally came through. The Nuggets' defensive strategy was the same throughout the series. Make someone other than Kobe or Pau beat us. The Pau part was easy. Inexplicably, he hardly touched the ball (just 10 shots per game despite shooting over 63% from the field). This allowed the Nuggets to double team Kobe before he got in a position to shoot and force the ball out of his hands. It worked for the first part of the series. But then, the other guys started coming through. Kobe's passes were awarded 18 assists over the final 2 games. Shannon Brown provided a lift off the bench, literally, lifting off and throwing down on Birdman to spark a Lakers rally in game 5. The long-dormat Sasha Vujacic connected on 50% of his threes over the last half of the series. He, and other struggling shooters Trevor Ariza, Derek Fisher, and Lamar Odom combined to go 14-31 (45.2%) on treys over that span as the Lakers took advantage of the open shots that the Nuggets conceded. Even Luke Walton draws my praise by hitting 5 of his 7 shots (including his first 4) in game 6, stepping up when Ariza was in foul trouble. (Did I just say Luke Walton stepped up??? I need a cold shower)
2.) The Lakers' defense showed up. In the first 4 games of the series it was the Nuggets' bigs who controlled the paint with their aggressive rebounding and spectacular blocked shots. That was not the case over the last 2 series clinching games. The Lakers outblocked the Nuggets 16-8 over the two contests and their big man trio of Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum contributed 47 rebounds compared to Nene, K-Mart, and Birdman's combined 34. The fourth quarter of game 5 was defined by huge defensive stops by the Lakers, as Gasol and Odom controlled the basket area and the Nuggets' potent offense was held to a pedestrian 18 points. The defensive brilliance carried over into game 6 in Denver where the Nuggets averaged over 111 points per game in the playoffs coming in. Their game 6 scoring output? Just 92. The shift in the Lakers' defense can be summed up in the performance of Carmelo Anthony. Melo averaged 31.3 points a game on better than 48% shooting over the first 3 games. Those numbers dropped to 23.7 a game on just 32% shooting for the last 3 games.
3.) "Aggressive" Lamar Odom: The bottom line is when Lamar Odom is on his game, the Lakers are unbeatable. A top 10 NBA talent, when LO unleashes himself, he wreaks havoc on the court. His energy and all around stellar play over the final two games pushed the Lakers over the top. In that pair of games he shot 14-27 from the field (including 3-3 from behind the 3 point line), averaged 19.5 points, 11 boards, and 2 blocks a game, turned the ball over just once, and was a +34 on the court. His howling facial over Birdman and stingy low-post defense was the catalyst for the Lakers running away with the fourth quarter in a pivotal game 5, and don't forget about the two inbounds plays he defended earlier in the series which sealed the first 2 Lakers victories. "The Goods" was nothing but his moniker in the clincher as well.
All-in-all it was a terrific series, competitive and well played (though I can't say the same about the officiating). The Nuggets pushed the Lakers to their next gear, which could be exactly what the team needs in preparation for another tough opponent in the Finals. With the bench back from the dead, "Aggressive" Lamar, Bynum and Ariza in the lineup, quietly consistent Pau, and the best closer in the game, the Lakers are equipped to cash in on their finals trip this time around.