Friday, December 11, 2009

NBA Quarter Pole Power Poll

We're approximately a quarter of the way through the NBA calendar now with every team having played about 20-22 games thus far, so I think it's a good time to take a look at the way things stand to date. A lot has changed since my preseason power rankings. Some things I have been right about, others not so much (...yet. There's a long way to go and by the end I fully expect to be dead right about everything. Everything except for anything. Because that's all that can be expected in a league where you never know what to expect. I hope I've just confused everyone into thinking I'm right). While the top looks pretty much the way I, and most people, thought, there is a huge jumble of messiness after the top 8 or so. If the playoffs started today, both the Thunder and the Bobcats would be actively participating. Wow. Without further ado, let's roll out this batch of holiday rankings.

30. New Jersey Nets
Of course they had to go here after setting a new record for longest losing streak before winning their first game. Injuries have played a large part in that as this team has some nice young talent (Harris, Lopez, CDR, Lee, Yi, Williams) that should be able to compete on a nightly basis. But I'm sure Nets fans don't mind this terrible start too much, as they'll have another high draft pick along with those young guys and cap room to try and lure LeBron and someone else to Jersey (or Brooklyn). Amazingly though, in a conference that has only 5 teams with .500 or better records, an 0-18 start does not eliminate you from playoff contention in the Least...I mean...East.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves
Talent-wise, the T-Wolves may actually be worse than the Nets. Al Jefferson is still slowly getting back into the flow of things and Kevin Love just returned from injury. (One guy that's not stepping on the floor for them anytime soon? Ricky Rubio. Yeah, I had to go there.) Minnesota is starting to play better now that they're getting healthier with recent wins over Denver and Utah, but they still have a long way to go to catch up in the standings to the rest of the West.

28. Indiana Pacers
Here's a usually over-achieving team that's under-achieving right now. They got Mike Dunleavy back but lose their All Star forward Danny Granger for a month and a half because of a bad heel. A team that plays no defense without their best offensive player for that long? Not too many more wins coming before MLK day for this team. And what in the world happened to T.J. Ford?

27. Chicago Bulls
Have they quit on Vinny del Negro already? Derrick Rose hasn't made the leap to superstardom in his second year, and the Bulls are finding it a challenge to score without Ben Gordon lighting it up. Chicago may just be biding their time until the offseason to try and snag Dwyane Wade, but is it safe to rely on that? I'd be surprised if they don't make a play for Chris Bosh or Carlos Boozer before the trade deadline and bull their way into the playoffs. (Sorry, but puns are just too much fun)

26. Philadelphia 76ers
This was supposed to be a team on the rise, but they've fallen before they ever really took off. The Elton Brand signing has been an unmitigated disaster and the Sixers have no one to go to for consistent offense. Iguodala is a tremendous player, but he's just not a great number one option on offense. It's 11 straight losses and counting, but at least Iverson is selling some tickets now.

25. Golden State Warriors
I give up trying to figure out Don Nelson. He's willing to play Vladimir Radmonovic and C.J. Watson 48 minutes, but one of the most intriguing upside guys in the league in Anthony Randolph can't get on the floor for a team that's going nowhere? When he does play he's great (28 and 13 in 35 minutes the other night), so why not develop him? They could have a great future with Randolph, Ellis, Biedrins, Curry, and Morrow, but instead they're content to lose 130-110 every night playing career backups for 40+ minutes. Okay, rant over.

24. New York Knicks
The Knicks are a frisky 3-1 since benching Nate Robinson, one of their 3 best players heading into this season. What does that tell me about New York? Even their best players aren't very good. So, in other words, it tells me nothing. They're still praying they can get rid of Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries to free up some more cap room for LeBron + 1.

23. Milwaukee Bucks
Now that Brandon Jennings has slowed down considerably, Milwaukee's excessive lack of talent is starting to show (8 losses in their last 9 before their last game). How much longer can they afford to swallow ever-absent Michael Redd's contract? Other teams may think he's too much damaged goods to even get much back for him in a trade now.

22. Washington Wizards
Here's another team vastly under-achieving thanks in large part to injuries. Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Mike Miller, and Randy Foye have all missed games thus far. Even so, this team has been way too inconsistent considering all the talent amassed on it. It seems every time they start to get going they curiously drop a couple games they aren't supposed to. I still think they'll get it together and be a force down the stretch, but they're going to need to start playing team basketball instead of each player being focused on getting theirs.

21. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizz are very similar to the Wiz in that they have great individual talent, and early on their results were very similar to Washington's as well. But lately, Memphis has been playing some team ball and it's shown in the win-loss column, including an overtime win over the mighty Cavs the other night. Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo have learned to share the ball better while Marc Gasol has been a rock in the middle (Can't say the same for #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet). Amazingly enough Zach Randolph hasn't murdered this team...yet.

20. Toronto Raptors
The Raps are more of an exciting, fast-paced team this season, but they're just as ineffective at winning games. Just as I thought, Hedo Turkoglu isn't making a huge positive impact on this team, and is actually hurting the effectiveness of Jose Calderon. Meanwhile Chris Bosh is putting up empty Contract Year numbers as it remains evident he has no intent of returning to the Raptors. There's a 90% chance he's not on this squad come March.

19. Sacramento Kings
The Kings have scratched and clawed their way to a respectable mark so far this year, even without leading scorer Kevin Martin and versatile glue guy Francisco Garcia. Tyreke Evans may have taken over favorite status in the ROY race and they're getting major contributions from relative no-names like Beno Udrih and Omri Casspi. I don't think they can continue at this pace, but it's good to see the Kings on the comeback trail with a scrappy and determined young squad.

18. Los Angeles Clippers
After another disappointing start, the Clips have won some games recently. Baron Davis is starting to look like his former self, and the Kaman/Camby combo is a load to handle down low. With all the talent on this roster and #1 overall selection Blake Griffin on the mend, it's clear that the only thing holding this team back is their hapless coach.

17. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are paying Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva an awful lot of money to play 25 minutes a game each off the bench, but lately guys like Jonas Jerebko and scrap heap pickup Will Bynum have energized this team to a few wins and a spot in the East's top eight. Factor in Ben Wallace's revamped defense and Rodney Stuckey's continued improvement, and Detroit may keep their consecutive playoff appearance streak alive once Rip Hamilton gets back and their pricy free agent acquisitions get going.

16. Charlotte Bobcats
Despite being the first team to lose to the woeful Nets, the Bobcats have been otherwise solid. Stephen Jackson has provided some scoring punch and Gerald Wallace is playing at an All Star level. The only thing holding them back is their lack of bigs, so you wonder if Larry Brown will move Boris Diaw soon for some added size up front.

15. New Orleans Hornets
Since firing coach Byron Scott, New Orleans has turned things around, climbing back into the playoff picture. There's still too much of a burden on Chris Paul, especially with David West struggling early on, but they've gotten solid contributions from newly added Emeka Okafor and their rookie guards. The Hornets can give anyone in the league a good game, but their lack of depth will continue to hurt them all year long.

14. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have clearly been the most disappointing team in the league so far, barely above .500 19 games into the season. While their usual injuries have played a part, it seems like their usual team chemistry isn't right. In particular, their big offseason acquisition Richard Jefferson hasn't found his niche or accepted his role on this team. As a result, the Spurs are a paltry 2-8 against teams with winning records. I still trust them to right the ship and be their normally dangerous selves by the time April rolls around.

13. Miami Heat
After a hot (Pun anyone?) start, the Heat have cooled off considerably. Dwyane Wade looks worn down and his shooting percentage has plummeted in comparison to last season. While Michael Beasley seems to be developing bit by bit, there's just not a whole lot of help for Wade in Miami. They'll still be a playoff team in a weak conference (as long as Wade remains healthy), but they won't be a threat to any of the top teams in the East.

12. Portland Trailblazers
There's something just wrong with this team. And I mean aside from the mounting injuries. They're really struggling on offense and a lot of that probably has to do with the misfit of Andre Miller imposing himself in the lineup. The injuries just add to the concern. This was a team that was supposed to take the next step to Contender status, but it already seems like they're going to take a significant step backward this year. Poor, poor Greg Oden. What else can you say?

11. Oklahoma City Thunder
Didn't believe me when I said back in the preseason that the Thunder would challenge for a playoff spot in the West this season? Better believe it now. OKC has won 12 of their first 21 to start the season, and they've done so while playing the second-toughest schedule of any team in the league. Kevin Durant has continued his ascension into the upper echelon of NBA players, currently sitting with the 4th highest scoring average so far this season. With the way this team gets after it on the defensive end, they keep themselves in a lot of basketball games with sheer effort. If they can find some quality size in the frontcourt to complement their high-flying forwards, they can make their way into contention.

10. Utah Jazz
I mentioned Chris Bosh's Contract Year numbers earlier. Well, Carlos Boozer is putting some of those up as well, getting back to his 20-10 ways in the hopes of getting (over)paid next summer. The teammates around him haven't stopped fighting though, as Deron WIlliams and company have overcome a slow start to creep up to second in their division. Once they get a few key role players back from injury they'll be a tough out in the postseason, but the bigger question is if Boozer will be moved before the deadline with Paul Millsap waiting in the wings.

9. Houston Rockets
Another team I thought would challenge for a playoff spot with a bunch of scrappy over-achievers, the Rockets are off to a really good start. Considering they've played the toughest schedule in the league thus far, their 13-9 mark is more than respectable, especially coming off of a double-digit domination of the Cavs. Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks are putting up big numbers in starring roles on offense, and Carl Landry has quietly had a great year off the bench. If they can get anything out of T-Mac this year (It would be most beneficial if they could trade him for players that can help them on the court) Houston will continue to surprise.

8. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have gotten out of the gate hot in 2009, as Dirk Nowitzki has led them to the 3rd best record in the West thus far. They posted an impressive double-digit win over the Lakers in Los Angeles in the first week of the season, and have done all their damage thus far without the services of Josh Howard. If they keep getting contributions off the bench from Drew Gooden and (gulp) Tim Thomas, expect Dallas to keep on rolling.

7. Phoenix Suns
As I proclaimed in the preseason, the Suns are back with a vengeance. They're running and gunning their way to wins once more, and Steve Nash is a prime candidate to take home his third MVP trophy. Despite a bad loss to the Knicks (In which they somehow failed to score 100 points against a team that can't spell defense) and a couple of beatdowns at the hands of the Lakers, you have to give the Suns credit for building such a strong record despite playing the fewest number of home games of any team in the league.

6. Denver Nuggets
The big news out of Denver has been Carmelo Anthony lighting it up nightly and leading the NBA in scoring thus far. The Nuggets have been out to prove that their success last year was no fluke and that they really are the second best team in the West. However, just when you think they can challenge Los Angeles for conference supremacy (Like after they dismantled the Lakers in a matchup last month), they come up with a head-scratching loss (Like dropping a game at home to a T-Wolves team on a 15 game losing skid). It's a good thing rookie Ty Lawson is showing he has some game because Chauncey Billups appears to have lost a step. This team can contend, but are still too undersized to dethrone the reigning champs.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Is the Shaq experiment working? Only time will tell, but for now I find it interesting that O'Neal is getting practically no attention (And not too many minutes either). How long will Shaq be content to let LeBron hog the spotlight? It seems like the Cavs are at their best when he is not on the floor, and that can't sit well with the Big Witness Protection (He can't do much protecting from the sidelines though can he?) Cleveland seems stuck in a rut behind the Celtics and Magic in the East, and that has the entire city is praying that LeBron will remain a Cavalier past 2010 after the Cavs fall short in the playoffs again.

4. Atlanta Hawks
Surprise, surprise. After being unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs by Cleveland last year, Atlanta now appears to pose a serious threat to the Cavs. They're clearly closer to the Big Three in the East than they are to the rest of the pack, and their stellar play thus far has reflected that. Jamal Crawford gives this team some scoring punch off the pine that they have desperately needed and Josh Smith has finally figured out he's 28 times more effective when he doesn't jack up outside jumpers everyone knows he can't make. Their lack of depth up front is still a concern, but the Hawks are definitely on the radar screens of the top teams in the league.

3. Orlando Magic
The Magic don't seemed to have skipped a beat after replacing Hedo Turkoglu with Vince Carter. They're probably the deepest team in the league, and that has made up for the slightly worse play of their starting lineup. I'm not sure you want Carter taking 30 shots a game and Howard taking 4, and offensive strategies such as those will have this team fall short of where they went last year (Last night against the Suns, a team with absolutely no interior defense, Howard took exactly ONE SHOT in 41 minutes. Lunacy like that deserves a loss). Even though All Star Jameer Nelson has been sidelined for a second consecutive season with a major injury, Orlando continues to go out and win. They've dropped their last two though, (Tough back-to-back set on the road at Utah and Phoenix) and now have to worry about the Hawks challenging them for the division lead.

1B. Boston Celtics
1A. Los Angeles Lakers

These two titans of the NBA are on a collision course for a 2008 Finals rematch. They're clearly the class of their respective conferences. Both teams are riding 9+ game win streaks and have the two largest margins of victory by a wide margin over the rest of the league.
The Celtics have gotten it done with their standard stingy defense. Their Big Three looks old at times, but not often enough to count them out. Their full powers won't be needed until the playoffs anyways. However the emergence of Rajon Rondo and even Kendrick Perkins has the Celts covered for now, and they will only be strengthened by the returns of Big Baby Davis and Marquis Daniels to their bench.
The Lakers were off to a good start even without Pau Gasol. With their All Star forward back in the lineup, the Lakers are in the midst of an 11 game winning streak with an average margin of victory of 16 points a game. Their offense is a well-oiled machine with an unrivaled post-up game and improving long range shooting. Their bench has picked up their play led by Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown, with Jordan Farmar picking it up lately as well. A healthy Andrew Bynum is on track to make his first All Star team and Kobe Bryant is still the best player in the league. The most noticeable change in this team is their defense that currently ranks among the best in the league, which has been keyed by Ron Artest. He's clearly been an upgrade over Trevor Ariza thus far, especially on the defensive end. He hasn't caused any problems on the court yet, and despite some crazy antics and comments off of it (Admitting to drinking alcohol during halftime of games when he played for the Bulls and showing up to Jimmy Kimmel Live in just his boxer shorts) the team has responded by not even noticing. That's a good sign that Artest won't be a distraction and this Lakers squad will cruise through the West as long as they avoid major injuries (It will be interesting to see how Kobe's fractured index finger will affect him and the team). Hopefully come June, we'll be seeing a classic NBA Finals pitting the clear-cut best teams in the association. (With the Lakers emerging victorious of course)

Saturday, December 5, 2009

The Question

Why all the hate for Allen Iverson?

It's a simple question really, but one that even The Answer probably has no simple answer for. Is it really just because of the way he looks, or how he has come across as a person, or his game on the court? Where others see problems, I see a player. A great player. A player who has gone vastly underappreciated considering all he has accomplished in his career. Love him or hate him, Allen Iverson has been arguably the most influential basketball player in the last 15 years, both on and off the court. You look at the NBA now, and you see basketball culture fused with hip-hop culture. Why? The answer is The Answer. Literally. Allen Iverson ushered in the hip-hop era of basketball. From his flashy game, to his his style, to the way he carries himself (And even his failed attempt at rapping, but let's not speak of that again), Iverson was the first to merge the two now inseparable movements. Magic and Jordan never brought to mind hip-hop. Bird was the opposite of it. It all started with Iverson, and now there's hardly a player in the league whose iPod isn't dominated by the likes of Jay-Z and Kanye West. For better or worse, this made Iverson more than a ball player. It made him an icon. His style was profoundly emulated, from the full-body tats, to the baggy shorts, to the jersey 3 sizes too large, to the corn rows, to the nasty crossovers, to the arm sleeves now unnecessarily worn by too many players, A.I. was the pioneer for it all. He changed the game in a way that perhaps no player before him ever did, and something has to be said for that.

On the court Iverson has achieved a lot as well. All Star appearances, MVPs, scoring titles, a trip to the Finals, his resume only lacks a ring. People have always been on him about being a ballhog and a selfish gunner, but is he so much different than other superstars? Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade always have the ball in their hands, and they too love jacking up shot after shot. Why does the "selfish" label not follow them? They dribble around for 20 seconds before passing out of triple-teams to get their assists. Why does that make them team players when Iverson does the same thing?

You have to give the guy some credit now. He has played every game like it was last. You can never question his will or desire the way you can with some other superstars. The injuries he played through were numerous. No one hit the ground more times than he did, and no one got up more times than he did. Despite being the smallest guy on the court virtually every time he played, he was always the most feared. He is quite possibly the greatest scorer in the history of the game. Listed at just 6 feet tall (Yeah right, maybe standing on a phone book), the guy won FOUR scoring titles, averaged over 30 points per game 4 times in a 5 year span, and boasts the SIXTH best career scoring average of ALL TIME. No other player in the top FIFTY of that illustrious list is under 6-foot-3, or within a good 4-5 inches of Iverson. Think about the insane disparity there. How great of a scorer does he have to be to overcome a physical limitation like that which has so clearly affected that aspect of the game historically. Imagine for a second if he was just 6 inches taller. Would he average 30 a game for his career? 32? 34? The possibilities are staggering.

There's a knock on him that he never led his team to a championship. You don't need me to tell you that other great players have gone ring-less as well (Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Ewing, Reggie, Dominique, Kidd, Nash). And he came pretty darn close, getting to the 2001 NBA Finals, and handing the Lakers their ONLY loss of that postseason in spectacular fashion on the road in Los Angeles (48 points and the Tyronn Lue shot). People say that a team can't win when they are based so solely around a single player. I submit to you the current Cleveland Cavaliers. Now THAT is a team based solely around one guy (LeBron). As has been made clear throughout his career, he's the only one on that team. He single-handedly led them to the Finals in 2007. He was the only reason they were not swept in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Watch the Cavs play when LeBron is on the bench. They're terrible. I don't know if this Cleveland team sans LeBron would make the playoffs even in the East. And yet, James is surrounded by more talent than Iverson ever had. Why does no one talk about his failings as a leader or a team player? Why does no one say LeBron's style isn't conducive to winning titles? Because he averages 7 assists a game? The ball is always in his hands. He's the only one on that team who can even GET assists, just like Iverson in his heyday. I don't see much of a difference in their careers to date (Statistical monsters who fall short in the postseason), yet James gets all praise and Iverson gets all ridicule.

A lot of that ridicule goes towards Allen Iverson the person. I agree that he's made his fair share of mistakes, but why keep harping on them? How many players go through their careers without problems off the court? It's pretty rare. And as Iverson has gotten older, those problems haven't cropped up, yet it is still impossible for him to escape their shadow. His personality and lifestyle make him who he is, even on the court. He has been called out for being defiant and being a rebel, but that force of personality is a common thread among most NBA greats, whether it's Kobe's frigid arrogance, LeBron's pompous dance moves, Shaq's lyrical barbs, or KG's incessant chirping. Even Michael Jordan's Hall of Fame speech dripped with contempt for his peers. Yet more criticism is heaped on A.I. than any of them. What about the positives of his personality? He wears his heart on his sleeve. He is never afraid to speak his mind. Hardly any athlete of this generation has given us as much access to their own mind and heart, something all of us crave in this day and age of Twitter and Facebook. He's always been a terrific interview and has given us the greatest press conference of all time (As well as this great spin-off video). His love and passion for the game has always been apparent, and he has shown contrition for his previous errors. Instead of looking down on him in contempt, people should appreciate how media and fan-friendly he has been throughout his career, and how easy he has made it to follow him, even before the age of Twitter. It's part of the reason why Iverson has been so influential and had such a huge impact on so many people and players throughout the nation.

I predicted before the season started that Allen Iverson would get his revenge this year. A man with so much pride and and defiance badly wanted to show that he could still play at a high level in the NBA. So far, it hasn't happened. But it's not his fault. Memphis clearly did not use him properly and it was best for both sides that he left. Now hopefully the Sixers will give him the opportunity he craves. The team and the city needs it. With Elton Brand's career falling off a cliff and the injury to Lou Williams, Philadelphia finds itself lacking playmakers and guys who can get their own shot. While Andre Iguodala is a great player, he's not a guy you want to go to as your number one option on offense. He's too inefficient and has a very inconsistent jump shot. Iggy is much better suited to slashing when he has the chance, cutting to the basket, running his lane, and catching and finishing around the rim (Think Shawn Marion on the Suns a few years ago). The emerging Thaddeus Young has similar strengths and weaknesses. Add Iverson to the mix, and not only can he get his own shot more effectively than they can, he can also create for them and get them easier looks at the basket. While he may still be a "selfish" gunner, he can keep the team in games by himself. And with good defenders behind him, he can go after steals like he has always excelled at. If used properly, there's no way he can't help the Sixers. I don't understand how people got the idea that his game has totally diminished and that he's lost a few steps. We haven't even seen the guy play in 2 years. He hasn't this year, and don't tell me last year's disaster season in Detroit counts. That wasn't him and everyone knows it. The last time we saw the real Iverson play, he was putting up over 26 points, 7 assists, and 2 steals in nearly 42 minutes per game for the Nuggets. I've seen nothing in his game or abilities to show me that he can't come close to those numbers now (After he gets back in game shape of course). He's had significant time off the last year and a half so you know he's fresh, and you certainly know that he's motivated.

Allen Iverson has been one of my favorite players in the league throughout his career and I have loved following him for who he is, a great player and a fascinating person in his own right. Instead of dwelling so much on his shortcomings and criticizing his personality and decisions (Because he is who he is and that's clearly not going to change), let's celebrate his achievements and pull for him to go out with a bang in true Iverson fashion. I wish him nothing but great success in his last hurrah, and I wish that more people did the same.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Appreciate the Smoothies

No, not that kind of smoothie!! As we have now sunk our teeth into the new NBA season, talk over potential All-Star and MVP candidates is beginning to heat up, and all the usual suspects are at the top of the list. I encourage NBA fans to take a closer look at some slightly underrated players before filling out their All-Star ballots and throwing themselves behind an MVP candidate. There is a common thread among these players that makes them a little undervalued. They’re what I like to call “smooth” players. People know that these guys are good, but I don’t think they realize just how good they are. Fans today are enamored with highlight plays, and as a result the players who make those plays get elevated just a little bit more, while guys who do things the more conventional way are overlooked a bit. People are mesmerized by LeBron’s monster dunks, Dwight’s emphatic rejections, D-Wade’s magical circus shots, Kobe’s fadeaway jumpers over multiple defenders, and naturally put them at the top of list of the game’s elite. But there are other, less noticeable names that belong in that exclusive club as well.


Any conversation about the quietly great begins and ends with the Big Fundamental, Tim Duncan. Timmy D has subtly been the premiere post player of the last decade, the only big man left in the game who dominates on both ends of the floor. Obviously everyone knows he’s good, evidenced by him starting in the All Star Game every year, but I don’t think they appreciate how HISTORICALLY good he’s been. There’s a reason people like Charles Barkley (A pretty darn good power forward himself) call him the greatest power forward of all time. I named him my MVP of the 2000s over players like Kobe and Shaq. His unmatched banking prowess and shutdown interior defense go largely unnoticed. The reason why, as a Lakers fan, I am more worried about the Spurs than any other team in the league is that Duncan is the one player who can handle the Lakers front line. And he can do it by himself.


Another big man whose smooth game gets lost in the shuffle primarily because he plays with a highlight heavyweight is Pau Gasol. If you’ve never watched Gasol closely, trust me, you’re missing out. A couple of years ago I myself believed that Gasol was overrated and really wasn’t that good. Now after the All Star appearances, championship spotlight, and acting guest spots, I think he’s rather underrated (As a player, not an actor. Side Note: WHY would anyone want Pau Gasol to act in any role in which he does not play himself unless it was on a show aired in Spain??? He’s not popular enough in the States to attract a larger TV audience). He’s the perfect sidekick for Kobe. He does whatever the team needs, cares nothing for his stats, and has a wide range of skills he can use. From scoring efficiently with either hand in the post, to knocking down open mid-range jumpers, to hitting cutters in stride, to running the floor, to rebounding on both ends, to protecting the rim, Gasol does it all without needing the ball, or the spotlight, too much. And if he needs to, he can carry a team for stretches himself.


Sticking to bigs, a third who flies under the radar is Al Jefferson. While a lot of that has to do with him being stuck on a bad team in a small market, Jefferson was unheralded even during his time in Boston, though those were some bad teams too as people seem quick to forget. Jefferson may just be developing into the best low-post scorer in the game. He averaged 23 points per game a year ago on 50% shooting to go along with 11+ rebounds, yet failed to make the All Star team over a lesser player like David West. It’s a shame. Big Al can just flat out score on the block, with more post moves than any opponent can guard. He’s what Dwight Howard should have been on offense. For his sake, I hope he can get out of Minnesota, but first I hope he can get his proper recognition because I still don’t hear his name mentioned when people talk about the best big men in the league.


It’s not all about the big men though. Leading the smooth swingmen is my boy Brandon Roy. People really don’t know how good this young guy is. Last year John Hollinger wrote about how Roy is the seventh best player in the NBA, and he is not crazy. I’ve been big on Roy since his college days, but I knew he was the real deal after watching a game two years ago. It was a nationally televised contest against the Heat and Roy (At the time, in just his second season as a pro) was matched up on veteran superstar Dwyane Wade. Roy DOMINATED Wade. I mean, it wasn’t even close. He made Wade look like a scrub on defense. And what really shocked me was that Roy looked like he was moving in slow motion. Yet, one of the most athletic guards in the league couldn’t stay with him. His series of crossovers, changes of pace, fakes, and step-backs, all without breaking a sweat, had Wade scrambling to keep up. Roy can be the best player on the floor at any given time and I believe he is one of the few franchise players in the NBA.


If you had one possession to win the game, which player in the league would you want to have the ball? I’d be hard pressed to take anyone over Carmelo Anthony. He’s arguably the best pure scorer in the league. Obviously he came into the league with a lot of hype and is well-known throughout the nation, but I’m not sure people really appreciate his mastery of the art of scoring the basketball. There isn’t anyone under 7 feet tall who gets his points easier than Melo. The way he scores at will makes it look so easy. Now that he has an effective outside jumper and added three point range to his arsenal, there’s just no stopping his lethal combination of size, strength, quickness, and athleticism. It just seems like he expends half the energy of Kobe, LeBron, and Wade to score the same amount, and because of that people don’t put him in the same class of scorers as those guys. Time to put an end to that. And going back to that end-of-game possession; last season Melo shot 56.5% from the field, 58.3% from three, and got to the line more frequently than any other player in the league in the clutch. That was far better than Kobe, LeBron, or Wade. See why it’s hard not to take him there?


Another “smoothie” who’s among the game's greats is Joe Johnson. JJ rose out of obscurity in Boston to shine with the first fast-paced Suns team (Imagine if Phoenix decided to pay him), parlaying his breakout 2005 campaign into a big contract with Atlanta. Johnson has lived up to the billing, leading the young Hawks to back-to-back playoff appearances and their first postseason series win in a couple decades. He’s blossomed into a perennial All Star with his smooth game. He’s another one of those guys who looks like he’s moving slower than everyone else, yet gets to his spots and gets off that pretty jump shot. He’s also very calm handling the basketball and can make plays for his teammates. I believe he’s properly rated now, but people still tend to forget about him when discussing the top shooting guards in the NBA.


So what makes some players smooth and others not? Is there a common thread among them? I think it’s difficult to pinpoint a single factor, but one interesting thing to note is the career path of the players. A big difference between highlight reel players like say LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Howard, and Josh Smith and their smoother counterparts listed above is college experience. Examine those two lists. All the highlight guys except for Wade came straight out of high school. Meanwhile, all of the smooth guys (excluding Gasol who came from overseas where things are different) except for Al Jefferson attended college, two of them for the full four years. Could it be that playing college basketball teaches you more of the fundamentals of the game and makes you a better NBA player if you’re not a top-notch athlete? It’s tough to say for certain, but it is interesting to see the discrepancy. Whatever the reason is, just remember not to discount smooth players for making the game look so easy.

Monday, October 26, 2009

2009-2010 NBA Preview

Move over football! Basketball is back!! With the end of October comes the beginning of the NBA season, and the beginning of the Lakers' defense of their 15th title. (Did I mention the Lakers won their 15th title last year??) Here you will find previews for all 30 teams done power rankings style for who I think is better than who. I've broken the teams down into 5 groups (the Wannabes, the Hopefuls, the Pretenders, the Dark Horses, and the Contenders) based on each team's championship aspirations. After that comes predictions for the upcoming season and finally a fantasy basketball draft guide to live by for all you fantasy geeks out there. So sit down and kick back...this may take a while.


Wannabes

These are the teams that have absolutely no hope for the upcoming season. They might as well just start tanking now and prepare for the 2010 NBA draft.


30. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks let three of their five starters from a 34 win team a season ago leave without getting anything back. The other two starters played a combined 69 games last year. Top pick Brandon Jennings and head coach Scott Skiles are sure to clash over playing philosophy. Their last couple first rounders have been busts in Joe Alexander and the now departed Yi Jianlian. A huge step backwards for Milwaukee this season.


29. Sacramento Kings

A team in desperate need of a point guard passing on Ricky Rubio in the draft? Tyreke Evans may be talented, but you can’t convince me he’s going to learn how to run the point. There’s a lot of scoring in the backcourt with him and oft-injured Kevin Martin, but also a lot of 1-on-5 plays. A young front line of Hawes and Thompson could be promising, but the West is loaded with huge, talented frontcourts so it’ll take a lot of development for these kids to catch up. It doesn’t help losing glue guy and underrated all-rounder Garcia for 4 months to a freak injury. Another year without the cowbells ringing at Arco.


28. New Jersey Nets

Devin Harris has proven to be a beast and Brook Lopez surprised many by ascending the ranks of big men in the league so quickly. But after that, what is there? A lot of young guys, but none without question marks. Can Yi ever look good playing against something other than a chair? Can CDR score in the pros? Does Courtney Lee have any offense? Can Terrence Williams consistently play at the level he is capable of? If all those guys pan out then great. If, as is likely, that is not the case, New Jersey can hope for a move to Brooklyn, a Russian mobster for an owner, a shot at signing LeBron, and stories of Brook Lopez holding up piñatas for kids at their birthday parties for a mere $25,000. Oh what a deal!


27. Memphis Grizzlies

If anyone can tell me what the Grizzlies’ plans are, I’d love to hear it. Already with two gunners in Mayo and Gay, the Grizz add Iverson and Randolph. Those four alone will be putting up 80+ shots a game. Marc Gasol seemed to develop nicely last year, but walking bust, I mean, number two overall pick Thabeet will have to be in the lineup regularly to justify his draft slot. I say Memphis will play roulette in the locker room before the game to decide who’s going to get the touches on offense that night. The league must be terrified that the Grizzlies will figure out in the middle of the season that this team isn’t working out and try and trade Mayo or Gay to a contender for a bag of beans and some future conditional draft picks.


26. New York Knicks

No Knick fan cares about this season. All the buzz in the Big Apple will be over whether LeBron will be calling the Garden home in 2010, and will he be bringing some more star power with him? In the meantime, the team will be working much harder on trading Eddy Curry and/or Jared Jeffries’ contracts than attempting to play a lick of defense.


Hopefuls

These teams are on the outside looking in. Some have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, some are just hoping to continue their rebuilding process, and one is hoping they don’t fall out of the playoff race.


25. Minnesota Timberwolves

They’ve got one stud in Al Jefferson, but not a whole lot around him. The Ricky Rubio situation hasn’t worked out for this season at least, and I think they botched their whole draft with their back-to-back point guard picks. After signing Ramon Sessions as well, who gets the minutes at the point for the T-Wolves? Big Al is coming off of a serious knee injury and K-Love is hurt now too. The departure of Mike Miller and Randy Foye leaves this squad really lacking quality swingmen. If Kurt Rambis learned anything under Phil Jackson, he could begin to turn them around, but I don’t see a huge improvement after they didn’t upgrade their talent a whole lot.


24. Indiana Pacers

Can Danny Granger be the best player on a championship team? I feel he’s more the Pippen type than the Jordan type, offensively anyways, and while he’s a fantasy monster, he’s one of those guys whose numbers are pretty empty. I respect that the Pacers are trying to rebuild their image post-Palace fiasco, but Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansborough, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts, and Travis Diener aren’t going to carry you far on the floor. The upside is though, we can see the first time five white guys are on the court for one team in about three decades. If we could get a picture of five of those guys walking onto the floor together, it would make an awesome poster.


23. Golden State Warriors

The one constant for the Dubs is that they’re going to be an entertaining team to keep tabs on. They’ve got more talent than a bunch of teams ahead of them on this list, but they’re run by a mad scientist and their players seem like mismatched puzzle pieces. Don Nelson has no rational method of giving out minutes to his guys, or even having them suit up for games. Captain Jack is already loudly complaining that he wants out, and we’ve seen before that once you get into Nellie’s doghouse, you rarely make it out on good terms. Monta Ellis claims that he can’t share a backcourt successfully with Stephen Curry, something that has to kill a rookie’s confidence. And Ellis himself is coming off of an ugly injury cover-up incident last year. One bright spot could be the development of second year player Anthony Randolph, who everyone around the league agrees has almost unlimited untapped upside (It’s pretty hard to alliterate with U’s. Give me some credit.) Golden State has the talent to win 45 games this year, but the dilemmas to win just 25. Personally, I think it will tend closer to the lower number.


22. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are a year removed from putting the biggest scare of any team in the league into the champs, taking the Lakers to 7 games in the second round of the playoffs. Houston has done a terrific job of building a winning team with a couple of stars and a bunch of guys off the scrap heap. This year however, they may not have the star power to stick in the West playoffs. Yao is out for possibly the entire season and Tracy McGrady is still a big question mark. Ron Artest is replaced by the younger Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks is now the full-time starting point guard. I actually think this could be a season where one step backwards equals two steps forward. The Rockets still have a solid base with their role players. They replace a couple older guys in Artest and Alston with young guys in Ariza and Brooks, who will have an incredible opportunity to develop with basically no other options to go to. That will be big for them going forward. McGrady’s huge contract comes off the books, freeing up cap space for the Rockets to sign one of the big free agents available next summer to pair with Yao, who will be fresh and healthy after a season off. A bad year would also give them a high draft pick in a draft that’s sure to be better than this year’s edition to move forward with. I don’t advocate tanking a whole season, but the Rockets may be better off not killing themselves to get the 8 seed.


21. Charlotte Bobcats

Every year the question is asked: “Is this the year the Bobcats make the playoffs??” And every year the answer is a “No”. I don’t see that changing after the Bobs mysteriously flipped centers with the Hornets, getting Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. In my opinion, that’s a downgrade, maybe even a significant one. What evidence do we have that Chandler can be even adequately effective without Chris Paul feeding him lobs? He doesn’t even block shots anymore. There is still talent in Charlotte, especially on the wings and in the backcourt, but still nothing up front. Besides Chandler, the Bobcats will be relying on Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, and Vladimir Radmonovic to pull down boards and anchor the middle. Even with Larry Brown at the helm, I don’t think this team is deep or talented enough to challenge for a spot in a more competitive East. By the end of this season they may be the only pro sports franchise without a playoff appearance if the Houston Texans come through.


20. Toronto Raptors

It seems like it was just a year ago that we were talking about the Raptors waiting in the wings to rise to the top of the ranks in the East. Oh wait, it was. And yet, Toronto stunk out the joint last year and it seems a matter of when, not if, Chris Bosh is dealt before getting a chance to walk next summer. Even with the addition of the Turkish Michael Jordan, I don’t think the Raptors can climb back into Eastern elite. Not with so many other average teams improving around them. Hedo Turkoglu was in the perfect situation to succeed in Orlando. With one of the great point guards in the game in Jose Calderon running the show, Turk will not have the ball in his hands as much to make any play he wants. Also, too much will be asked of rookie shooting guard DeMar DeRozan. He’s way too raw to make a huge impact now. If Andrea Bargnani can play at a level that justifies his number one overall pick status, the Raps may hang onto Bosh and make things interesting, but I think they’ll be on the outside looking in come mid-April. At least they’ll know that they’re still the best team in Canada.


19. Oklahoma City Thunder

What a shame this team is no longer in the good city of Seattle. Nothing against OKC, but, come on now. What’s a pro basketball franchise doing in Oklahoma? Anyways, it’s a promising franchise, with Kevin Durant ready to take the leap to superduperstardom. I see many scoring titles in that young man’s future and it would surprise me not at all if his first one came this season. Jeff Green is quietly developing into a very nice complimentary player, Russell Westbrook is sure to improve on a stellar rookie year, and rookie James Harden seems like a great fit for this young squad. All the Thunder lack is a little depth and a good big man anchoring their middle. Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison would make great bench players, but having them rotate as starting center is a real impediment. Their lack of quality size up front will keep them out of the playoffs this season in a West that’s frontcourt heavy, but they may be closer than you think.


18. Los Angeles Clippers

What a difference a Blake Griffin makes. The Clips get a huge jump on their lottery pick competition by grabbing the only potentially great player in this year’s draft. While Griffin still has a lot of developing to do, he can do it at his own pace with a couple other solid bigs in place in Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman. Reports have Baron Davis looking leaner and hungrier than he has in years, and Eric Gordon will build on his quietly great rookie campaign. I also love the Clippers’ depth with underrated acquisitions Rasual Butler, Sebastian Telfair, and Craig Smith joining the club. The only thing holding this team back is their terrible coach. If he stays out of the way and all the key guys manage to stay relatively healthy, I see the Clippers sneaking back into the playoffs….only to be swept by the Lakers in the first round.


Pretenders

This group is reserved those teams who are playoff-caliber teams, but not much more. They all have talent, but if any one of these teams makes a deep run in the postseason, I’d be surprised. Some of them may be in a dogfight down the stretch just to get in.


17. Detroit Pistons

It seems like the Pistons were a prime candidate to enter rebuilding mode after their implosion last season. With two-thirds of their title-winning rotation departed, and a good deal of payroll slashed with the Answer and Sheed leaving town, it would be natural for the Pistons to wait a year, let their youngsters like Rodney Stuckey and rookie Austin Daye develop, then use their cap room to splurge on a big free agent next summer with a lottery pick to boot. Instead, Detroit dove into the free agent fray first in 2009, striking deals with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva almost before the signing period began. It’s a move I don’t like, as it creates the same backcourt rotation problem the Pistons dealt with last year after Iverson came on board. And while Villanueva can score in bunches, he hasn’t shown any effort on the defensive end in his career, and it remains to be seen if he was just playing for a contract with his performance last year. A team that has been synonymous with defense and tough, intimidating big men is now a perimeter-oriented jump shooting team that will find it impossible to deal with size down low. The fall from grace will continue for the Pistons, who will miss the playoffs for the first time in a long time.


16. Miami Heat

It was the D-Wade show in South Beach last year, and the Heat did nothing to change that over the offseason. While Wade is clearly at the forefront of the discussion for best player, he is not superhuman. An extremely brittle, extremely physical specimen who has to shoulder such a large burden can’t expect to escape injury forever. And with his previous injury history, it may be just a matter of time before Wade goes down this year. Miami is clearly banking on large internal improvement from last year’s rookies Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. Beasley in particular has the talent to take a considerable portion of the scoring load off of Wade, but his mental state is in question heading into the season. Another big issue in Miami is how much Jermaine O’Neal has left in the tank. If he can play anywhere near his 2004 capabilities, the Heat will be a team no one wants to face in the postseason, otherwise it will just be more of Dwyane Wade’s spectacular play in another early playoff exit.


15. Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers should flourish in a more uptempo style suited to their athletes and getting Elton Brand back healthy certainly helps, but remember that Brand has now missed nearly all of the past TWO seasons, and Philly seemed to play much better without Brand in the lineup last year. The departure of Andre Miller also hurts as they now have no true point guard to lead them. While Lou Williams can fill it up, he’s a shoot first type of player who may not get all of his talented teammates involved. Andre Iguodala continues to be one of the most underrated all-around players in basketball, but his game was negatively affected the most when Brand was playing a year ago. Thaddeus Young is primed for a breakout year, and he would be a great fit at the power forward spot if the Sixers want to play more small ball this year. Jason Kapono finally brings an outside shot to the table for a team that has been in desperate need for shooters, but he won’t be on the floor in crunch time, so who else will be able to shoot Philly back into games? Ultimately, I think the departure of Andre Miller coupled with the team’s lack of identity with Brand in the lineup will hold back a group that is oozing with potential.


14. New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets are just 2 years removed from nearly having the best record in the Western Conference. Now they have moved back in the pack and seem to be in some slight disarray. They upgraded their low-post offense with the addition of Okafor who should complement David West’s outside game well, but they still lack depth, have a lot of injury concerns, and a gaping hole at shooting guard, especially after giving away Rasual Butler. Peja Stojakovic is just an afterthought at this point in his career, and Morris Peterson always has been. Chris Paul may not have much help in getting his team back to the top and head coach Byron Scott is on a short leash. New Orleans is a just a couple of injuries away from missing out on the playoffs and having a new coach and an unhappy superstar.


13. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls seem to be treading water for this season. They lose Ben Gordon’s offensive firepower, but John Salmons is now entrenched as the starting 2-guard and they get Luol Deng back. The Bulls still have no depth and are counting largely on Derrick Rose making the leap to offensive juggernaut (Extremely possible. See Durant, Kevin circa 2009.) and their rookies to make up for it. This team will play hard and be exciting to follow, but their reliance on perimeter scoring and lack of depth should slow them down in the playoffs. It may not matter much to Chicago, who are already eyeing potential living accommodations for Windy City native and free-agent-to-be Dwyane Wade.


12. Atlanta Hawks

Last year the Hawks were the best of the rest after the Big Three in the East. They may hang onto that title after re-signing a few key guys and adding scorer extraordinaire Jamal Crawford. Unfortunately for the Hawks, most of their team is basically in their prime, so banking on internal improvement will not be enough. Mike Bibby may not have a whole lot left in the tank, leaving Atlanta without a true point guard, though Crawford and Joe Johnson have no problem handling the ball. The Hawks are still very perimeter-oriented, and need Josh Smith to get a clue and work on his low-post scoring instead of jacking up outside jumpers. More offense from Al Horford would be welcome as well. The biggest problem for Atlanta may be their continued lack of depth, particularly in the frontcourt. Each of the last two seasons Joe Johnson has worn down in the second half of the season after logging 40+ minutes per game early on. They really need their bench guys to step up and play decently enough for their big guns to be in shape for the postseason.


11. Washington Wizards

The Wiz were awful last year as Agent Zero missed basically his second consecutive full season. Arenas claims that not only is he healthy this year, but he will also stop blogging and focus solely on basketball (Over/under no blogs by January 1, 2010, give me the under.). He still has two great sidekicks in Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, plus starting center Brendan Haywood is back healthy as well. People forget Haywood was very productive, particularly on defense, for Washington two years ago. The Wizards also made arguably the best move of the offseason by giving up pretty much nothing for two more quality players in Mike Miller and Randy Foye. Miller can play the 2 or the 3 and his silky smooth shot will get more open looks with so many scorers around. Foye is still developing as a combo guard who can spell either backcourt position without taking anything off the table. The Wizards also still have a lot of young talent off the bench like Andray Blatche, Jevale McGee, Dominic McGuire, Nick Young, and Javaris Crittenton, who will provide good depth for this injury-prone squad. It all adds up to the most improved team in the league and a good shot at hosting a first round playoff series….provided they stay healthy of course.


10. Utah Jazz

The Jazz are another one of those teams who seemed like they were ready to take the next step and contend for a title just a couple years ago when they made it to the Western Conference Finals. Since then though, Utah has lost earlier and earlier in the playoffs, (Going out quietly in the first round last year as an 8 seed) despite the improvement of their young guys like Deron Williams, Paul Millsap, and Ronnie Brewer. They retain both starting frontcourt players in Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, who declined to opt for free agency this year, but Millsap was also re-signed to a big contract and many expect Boozer to be on the move before the trade deadline to make room for him. Utah still has a lot of talent led by Williams and makes a dangerous foe for any team in the playoffs with their ability to play various styles. What they really need is another scorer in the backcourt to take the pressure off of Williams, so if they can flip Boozer for a scoring wing the Jazz could climb steadily back up the ranks out West.


9. Phoenix Suns

Five years ago the Suns breathed life back into the NBA with Mike D’Antoni’s patented seven-seconds-or-less offense that led to three consecutive deep (but unlucky) playoff runs. After a season of trying to play a more defensive half-court game, the Suns go back to the run-and-gun and I think it will have a similar effect as it did back in 2005. Their guys will be energized, and with Steve Nash running the offense to perfection, everyone will get their touches. Their ability to put points on the board will catch a lot of better teams off guard and lead to a strong bounce-back year in the Desert. The big question here is whether Amar’e Stoudamire will continue to show his displeasure and be traded away rather than allowed to walk as a free agent next summer. I think a fast-paced game suited to his talents will keep him interested enough to play out the season in Phoenix, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they catch some team napping and get past the first round of the playoffs. Draft all their rotation guys with confidence in your fantasy leagues. There will be plenty of stats to go around.


Dark Horses

These teams are right on the cusp of being true championship contenders. They still carry more question marks than the league’s royalty, but if everything goes right for one of these teams, they can surprise a lot of people in June.


8. Denver Nuggets

I said in the intro to this group of teams that if everything goes right for one of these teams it can make a title run. Well I think that already happened for this Nuggets team last year. They made the AI for Billups swap that upgraded their leadership and got their offense to fall exactly into place. Denver got healthy seasons from both Nene and K-Mart (When was the last time that happened for either of those guys, let alone both?). Chris Andersen and Dahntay Jones were revelations off the bench, and J.R. Smith kept his act together for most of the season. The Nuggets got to the Western Conference Finals and pushed the Lakers hard. I think that was their ceiling. I don’t see all those things going right for them again. Billups is a year older and probably a step slower. It’s foolish to bank on healthy years from their starting bigs again. The Birdman just got paid. Jones skipped town. J.R. Smith is still J.R. Smith. Carmelo Anthony could have an MVP caliber season, but without improving and with less luck this season, I think they fall back in the pack.


7. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks rolled the dice on the Devin Harris for Jason Kidd trade and saw it turn up two early playoff exits in Dallas and a monster season out of Harris in New Jersey. But I have to give the Mavs credit for sticking to their guns, and giving this team a chance to succeed with Kidd instead of rebuilding and possibly scaring Dirk Nowitzki off next summer. After acquiring Shawn Marion for spare parts, Dallas has all the makings of a run-and-gun style team a la the Suns. They would create numerous matchup problems with a front line of Nowitzki, Marion, and Josh Howard along with Kidd and Jason terry in the backcourt. Who can guard that lineup? If the Mavs do run, I can see them outscoring teams and going deep into the playoffs. The only question is, as with the Phoenix teams from earlier in the decade, does Dallas have the depth to push the pace? They quite possibly might. They made an underrated pickup in defensive ace Quinton Ross, who can guard perimeter scorers and knock down threes, and Tim Thomas thrived in Phoenix’s system. And if they want to play more traditional they have solid bigs in Drew Gooden and Erick Dampier off the bench, while little J.J. Barea proved he could contribute last season backing up Kidd. If the chips fall the Mavericks way, this could be the team that finally gets it done in Big D.


6. Portland Trailblazers

Three years ago I picked a team in each conference to go from the bottom to the top and be contenders by 2010. In the East, I took the Bobcats. (Yeahhh…let’s move on shall we?) And in the West I jumped on the Blazers. I loved their 2006 draft where they absolutely stole both Brandon Roy (My boy) and LaMarcus Aldridge and they have steadily climbed the ranks since. A lot was expected out of them in last year’s playoffs, but they went down in the first round to Houston, leaving many dismissing them as not yet ready. In their defense, they only played one bad game in that series (Game 1) and after that home court held every time so they lost in six games. They came very, very close to beating the Rockets in Houston on more than one occasion in that series though, and remember the Rockets played the champs better than anyone else, plus Yao was healthy for the Blazers series. I think that series had more to do with Houston being good than the Blazers being bad. Now with that experience under their belts, I think they can take the next step into the West’s elite. Their home court advantage is among the best in the league, and they may play the Lakers tougher than anyone else. Throw in the most underrated superstar in the game (Roy) and the addition of Andre Miller and this team has massive potential. Most of that potential hinges on former number one pick Greg Oden. If he can develop into an intimidating low-post force, particularly on defense, the Blazers have all the pieces to stay in contention for the next decade. Also, they hold a wild card in their young assets and cap room, making a trade for a big-time difference maker still possible.


Contenders

The name says it all. Odds are one of these teams are winning the title this year. They are simply a cut above the rest of the NBA.


5. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs were the darlings of the league last year, finishing with the best record, having LeBron get MVP, and Mike Brown get Coach of the Year. Then they were exposed in the conference finals by Orlando as being all LeBron and not much else. To rectify that, Cleveland made a big splash in the offseason trading for Shaquille O’Neal. While he may make even better chemistry in the locker room, will he make a better team on the floor? No question he gives them a low-post scoring threat who is still difficult to guard and takes pressure off of LeBron and creates more room for their shooters. On defense however, Shaq is a notoriously bad pick-and-roll defender, something the Cavs were already deficient in. While Shaq is a net positive, I don’t see him putting Cleveland over the top as many others do. What gets lost in the Shaq buzz is that the Cavs made a couple of smaller moves that I think can have a bigger impact on the team. After the Magic exploited matchups against Cleveland’s lack of size on the perimeter, the Cavs added Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, both sizable wings who can defend multiple positions. Parker is also a deadly long-range shooter. They will help Cleveland match up better against the elite teams in the NBA. While the Cavs have upgraded their talent from a team that won 66 games last year, I still think they are built more for the regular season than the postseason. They have the worst coach among the top teams and Shaq cannot be relied upon to stay healthy the whole season. When it comes down to it, it may just be LeBron-on-five every possession again, and that is not a winning formula.


4. Orlando Magic

The defending Eastern Conference champs shook up their roster in the offseason. They allowed their best playmaker Hedo Turkoglu to leave town, but acquired another All-Star swingman in Vince Carter for a nominal fee. They sacrifice some of those imposing matchups, but upgrade their athleticism and talent. They took more steps to ensure success in a more traditional setting by re-signing Marcin Gortat and acquiring Brandon Bass to bolster the frontcourt. Adding tough, veteran swingman Matt Barnes also gives them a great rotation on the wings, and Jameer Nelson is more than capable of fulfilling Turoglu’s playmaking abilities. If Dwight Howard learned any post moves at all, the Magic could easily be the best team in the league, but if it hasn’t happened in six years, I can’t assume it will happen now. If the Magic can duplicate their defensive success from a year ago, they can once again represent the East in the Finals.


3. Boston Celtics

Two words: Kevin Garnett. With a healthy KG, Boston may be unbeatable, but without him, as we saw last season when Chicago nearly upset them in the first round, they can be extremely vulnerable. The additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels don’t hurt, adding depth to this aging squad, and re-signing Big Baby Davis gives them a solid frontcourt rotation. The continued growth of Rajon Rondo into one of the best young point guards in the game can keep the C’s Big Three fresh for the stretch run, something they’re really going to need with this group of grizzled veterans. They have the playoff pedigree to get the job done, but it all circles back to Garnett. With their floor general in the lineup, the Celtics can throttle teams with their defense, the greatest asset to a championship team. A frontcourt tandem of Garnett and Wallace makes for a matchup nightmare, and gives Boston the size it needs if it faces the Lakers in a Finals rematch. Until Garnett’s health status can be known the jury is still out on this team, but if their leader is good to go the Celtics have to be the favorites in the East.


2. San Antonio Spurs

A few months ago it seemed that the Spurs dynasty was doomed to its demise. Tim Duncan was worn out, Manu Ginobli couldn’t stay on the court, and their lack of depth was glaring as they turned into the Tony Parker Show. After meekly exiting the playoffs in the first round after five lackluster games to the Mavericks, (Losing 2 of 3 home games no less) it appeared a foregone conclusion that this team’s run was over and it was time to start thinking about rebuilding. But as I have learned over the years, you can NEVER count out an organization like the Spurs. All they did was go out and have the best offseason of any team in the league. They traded what amounts to nothing for a scoring wing, something they were in dire need of, in Richard Jefferson. They also replenished a depleted frontcourt with veteran Antonio McDyess and draft night steal DaJuan Blair to decrease the burden on Duncan. With George Hill emerging as a backcourt threat and sharpshooter Roger Mason moving to his more comfortable role off the bench, this squad is deep and still supremely talented. With their added weapons, they can now afford to rest Duncan and Ginobli during the season to make sure they have full tanks heading into the postseason, and if they stay healthy they’re still one of the smartest, well-coached squads in the league, and I think a fresh Duncan is still one of the three best players in the NBA. The Spurs are just too dangerous to count out this year, and if I had to pick one team to dethrone the defending champs, this would be the one.


1. Los Angeles Lakers

You have to put the crown on the heads of the reigning kings. The Lakers became the first team in two decades to win the title a year after losing in the Finals, showing their growth and maturity. Even after hanging another banner at the Staples Center, this team still went out and made a move, essentially trading Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. People around the NBA are squarely divided on this acquisition. On the one hand Artest has been a lockdown defender for his whole career and can score 30 points on any given night. On the other hand, he can ruin a team’s chemistry like few others, has a penchant for making bad decisions that cost his team, and can grind an offense to a halt with his selfish play. Meanwhile, the Lakers lose a guy who was comfortable being a role player in Ariza, who is also much younger, a blossoming perimeter stopper, and an integral part of last year’s title-winning team. While it hurts to lose Ariza, and even with the distinct possibility of Artest sinking the (champion)ship, the Lakers now have an even higher ceiling. Having a top notch defender like Artest around keeps Kobe Bryant from having to guard the other team’s best player, conserving his energy for offense. And though many claim that Artest has lost a step and can’t stay with the quicker small forwards in the league, I say the Lakers don’t need him to. Just as Shaq went to Cleveland to guard Dwight Howard, Artest was brought in with an eye to covering the bigger, more powerful small forwards in the league, such as LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and Carmelo Anthony. Notice the teams those guys play for and where they rank on this list. That’s right, all are potential matchups for the Lakers deep in the playoffs. It doesn’t matter if Artest can’t hang with Kevin Durant or Rudy Gay in a meaningless game in January. He just has to make life hell for Paul Pierce in June. And he’s still one of the best around at doing that. Plus Phil Jackson is the type of coach to calm down mercurial players (See Rodman, Dennis circa 1997) and Kobe Bryant’s fierce personality keeps everybody in check. Even aside from Artest, this team is downright scary. Bryant is still the best player in the league, especially in the clutch, while Pau Gasol may be the most underrated great big man in the game, and Lamar Odom is clearly the most talented bench player in the NBA. Remember this team won a championship last year without getting anything from heralded center Andrew Bynum or their other bench guys. With all those great players around, Bynum can take his time to develop and has looked awesome this preseason. If he stays healthy and productive this season, there is no one who can beat the Lakers, while the combination of Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, and Sasha Vujacic will energize the second unit and can’t play any worse than they did a year ago. Add it all up and this team is clearly the class of the league.


Predictions


Order of Finish

East

West

15. Milwaukee Bucks

15. Sacramento Kings

14. New Jersey Nets

14. Memphis Grizzlies

13. New York Knicks

13. Golden State Warriors

12. Indiana Pacers

12. Minnesota Timberwolves

11. Charlotte Bobcats

11. Houston Rockets

10. Toronto Raptors

10. Oklahoma City Thunder

9. Detroit Pistons

9. New Orleans Hornets

8. Miami Heat

8. Los Angeles Clippers

7. Philadelphia 76ers

7. Utah Jazz

6. Chicago Bulls

6. Phoenix Suns

5. Atlanta Hawks

5. Denver Nuggets

4. Washington Wizards

4. Portland Trailblazers

3. Orlando Magic

3. Dallas Mavericks

2. Boston Celtics

2. San Antonio Spurs

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

1. Los Angeles Lakers


Playoffs


Round 1:

Cleveland over Miami

Boston over Philadelphia

Orlando over Chicago

Washington over Atlanta

Lakers over Clippers

San Antonio over Utah

Phoenix over Dallas

Portland over Denver


Round 2:

Cleveland over Washington (as usual)

Boston over Orlando (with a healthy KG last year, Boston would have easily won)

Los Angeles over Portland (barely)

San Antonio over Phoenix (as usual)


Conference Finals:

Boston over Cleveland (in 6)

Los Angeles over San Antonio (in 7)


NBA Finals:

Los Angeles over Boston (in 7, sweet revenge)


Awards:


Rookie of the Year- Blake Griffin, PF, Clippers: 15.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg

Most Improved Player- Anthony Randolph, PF, Warriors: 17.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.9 bpg

Sixth Man of the Year- Lamar Odom, PF, Lakers: 10.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg

Coach of the Year- Rick Carlisle: Mavs win 55+ games

Defensive Player of the Year- Dwight Howard: 21.2 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 1.0 spg, 3.3 bpg

MVP- LeBron James: 28.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.2 bpg, Cavs finish with best record again


1st Team All-NBA:

G- Chris Paul: 22.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 11.2 apg, 2.8 spg

G- Kobe Bryant: 26.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.6 spg

F- LeBron James: 28.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.2 bpg

F- Amar’e Stoudamire: 24.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 56% FG

C- Dwight Howard: 21.2 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 3.3 bpg, 59% FG


2nd Team All-NBA:

G- Steve Nash: 16.2 ppg, 11.1 apg, 50% FG, 45% 3-pt, 92% FT

G- Brandon Roy: 22.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.2 spg

F- Kevin Durant: 29.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.4 spg, 1.1 bpg

F- Dirk Nowtzki: 27.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 50% FG, 41% 3-pt, 90% FT

C- Al Jefferson: 24.2 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 51% FG


Fantasy Basketball Rankings

Assuming it’s a head-to-head league with standard 8 categories (no turnovers)


1. Chris Paul (stats above): In a head-to-head league I’m looking to dominate as many categories as I can, and Paul dominates assists and steals while providing incredible percentages, points, and helpful rebounds from a point guard. If he made more threes this would be a no-brainer.


2. LeBron James (stats above): I’d take him first in a roto league, but in head-to-head he doesn’t dominate a single category, except maybe points, but that’s easy to find. Nevertheless no one fills it up across the board like he does, and with him alone you have a solid base to build off of. Just hope his free throw percentage stays where it was last year.


3. Dwyane Wade: 29.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 7.5 apg, 2.3 spg, 1.2 bpg – I left him off of the All-NBA teams because I think he gets hurt, but injuries are tough to predict and his across the board numbers are so good, he has to be the third player taken. The assists from a shooting guard are valuable, he was second to CP3 in steals last year, and did you know that only 15 players in the league blocked more shots than Wade did last season?


4. Dwight Howard (stats above): He’s undraftable in a roto league, but in h2h formats Dwight is a beast. His dominance in field goal percentage, rebounds, and blocks is akin to Paul’s assists and steals, and you can build those strengths to dominate at least 3 categories. His points are great as well as the fact that he can get you a steal per game from your center spot. On the downside, be prepared to lose free throw percentage every week.


5. Kevin Durant (stats above): Durant goes off this year. Not only will he possibly lead the league in points, he’ll do it on very helpful percentages. In fact he could have the most useful free throw percentage if he can get to the line 2 more times per game. Not only that, but he can get you nearly 8 boards a game qualifying as a shooting guard and his 1+ threes/steals/blocks combo is hard to come by.


Rounding out the top 25….

6. Kobe Bryant (free throw attempt numbers will dip a bit)

7. Dirk Nowitzki (amazing percentages and will rebound more in a running system)

8. Danny Granger (1.5 blocks out of a small forward to go with crazy threes and FT%)

9. Deron Williams (joins Paul as only 20-10 point guards)

10. Al Jefferson (combination of points, boards, and blocks as good as Howard's without killing your FT%)

11. Amar’e Stoudamire (love all Suns guys this year)

12. Chris Bosh (20-10 with the percentages, but you need to get blocks elsewhere)

13. Steve Nash (see Stoudamire, Amar’e)

14. Pau Gasol (maybe the best percentages of any big man, while getting you boards and blocks)

15. Brandon Roy (great percentages to go with points and assists from a shooting guard)

16. Andre Iguodala (great across the board, but iffy percentages and he wasn’t as good with Brand in the lineup)

17. Carmelo Anthony (becoming a better all-around contributor each year, could get 8 boards a game)

18. Jason Kidd (elite threes/assists/steals combo, doesn’t shoot enough to kill your FG%)

19. Kevin Garnett (great percentages and 1+ steal/block combo, but the boards will dry up)

20. Joe Johnson (points, threes, FT%, plus assists from a shooting guard, hurts the FG% though)

21. Jose Calderon (fantastic percentages and assists, making more threes now and gets a steal a game)

22. Chauncey Billups (elite FT% and threes, with valuable assists and steals, but drains FG%)

23. Tim Duncan (the Spurs rest him more this year so his numbers dip across the board)

24. Brook Lopez (poor man’s Pau, but with elite shot-blocking)

25. Devin Harris (scoring point guard who still gets assists, steals, and racks up FT attempts without killing FG%)


Sleepers

All the Suns: J-Rich, Barbosa, Hill all steals in the middle to late rounds, and deeper leagues should take a shot on Channing Frye

Andrea Bargnani: Rare combo of threes and blocks, plus qualifies at center and shoots great from the line

Boris Diaw: Contributes across the board and usually goes a round too late

Luis Scola: Proved last year that he can score consistently in the post, and without Yao he’s got to do a lot more board work. Bank on 15-10 with good percentages.

Chris Kaman: He may be an injury risk, but so is Camby, and this is the latest you can pick up an elite shot blocker

Tyreke Evans: The Kings are terrible and he’ll basically have free reign over the ball


Busts

All the Grizzlies: If you can predict who’s getting the ball on that team you’re a genius. But you only have a 1-in-6 shot of guessing right. Just stay away.

Troy Murphy: Don’t pay for a career year. That FG% has to drop off and he doesn’t block shots. Plus his boards could decrease with more playing time for Roy Hibbert. He’s not a third round pick.

Carlos Boozer: Big man who doesn’t help you at all in blocks, plus he could get traded and Millsap will eat into his production.

Nene: See the first sentence of Murphy, Troy. Do you trust him to stay healthy 2 years in a row? I don’t. Rather take Bynum, Okafor, or Horford 3-4 rounds later.

Hedo Turkoglu: Better real-life player than fantasy player. Kills your FG% and watch the assists disappear with Calderon running the offense.

Richard Hamilton: Only good for percentages and points, but those have declined in recent years, plus who gets the minutes in the Pistons backcourt?

Ramon Sessions: Wolves took a lot of heat for the Flynn pick so they’ll run him out there as much as possible to justify it, leaving Ramon scrounging for minutes.


And there you have it. Another season of the Lakers dominating the league and me dominating fantasy basketball. If one of those things turns out to be true, I'll call the 2010 season a success. If you know me, you know which one I'd rather have...Enjoy basketball season everyone!!