Friday, December 11, 2009
NBA Quarter Pole Power Poll
30. New Jersey Nets
Of course they had to go here after setting a new record for longest losing streak before winning their first game. Injuries have played a large part in that as this team has some nice young talent (Harris, Lopez, CDR, Lee, Yi, Williams) that should be able to compete on a nightly basis. But I'm sure Nets fans don't mind this terrible start too much, as they'll have another high draft pick along with those young guys and cap room to try and lure LeBron and someone else to Jersey (or Brooklyn). Amazingly though, in a conference that has only 5 teams with .500 or better records, an 0-18 start does not eliminate you from playoff contention in the Least...I mean...East.
29. Minnesota Timberwolves
Talent-wise, the T-Wolves may actually be worse than the Nets. Al Jefferson is still slowly getting back into the flow of things and Kevin Love just returned from injury. (One guy that's not stepping on the floor for them anytime soon? Ricky Rubio. Yeah, I had to go there.) Minnesota is starting to play better now that they're getting healthier with recent wins over Denver and Utah, but they still have a long way to go to catch up in the standings to the rest of the West.
28. Indiana Pacers
Here's a usually over-achieving team that's under-achieving right now. They got Mike Dunleavy back but lose their All Star forward Danny Granger for a month and a half because of a bad heel. A team that plays no defense without their best offensive player for that long? Not too many more wins coming before MLK day for this team. And what in the world happened to T.J. Ford?
27. Chicago Bulls
Have they quit on Vinny del Negro already? Derrick Rose hasn't made the leap to superstardom in his second year, and the Bulls are finding it a challenge to score without Ben Gordon lighting it up. Chicago may just be biding their time until the offseason to try and snag Dwyane Wade, but is it safe to rely on that? I'd be surprised if they don't make a play for Chris Bosh or Carlos Boozer before the trade deadline and bull their way into the playoffs. (Sorry, but puns are just too much fun)
26. Philadelphia 76ers
This was supposed to be a team on the rise, but they've fallen before they ever really took off. The Elton Brand signing has been an unmitigated disaster and the Sixers have no one to go to for consistent offense. Iguodala is a tremendous player, but he's just not a great number one option on offense. It's 11 straight losses and counting, but at least Iverson is selling some tickets now.
25. Golden State Warriors
I give up trying to figure out Don Nelson. He's willing to play Vladimir Radmonovic and C.J. Watson 48 minutes, but one of the most intriguing upside guys in the league in Anthony Randolph can't get on the floor for a team that's going nowhere? When he does play he's great (28 and 13 in 35 minutes the other night), so why not develop him? They could have a great future with Randolph, Ellis, Biedrins, Curry, and Morrow, but instead they're content to lose 130-110 every night playing career backups for 40+ minutes. Okay, rant over.
24. New York Knicks
The Knicks are a frisky 3-1 since benching Nate Robinson, one of their 3 best players heading into this season. What does that tell me about New York? Even their best players aren't very good. So, in other words, it tells me nothing. They're still praying they can get rid of Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries to free up some more cap room for LeBron + 1.
23. Milwaukee Bucks
Now that Brandon Jennings has slowed down considerably, Milwaukee's excessive lack of talent is starting to show (8 losses in their last 9 before their last game). How much longer can they afford to swallow ever-absent Michael Redd's contract? Other teams may think he's too much damaged goods to even get much back for him in a trade now.
22. Washington Wizards
Here's another team vastly under-achieving thanks in large part to injuries. Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Mike Miller, and Randy Foye have all missed games thus far. Even so, this team has been way too inconsistent considering all the talent amassed on it. It seems every time they start to get going they curiously drop a couple games they aren't supposed to. I still think they'll get it together and be a force down the stretch, but they're going to need to start playing team basketball instead of each player being focused on getting theirs.
21. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizz are very similar to the Wiz in that they have great individual talent, and early on their results were very similar to Washington's as well. But lately, Memphis has been playing some team ball and it's shown in the win-loss column, including an overtime win over the mighty Cavs the other night. Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo have learned to share the ball better while Marc Gasol has been a rock in the middle (Can't say the same for #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet). Amazingly enough Zach Randolph hasn't murdered this team...yet.
20. Toronto Raptors
The Raps are more of an exciting, fast-paced team this season, but they're just as ineffective at winning games. Just as I thought, Hedo Turkoglu isn't making a huge positive impact on this team, and is actually hurting the effectiveness of Jose Calderon. Meanwhile Chris Bosh is putting up empty Contract Year numbers as it remains evident he has no intent of returning to the Raptors. There's a 90% chance he's not on this squad come March.
19. Sacramento Kings
The Kings have scratched and clawed their way to a respectable mark so far this year, even without leading scorer Kevin Martin and versatile glue guy Francisco Garcia. Tyreke Evans may have taken over favorite status in the ROY race and they're getting major contributions from relative no-names like Beno Udrih and Omri Casspi. I don't think they can continue at this pace, but it's good to see the Kings on the comeback trail with a scrappy and determined young squad.
18. Los Angeles Clippers
After another disappointing start, the Clips have won some games recently. Baron Davis is starting to look like his former self, and the Kaman/Camby combo is a load to handle down low. With all the talent on this roster and #1 overall selection Blake Griffin on the mend, it's clear that the only thing holding this team back is their hapless coach.
17. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are paying Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva an awful lot of money to play 25 minutes a game each off the bench, but lately guys like Jonas Jerebko and scrap heap pickup Will Bynum have energized this team to a few wins and a spot in the East's top eight. Factor in Ben Wallace's revamped defense and Rodney Stuckey's continued improvement, and Detroit may keep their consecutive playoff appearance streak alive once Rip Hamilton gets back and their pricy free agent acquisitions get going.
16. Charlotte Bobcats
Despite being the first team to lose to the woeful Nets, the Bobcats have been otherwise solid. Stephen Jackson has provided some scoring punch and Gerald Wallace is playing at an All Star level. The only thing holding them back is their lack of bigs, so you wonder if Larry Brown will move Boris Diaw soon for some added size up front.
15. New Orleans Hornets
Since firing coach Byron Scott, New Orleans has turned things around, climbing back into the playoff picture. There's still too much of a burden on Chris Paul, especially with David West struggling early on, but they've gotten solid contributions from newly added Emeka Okafor and their rookie guards. The Hornets can give anyone in the league a good game, but their lack of depth will continue to hurt them all year long.
14. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have clearly been the most disappointing team in the league so far, barely above .500 19 games into the season. While their usual injuries have played a part, it seems like their usual team chemistry isn't right. In particular, their big offseason acquisition Richard Jefferson hasn't found his niche or accepted his role on this team. As a result, the Spurs are a paltry 2-8 against teams with winning records. I still trust them to right the ship and be their normally dangerous selves by the time April rolls around.
13. Miami Heat
After a hot (Pun anyone?) start, the Heat have cooled off considerably. Dwyane Wade looks worn down and his shooting percentage has plummeted in comparison to last season. While Michael Beasley seems to be developing bit by bit, there's just not a whole lot of help for Wade in Miami. They'll still be a playoff team in a weak conference (as long as Wade remains healthy), but they won't be a threat to any of the top teams in the East.
12. Portland Trailblazers
There's something just wrong with this team. And I mean aside from the mounting injuries. They're really struggling on offense and a lot of that probably has to do with the misfit of Andre Miller imposing himself in the lineup. The injuries just add to the concern. This was a team that was supposed to take the next step to Contender status, but it already seems like they're going to take a significant step backward this year. Poor, poor Greg Oden. What else can you say?
11. Oklahoma City Thunder
Didn't believe me when I said back in the preseason that the Thunder would challenge for a playoff spot in the West this season? Better believe it now. OKC has won 12 of their first 21 to start the season, and they've done so while playing the second-toughest schedule of any team in the league. Kevin Durant has continued his ascension into the upper echelon of NBA players, currently sitting with the 4th highest scoring average so far this season. With the way this team gets after it on the defensive end, they keep themselves in a lot of basketball games with sheer effort. If they can find some quality size in the frontcourt to complement their high-flying forwards, they can make their way into contention.
10. Utah Jazz
I mentioned Chris Bosh's Contract Year numbers earlier. Well, Carlos Boozer is putting some of those up as well, getting back to his 20-10 ways in the hopes of getting (over)paid next summer. The teammates around him haven't stopped fighting though, as Deron WIlliams and company have overcome a slow start to creep up to second in their division. Once they get a few key role players back from injury they'll be a tough out in the postseason, but the bigger question is if Boozer will be moved before the deadline with Paul Millsap waiting in the wings.
9. Houston Rockets
Another team I thought would challenge for a playoff spot with a bunch of scrappy over-achievers, the Rockets are off to a really good start. Considering they've played the toughest schedule in the league thus far, their 13-9 mark is more than respectable, especially coming off of a double-digit domination of the Cavs. Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks are putting up big numbers in starring roles on offense, and Carl Landry has quietly had a great year off the bench. If they can get anything out of T-Mac this year (It would be most beneficial if they could trade him for players that can help them on the court) Houston will continue to surprise.
8. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have gotten out of the gate hot in 2009, as Dirk Nowitzki has led them to the 3rd best record in the West thus far. They posted an impressive double-digit win over the Lakers in Los Angeles in the first week of the season, and have done all their damage thus far without the services of Josh Howard. If they keep getting contributions off the bench from Drew Gooden and (gulp) Tim Thomas, expect Dallas to keep on rolling.
7. Phoenix Suns
As I proclaimed in the preseason, the Suns are back with a vengeance. They're running and gunning their way to wins once more, and Steve Nash is a prime candidate to take home his third MVP trophy. Despite a bad loss to the Knicks (In which they somehow failed to score 100 points against a team that can't spell defense) and a couple of beatdowns at the hands of the Lakers, you have to give the Suns credit for building such a strong record despite playing the fewest number of home games of any team in the league.
6. Denver Nuggets
The big news out of Denver has been Carmelo Anthony lighting it up nightly and leading the NBA in scoring thus far. The Nuggets have been out to prove that their success last year was no fluke and that they really are the second best team in the West. However, just when you think they can challenge Los Angeles for conference supremacy (Like after they dismantled the Lakers in a matchup last month), they come up with a head-scratching loss (Like dropping a game at home to a T-Wolves team on a 15 game losing skid). It's a good thing rookie Ty Lawson is showing he has some game because Chauncey Billups appears to have lost a step. This team can contend, but are still too undersized to dethrone the reigning champs.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Is the Shaq experiment working? Only time will tell, but for now I find it interesting that O'Neal is getting practically no attention (And not too many minutes either). How long will Shaq be content to let LeBron hog the spotlight? It seems like the Cavs are at their best when he is not on the floor, and that can't sit well with the Big Witness Protection (He can't do much protecting from the sidelines though can he?) Cleveland seems stuck in a rut behind the Celtics and Magic in the East, and that has the entire city is praying that LeBron will remain a Cavalier past 2010 after the Cavs fall short in the playoffs again.
4. Atlanta Hawks
Surprise, surprise. After being unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs by Cleveland last year, Atlanta now appears to pose a serious threat to the Cavs. They're clearly closer to the Big Three in the East than they are to the rest of the pack, and their stellar play thus far has reflected that. Jamal Crawford gives this team some scoring punch off the pine that they have desperately needed and Josh Smith has finally figured out he's 28 times more effective when he doesn't jack up outside jumpers everyone knows he can't make. Their lack of depth up front is still a concern, but the Hawks are definitely on the radar screens of the top teams in the league.
3. Orlando Magic
The Magic don't seemed to have skipped a beat after replacing Hedo Turkoglu with Vince Carter. They're probably the deepest team in the league, and that has made up for the slightly worse play of their starting lineup. I'm not sure you want Carter taking 30 shots a game and Howard taking 4, and offensive strategies such as those will have this team fall short of where they went last year (Last night against the Suns, a team with absolutely no interior defense, Howard took exactly ONE SHOT in 41 minutes. Lunacy like that deserves a loss). Even though All Star Jameer Nelson has been sidelined for a second consecutive season with a major injury, Orlando continues to go out and win. They've dropped their last two though, (Tough back-to-back set on the road at Utah and Phoenix) and now have to worry about the Hawks challenging them for the division lead.
1B. Boston Celtics
1A. Los Angeles Lakers
These two titans of the NBA are on a collision course for a 2008 Finals rematch. They're clearly the class of their respective conferences. Both teams are riding 9+ game win streaks and have the two largest margins of victory by a wide margin over the rest of the league.
The Celtics have gotten it done with their standard stingy defense. Their Big Three looks old at times, but not often enough to count them out. Their full powers won't be needed until the playoffs anyways. However the emergence of Rajon Rondo and even Kendrick Perkins has the Celts covered for now, and they will only be strengthened by the returns of Big Baby Davis and Marquis Daniels to their bench.
The Lakers were off to a good start even without Pau Gasol. With their All Star forward back in the lineup, the Lakers are in the midst of an 11 game winning streak with an average margin of victory of 16 points a game. Their offense is a well-oiled machine with an unrivaled post-up game and improving long range shooting. Their bench has picked up their play led by Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown, with Jordan Farmar picking it up lately as well. A healthy Andrew Bynum is on track to make his first All Star team and Kobe Bryant is still the best player in the league. The most noticeable change in this team is their defense that currently ranks among the best in the league, which has been keyed by Ron Artest. He's clearly been an upgrade over Trevor Ariza thus far, especially on the defensive end. He hasn't caused any problems on the court yet, and despite some crazy antics and comments off of it (Admitting to drinking alcohol during halftime of games when he played for the Bulls and showing up to Jimmy Kimmel Live in just his boxer shorts) the team has responded by not even noticing. That's a good sign that Artest won't be a distraction and this Lakers squad will cruise through the West as long as they avoid major injuries (It will be interesting to see how Kobe's fractured index finger will affect him and the team). Hopefully come June, we'll be seeing a classic NBA Finals pitting the clear-cut best teams in the association. (With the Lakers emerging victorious of course)
Saturday, December 5, 2009
The Question
It's a simple question really, but one that even The Answer probably has no simple answer for. Is it really just because of the way he looks, or how he has come across as a person, or his game on the court? Where others see problems, I see a player. A great player. A player who has gone vastly underappreciated considering all he has accomplished in his career. Love him or hate him, Allen Iverson has been arguably the most influential basketball player in the last 15 years, both on and off the court. You look at the NBA now, and you see basketball culture fused with hip-hop culture. Why? The answer is The Answer. Literally. Allen Iverson ushered in the hip-hop era of basketball. From his flashy game, to his his style, to the way he carries himself (And even his failed attempt at rapping, but let's not speak of that again), Iverson was the first to merge the two now inseparable movements. Magic and Jordan never brought to mind hip-hop. Bird was the opposite of it. It all started with Iverson, and now there's hardly a player in the league whose iPod isn't dominated by the likes of Jay-Z and Kanye West. For better or worse, this made Iverson more than a ball player. It made him an icon. His style was profoundly emulated, from the full-body tats, to the baggy shorts, to the jersey 3 sizes too large, to the corn rows, to the nasty crossovers, to the arm sleeves now unnecessarily worn by too many players, A.I. was the pioneer for it all. He changed the game in a way that perhaps no player before him ever did, and something has to be said for that.
On the court Iverson has achieved a lot as well. All Star appearances, MVPs, scoring titles, a trip to the Finals, his resume only lacks a ring. People have always been on him about being a ballhog and a selfish gunner, but is he so much different than other superstars? Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade always have the ball in their hands, and they too love jacking up shot after shot. Why does the "selfish" label not follow them? They dribble around for 20 seconds before passing out of triple-teams to get their assists. Why does that make them team players when Iverson does the same thing?
You have to give the guy some credit now. He has played every game like it was last. You can never question his will or desire the way you can with some other superstars. The injuries he played through were numerous. No one hit the ground more times than he did, and no one got up more times than he did. Despite being the smallest guy on the court virtually every time he played, he was always the most feared. He is quite possibly the greatest scorer in the history of the game. Listed at just 6 feet tall (Yeah right, maybe standing on a phone book), the guy won FOUR scoring titles, averaged over 30 points per game 4 times in a 5 year span, and boasts the SIXTH best career scoring average of ALL TIME. No other player in the top FIFTY of that illustrious list is under 6-foot-3, or within a good 4-5 inches of Iverson. Think about the insane disparity there. How great of a scorer does he have to be to overcome a physical limitation like that which has so clearly affected that aspect of the game historically. Imagine for a second if he was just 6 inches taller. Would he average 30 a game for his career? 32? 34? The possibilities are staggering.
There's a knock on him that he never led his team to a championship. You don't need me to tell you that other great players have gone ring-less as well (Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Ewing, Reggie, Dominique, Kidd, Nash). And he came pretty darn close, getting to the 2001 NBA Finals, and handing the Lakers their ONLY loss of that postseason in spectacular fashion on the road in Los Angeles (48 points and the Tyronn Lue shot). People say that a team can't win when they are based so solely around a single player. I submit to you the current Cleveland Cavaliers. Now THAT is a team based solely around one guy (LeBron). As has been made clear throughout his career, he's the only one on that team. He single-handedly led them to the Finals in 2007. He was the only reason they were not swept in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Watch the Cavs play when LeBron is on the bench. They're terrible. I don't know if this Cleveland team sans LeBron would make the playoffs even in the East. And yet, James is surrounded by more talent than Iverson ever had. Why does no one talk about his failings as a leader or a team player? Why does no one say LeBron's style isn't conducive to winning titles? Because he averages 7 assists a game? The ball is always in his hands. He's the only one on that team who can even GET assists, just like Iverson in his heyday. I don't see much of a difference in their careers to date (Statistical monsters who fall short in the postseason), yet James gets all praise and Iverson gets all ridicule.
A lot of that ridicule goes towards Allen Iverson the person. I agree that he's made his fair share of mistakes, but why keep harping on them? How many players go through their careers without problems off the court? It's pretty rare. And as Iverson has gotten older, those problems haven't cropped up, yet it is still impossible for him to escape their shadow. His personality and lifestyle make him who he is, even on the court. He has been called out for being defiant and being a rebel, but that force of personality is a common thread among most NBA greats, whether it's Kobe's frigid arrogance, LeBron's pompous dance moves, Shaq's lyrical barbs, or KG's incessant chirping. Even Michael Jordan's Hall of Fame speech dripped with contempt for his peers. Yet more criticism is heaped on A.I. than any of them. What about the positives of his personality? He wears his heart on his sleeve. He is never afraid to speak his mind. Hardly any athlete of this generation has given us as much access to their own mind and heart, something all of us crave in this day and age of Twitter and Facebook. He's always been a terrific interview and has given us the greatest press conference of all time (As well as this great spin-off video). His love and passion for the game has always been apparent, and he has shown contrition for his previous errors. Instead of looking down on him in contempt, people should appreciate how media and fan-friendly he has been throughout his career, and how easy he has made it to follow him, even before the age of Twitter. It's part of the reason why Iverson has been so influential and had such a huge impact on so many people and players throughout the nation.
I predicted before the season started that Allen Iverson would get his revenge this year. A man with so much pride and and defiance badly wanted to show that he could still play at a high level in the NBA. So far, it hasn't happened. But it's not his fault. Memphis clearly did not use him properly and it was best for both sides that he left. Now hopefully the Sixers will give him the opportunity he craves. The team and the city needs it. With Elton Brand's career falling off a cliff and the injury to Lou Williams, Philadelphia finds itself lacking playmakers and guys who can get their own shot. While Andre Iguodala is a great player, he's not a guy you want to go to as your number one option on offense. He's too inefficient and has a very inconsistent jump shot. Iggy is much better suited to slashing when he has the chance, cutting to the basket, running his lane, and catching and finishing around the rim (Think Shawn Marion on the Suns a few years ago). The emerging Thaddeus Young has similar strengths and weaknesses. Add Iverson to the mix, and not only can he get his own shot more effectively than they can, he can also create for them and get them easier looks at the basket. While he may still be a "selfish" gunner, he can keep the team in games by himself. And with good defenders behind him, he can go after steals like he has always excelled at. If used properly, there's no way he can't help the Sixers. I don't understand how people got the idea that his game has totally diminished and that he's lost a few steps. We haven't even seen the guy play in 2 years. He hasn't this year, and don't tell me last year's disaster season in Detroit counts. That wasn't him and everyone knows it. The last time we saw the real Iverson play, he was putting up over 26 points, 7 assists, and 2 steals in nearly 42 minutes per game for the Nuggets. I've seen nothing in his game or abilities to show me that he can't come close to those numbers now (After he gets back in game shape of course). He's had significant time off the last year and a half so you know he's fresh, and you certainly know that he's motivated.
Allen Iverson has been one of my favorite players in the league throughout his career and I have loved following him for who he is, a great player and a fascinating person in his own right. Instead of dwelling so much on his shortcomings and criticizing his personality and decisions (Because he is who he is and that's clearly not going to change), let's celebrate his achievements and pull for him to go out with a bang in true Iverson fashion. I wish him nothing but great success in his last hurrah, and I wish that more people did the same.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Appreciate the Smoothies
No, not that kind of smoothie!! As we have now sunk our teeth into the new NBA season, talk over potential All-Star and MVP candidates is beginning to heat up, and all the usual suspects are at the top of the list. I encourage NBA fans to take a closer look at some slightly underrated players before filling out their All-Star ballots and throwing themselves behind an MVP candidate. There is a common thread among these players that makes them a little undervalued. They’re what I like to call “smooth” players. People know that these guys are good, but I don’t think they realize just how good they are. Fans today are enamored with highlight plays, and as a result the players who make those plays get elevated just a little bit more, while guys who do things the more conventional way are overlooked a bit. People are mesmerized by LeBron’s monster dunks, Dwight’s emphatic rejections, D-Wade’s magical circus shots,
Any conversation about the quietly great begins and ends with the Big Fundamental, Tim Duncan. Timmy D has subtly been the premiere post player of the last decade, the only big man left in the game who dominates on both ends of the floor. Obviously everyone knows he’s good, evidenced by him starting in the All Star Game every year, but I don’t think they appreciate how HISTORICALLY good he’s been. There’s a reason people like Charles Barkley (A pretty darn good power forward himself) call him the greatest power forward of all time. I named him my MVP of the 2000s over players like
Another big man whose smooth game gets lost in the shuffle primarily because he plays with a highlight heavyweight is Pau Gasol. If you’ve never watched Gasol closely, trust me, you’re missing out. A couple of years ago I myself believed that Gasol was overrated and really wasn’t that good. Now after the All Star appearances, championship spotlight, and acting guest spots, I think he’s rather underrated (As a player, not an actor. Side Note: WHY would anyone want Pau Gasol to act in any role in which he does not play himself unless it was on a show aired in
Sticking to bigs, a third who flies under the radar is Al Jefferson. While a lot of that has to do with him being stuck on a bad team in a small market, Jefferson was unheralded even during his time in Boston, though those were some bad teams too as people seem quick to forget.
It’s not all about the big men though. Leading the smooth swingmen is my boy Brandon Roy. People really don’t know how good this young guy is. Last year John Hollinger wrote about how
If you had one possession to win the game, which player in the league would you want to have the ball? I’d be hard pressed to take anyone over Carmelo Anthony. He’s arguably the best pure scorer in the league. Obviously he came into the league with a lot of hype and is well-known throughout the nation, but I’m not sure people really appreciate his mastery of the art of scoring the basketball. There isn’t anyone under 7 feet tall who gets his points easier than Melo. The way he scores at will makes it look so easy. Now that he has an effective outside jumper and added three point range to his arsenal, there’s just no stopping his lethal combination of size, strength, quickness, and athleticism. It just seems like he expends half the energy of
Another “smoothie” who’s among the game's greats is Joe Johnson. JJ rose out of obscurity in
So what makes some players smooth and others not? Is there a common thread among them? I think it’s difficult to pinpoint a single factor, but one interesting thing to note is the career path of the players. A big difference between highlight reel players like say LeBron,
Monday, October 26, 2009
2009-2010 NBA Preview
Move over football! Basketball is back!! With the end of October comes the beginning of the NBA season, and the beginning of the Lakers' defense of their 15th title. (Did I mention the Lakers won their 15th title last year??) Here you will find previews for all 30 teams done power rankings style for who I think is better than who. I've broken the teams down into 5 groups (the Wannabes, the Hopefuls, the Pretenders, the Dark Horses, and the Contenders) based on each team's championship aspirations. After that comes predictions for the upcoming season and finally a fantasy basketball draft guide to live by for all you fantasy geeks out there. So sit down and kick back...this may take a while.
Wannabes
These are the teams that have absolutely no hope for the upcoming season. They might as well just start tanking now and prepare for the 2010 NBA draft.
30.
The Bucks let three of their five starters from a 34 win team a season ago leave without getting anything back. The other two starters played a combined 69 games last year. Top pick Brandon Jennings and head coach Scott Skiles are sure to clash over playing philosophy. Their last couple first rounders have been busts in Joe Alexander and the now departed Yi Jianlian. A huge step backwards for
29.
A team in desperate need of a point guard passing on Ricky Rubio in the draft? Tyreke Evans may be talented, but you can’t convince me he’s going to learn how to run the point. There’s a lot of scoring in the backcourt with him and oft-injured Kevin Martin, but also a lot of 1-on-5 plays. A young front line of Hawes and Thompson could be promising, but the West is loaded with huge, talented frontcourts so it’ll take a lot of development for these kids to catch up. It doesn’t help losing glue guy and underrated all-rounder Garcia for 4 months to a freak injury. Another year without the cowbells ringing at Arco.
28.
Devin Harris has proven to be a beast and Brook Lopez surprised many by ascending the ranks of big men in the league so quickly. But after that, what is there? A lot of young guys, but none without question marks. Can Yi ever look good playing against something other than a chair? Can CDR score in the pros? Does Courtney Lee have any offense? Can Terrence Williams consistently play at the level he is capable of? If all those guys pan out then great. If, as is likely, that is not the case, New Jersey can hope for a move to Brooklyn, a Russian mobster for an owner, a shot at signing LeBron, and stories of Brook Lopez holding up piñatas for kids at their birthday parties for a mere $25,000. Oh what a deal!
27.
If anyone can tell me what the Grizzlies’ plans are, I’d love to hear it. Already with two gunners in Mayo and Gay, the Grizz add Iverson and Randolph. Those four alone will be putting up 80+ shots a game. Marc Gasol seemed to develop nicely last year, but walking bust, I mean, number two overall pick Thabeet will have to be in the lineup regularly to justify his draft slot. I say
26.
No Knick fan cares about this season. All the buzz in the Big Apple will be over whether LeBron will be calling the Garden home in 2010, and will he be bringing some more star power with him? In the meantime, the team will be working much harder on trading Eddy Curry and/or Jared Jeffries’ contracts than attempting to play a lick of defense.
Hopefuls
These teams are on the outside looking in. Some have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, some are just hoping to continue their rebuilding process, and one is hoping they don’t fall out of the playoff race.
25.
They’ve got one stud in Al Jefferson, but not a whole lot around him. The Ricky Rubio situation hasn’t worked out for this season at least, and I think they botched their whole draft with their back-to-back point guard picks. After signing Ramon Sessions as well, who gets the minutes at the point for the T-Wolves? Big Al is coming off of a serious knee injury and K-Love is hurt now too. The departure of Mike Miller and Randy Foye leaves this squad really lacking quality swingmen. If Kurt Rambis learned anything under Phil Jackson, he could begin to turn them around, but I don’t see a huge improvement after they didn’t upgrade their talent a whole lot.
24.
Can Danny Granger be the best player on a championship team? I feel he’s more the Pippen type than the
23.
The one constant for the Dubs is that they’re going to be an entertaining team to keep tabs on. They’ve got more talent than a bunch of teams ahead of them on this list, but they’re run by a mad scientist and their players seem like mismatched puzzle pieces. Don Nelson has no rational method of giving out minutes to his guys, or even having them suit up for games. Captain Jack is already loudly complaining that he wants out, and we’ve seen before that once you get into Nellie’s doghouse, you rarely make it out on good terms. Monta Ellis claims that he can’t share a backcourt successfully with Stephen Curry, something that has to kill a rookie’s confidence. And Ellis himself is coming off of an ugly injury cover-up incident last year. One bright spot could be the development of second year player Anthony Randolph, who everyone around the league agrees has almost unlimited untapped upside (It’s pretty hard to alliterate with U’s. Give me some credit.)
22.
The Rockets are a year removed from putting the biggest scare of any team in the league into the champs, taking the Lakers to 7 games in the second round of the playoffs.
21.
Every year the question is asked: “Is this the year the Bobcats make the playoffs??” And every year the answer is a “No”. I don’t see that changing after the Bobs mysteriously flipped centers with the Hornets, getting Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. In my opinion, that’s a downgrade, maybe even a significant one. What evidence do we have that
20.
It seems like it was just a year ago that we were talking about the Raptors waiting in the wings to rise to the top of the ranks in the East. Oh wait, it was. And yet,
19.
What a shame this team is no longer in the good city of
18.
What a difference a Blake Griffin makes. The Clips get a huge jump on their lottery pick competition by grabbing the only potentially great player in this year’s draft. While
Pretenders
This group is reserved those teams who are playoff-caliber teams, but not much more. They all have talent, but if any one of these teams makes a deep run in the postseason, I’d be surprised. Some of them may be in a dogfight down the stretch just to get in.
17.
It seems like the Pistons were a prime candidate to enter rebuilding mode after their implosion last season. With two-thirds of their title-winning rotation departed, and a good deal of payroll slashed with the Answer and Sheed leaving town, it would be natural for the Pistons to wait a year, let their youngsters like Rodney Stuckey and rookie Austin Daye develop, then use their cap room to splurge on a big free agent next summer with a lottery pick to boot. Instead,
16.
It was the D-Wade show in
15.
The Sixers should flourish in a more uptempo style suited to their athletes and getting Elton Brand back healthy certainly helps, but remember that Brand has now missed nearly all of the past TWO seasons, and Philly seemed to play much better without Brand in the lineup last year. The departure of Andre Miller also hurts as they now have no true point guard to lead them. While Lou Williams can fill it up, he’s a shoot first type of player who may not get all of his talented teammates involved. Andre Iguodala continues to be one of the most underrated all-around players in basketball, but his game was negatively affected the most when Brand was playing a year ago. Thaddeus Young is primed for a breakout year, and he would be a great fit at the power forward spot if the Sixers want to play more small ball this year. Jason Kapono finally brings an outside shot to the table for a team that has been in desperate need for shooters, but he won’t be on the floor in crunch time, so who else will be able to shoot Philly back into games? Ultimately, I think the departure of Andre Miller coupled with the team’s lack of identity with Brand in the lineup will hold back a group that is oozing with potential.
14.
The Hornets are just 2 years removed from nearly having the best record in the Western Conference. Now they have moved back in the pack and seem to be in some slight disarray. They upgraded their low-post offense with the addition of Okafor who should complement David West’s outside game well, but they still lack depth, have a lot of injury concerns, and a gaping hole at shooting guard, especially after giving away Rasual Butler. Peja Stojakovic is just an afterthought at this point in his career, and Morris Peterson always has been. Chris Paul may not have much help in getting his team back to the top and head coach Byron Scott is on a short leash.
13.
The Bulls seem to be treading water for this season. They lose Ben Gordon’s offensive firepower, but John Salmons is now entrenched as the starting 2-guard and they get Luol Deng back. The Bulls still have no depth and are counting largely on Derrick Rose making the leap to offensive juggernaut (Extremely possible. See Durant, Kevin circa 2009.) and their rookies to make up for it. This team will play hard and be exciting to follow, but their reliance on perimeter scoring and lack of depth should slow them down in the playoffs. It may not matter much to Chicago, who are already eyeing potential living accommodations for
12.
Last year the Hawks were the best of the rest after the Big Three in the East. They may hang onto that title after re-signing a few key guys and adding scorer extraordinaire Jamal Crawford. Unfortunately for the Hawks, most of their team is basically in their prime, so banking on internal improvement will not be enough. Mike Bibby may not have a whole lot left in the tank, leaving
11.
The Wiz were awful last year as Agent Zero missed basically his second consecutive full season. Arenas claims that not only is he healthy this year, but he will also stop blogging and focus solely on basketball (Over/under no blogs by January 1, 2010, give me the under.). He still has two great sidekicks in Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, plus starting center Brendan Haywood is back healthy as well. People forget Haywood was very productive, particularly on defense, for
10.
The Jazz are another one of those teams who seemed like they were ready to take the next step and contend for a title just a couple years ago when they made it to the Western Conference Finals. Since then though,
9.
Five years ago the Suns breathed life back into the NBA with Mike D’Antoni’s patented seven-seconds-or-less offense that led to three consecutive deep (but unlucky) playoff runs. After a season of trying to play a more defensive half-court game, the Suns go back to the run-and-gun and I think it will have a similar effect as it did back in 2005. Their guys will be energized, and with Steve Nash running the offense to perfection, everyone will get their touches. Their ability to put points on the board will catch a lot of better teams off guard and lead to a strong bounce-back year in the Desert. The big question here is whether Amar’e Stoudamire will continue to show his displeasure and be traded away rather than allowed to walk as a free agent next summer. I think a fast-paced game suited to his talents will keep him interested enough to play out the season in
Dark Horses
These teams are right on the cusp of being true championship contenders. They still carry more question marks than the league’s royalty, but if everything goes right for one of these teams, they can surprise a lot of people in June.
8.
I said in the intro to this group of teams that if everything goes right for one of these teams it can make a title run. Well I think that already happened for this Nuggets team last year. They made the AI for Billups swap that upgraded their leadership and got their offense to fall exactly into place.
7.
The Mavericks rolled the dice on the Devin Harris for Jason Kidd trade and saw it turn up two early playoff exits in
6.
Three years ago I picked a team in each conference to go from the bottom to the top and be contenders by 2010. In the East, I took the Bobcats. (Yeahhh…let’s move on shall we?) And in the West I jumped on the Blazers. I loved their 2006 draft where they absolutely stole both Brandon Roy (My boy) and LaMarcus Aldridge and they have steadily climbed the ranks since. A lot was expected out of them in last year’s playoffs, but they went down in the first round to
Contenders
The name says it all. Odds are one of these teams are winning the title this year. They are simply a cut above the rest of the NBA.
5.
The Cavs were the darlings of the league last year, finishing with the best record, having LeBron get MVP, and Mike Brown get Coach of the Year. Then they were exposed in the conference finals by
4.
The defending Eastern Conference champs shook up their roster in the offseason. They allowed their best playmaker Hedo Turkoglu to leave town, but acquired another All-Star swingman in Vince Carter for a nominal fee. They sacrifice some of those imposing matchups, but upgrade their athleticism and talent. They took more steps to ensure success in a more traditional setting by re-signing Marcin Gortat and acquiring Brandon Bass to bolster the frontcourt. Adding tough, veteran swingman Matt Barnes also gives them a great rotation on the wings, and Jameer Nelson is more than capable of fulfilling Turoglu’s playmaking abilities. If Dwight Howard learned any post moves at all, the Magic could easily be the best team in the league, but if it hasn’t happened in six years, I can’t assume it will happen now. If the Magic can duplicate their defensive success from a year ago, they can once again represent the East in the Finals.
3.
Two words: Kevin Garnett. With a healthy KG,
2.
A few months ago it seemed that the Spurs dynasty was doomed to its demise. Tim Duncan was worn out, Manu Ginobli couldn’t stay on the court, and their lack of depth was glaring as they turned into the Tony Parker Show. After meekly exiting the playoffs in the first round after five lackluster games to the Mavericks, (Losing 2 of 3 home games no less) it appeared a foregone conclusion that this team’s run was over and it was time to start thinking about rebuilding. But as I have learned over the years, you can NEVER count out an organization like the Spurs. All they did was go out and have the best offseason of any team in the league. They traded what amounts to nothing for a scoring wing, something they were in dire need of, in Richard Jefferson. They also replenished a depleted frontcourt with veteran Antonio McDyess and draft night steal DaJuan Blair to decrease the burden on
1.
You have to put the crown on the heads of the reigning kings. The Lakers became the first team in two decades to win the title a year after losing in the Finals, showing their growth and maturity. Even after hanging another banner at the
Predictions
Order of Finish
| East | West |
| 15. | 15. |
| 14. | 14. |
| 13. | 13. |
| 12. | 12. |
| 11. | 11. |
| 10. | 10. |
| 9. | 9. |
| 8. | 8. |
| 7. | 7. |
| 6. | 6. |
| 5. | 5. |
| 4. | 4. |
| 3. | 3. |
| 2. | 2. |
| 1. | 1. |
Playoffs
Round 1:
Lakers over Clippers
Round 2:
Conference Finals:
NBA Finals:
Awards:
Rookie of the Year- Blake Griffin, PF, Clippers: 15.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg
Most Improved Player- Anthony Randolph, PF, Warriors: 17.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.9 bpg
Sixth Man of the Year- Lamar Odom, PF, Lakers: 10.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg
Coach of the Year- Rick Carlisle: Mavs win 55+ games
Defensive Player of the Year- Dwight Howard: 21.2 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 1.0 spg, 3.3 bpg
MVP- LeBron James: 28.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.2 bpg, Cavs finish with best record again
1st Team All-NBA:
G- Chris Paul: 22.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 11.2 apg, 2.8 spg
G-
F- LeBron James: 28.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.2 bpg
F- Amar’e Stoudamire: 24.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 56% FG
C- Dwight Howard: 21.2 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 3.3 bpg, 59% FG
2nd Team All-NBA:
G- Steve Nash: 16.2 ppg, 11.1 apg, 50% FG, 45% 3-pt, 92% FT
G- Brandon Roy: 22.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.2 spg
F- Kevin Durant: 29.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.4 spg, 1.1 bpg
F- Dirk Nowtzki: 27.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 50% FG, 41% 3-pt, 90% FT
C- Al Jefferson: 24.2 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 51% FG
Fantasy Basketball Rankings
Assuming it’s a head-to-head league with standard 8 categories (no turnovers)
1. Chris Paul (stats above): In a head-to-head league I’m looking to dominate as many categories as I can, and Paul dominates assists and steals while providing incredible percentages, points, and helpful rebounds from a point guard. If he made more threes this would be a no-brainer.
2. LeBron James (stats above): I’d take him first in a roto league, but in head-to-head he doesn’t dominate a single category, except maybe points, but that’s easy to find. Nevertheless no one fills it up across the board like he does, and with him alone you have a solid base to build off of. Just hope his free throw percentage stays where it was last year.
3. Dwyane Wade: 29.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 7.5 apg, 2.3 spg, 1.2 bpg – I left him off of the All-NBA teams because I think he gets hurt, but injuries are tough to predict and his across the board numbers are so good, he has to be the third player taken. The assists from a shooting guard are valuable, he was second to CP3 in steals last year, and did you know that only 15 players in the league blocked more shots than Wade did last season?
4. Dwight Howard (stats above): He’s undraftable in a roto league, but in h2h formats Dwight is a beast. His dominance in field goal percentage, rebounds, and blocks is akin to Paul’s assists and steals, and you can build those strengths to dominate at least 3 categories. His points are great as well as the fact that he can get you a steal per game from your center spot. On the downside, be prepared to lose free throw percentage every week.
5. Kevin Durant (stats above): Durant goes off this year. Not only will he possibly lead the league in points, he’ll do it on very helpful percentages. In fact he could have the most useful free throw percentage if he can get to the line 2 more times per game. Not only that, but he can get you nearly 8 boards a game qualifying as a shooting guard and his 1+ threes/steals/blocks combo is hard to come by.
Rounding out the top 25….
6. Kobe Bryant (free throw attempt numbers will dip a bit)
7. Dirk Nowitzki (amazing percentages and will rebound more in a running system)
8. Danny Granger (1.5 blocks out of a small forward to go with crazy threes and FT%)
9. Deron Williams (joins Paul as only 20-10 point guards)
10. Al Jefferson (combination of points, boards, and blocks as good as Howard's without killing your FT%)
11. Amar’e Stoudamire (love all Suns guys this year)
12. Chris Bosh (20-10 with the percentages, but you need to get blocks elsewhere)
13. Steve Nash (see Stoudamire, Amar’e)
14. Pau Gasol (maybe the best percentages of any big man, while getting you boards and blocks)
15. Brandon Roy (great percentages to go with points and assists from a shooting guard)
16. Andre Iguodala (great across the board, but iffy percentages and he wasn’t as good with Brand in the lineup)
17. Carmelo Anthony (becoming a better all-around contributor each year, could get 8 boards a game)
18. Jason Kidd (elite threes/assists/steals combo, doesn’t shoot enough to kill your FG%)
19. Kevin Garnett (great percentages and 1+ steal/block combo, but the boards will dry up)
20. Joe Johnson (points, threes, FT%, plus assists from a shooting guard, hurts the FG% though)
21. Jose Calderon (fantastic percentages and assists, making more threes now and gets a steal a game)
22. Chauncey Billups (elite FT% and threes, with valuable assists and steals, but drains FG%)
23. Tim Duncan (the Spurs rest him more this year so his numbers dip across the board)
24. Brook Lopez (poor man’s
25. Devin Harris (scoring point guard who still gets assists, steals, and racks up FT attempts without killing FG%)
Sleepers
All the Suns: J-Rich, Barbosa, Hill all steals in the middle to late rounds, and deeper leagues should take a shot on Channing Frye
Andrea Bargnani: Rare combo of threes and blocks, plus qualifies at center and shoots great from the line
Boris Diaw: Contributes across the board and usually goes a round too late
Luis Scola: Proved last year that he can score consistently in the post, and without
Chris Kaman: He may be an injury risk, but so is Camby, and this is the latest you can pick up an elite shot blocker
Tyreke Evans: The Kings are terrible and he’ll basically have free reign over the ball
Busts
All the Grizzlies: If you can predict who’s getting the ball on that team you’re a genius. But you only have a 1-in-6 shot of guessing right. Just stay away.
Troy Murphy: Don’t pay for a career year. That FG% has to drop off and he doesn’t block shots. Plus his boards could decrease with more playing time for Roy Hibbert. He’s not a third round pick.
Carlos Boozer: Big man who doesn’t help you at all in blocks, plus he could get traded and Millsap will eat into his production.
Nene: See the first sentence of Murphy,
Hedo Turkoglu: Better real-life player than fantasy player. Kills your FG% and watch the assists disappear with Calderon running the offense.
Richard Hamilton: Only good for percentages and points, but those have declined in recent years, plus who gets the minutes in the Pistons backcourt?
Ramon Sessions: Wolves took a lot of heat for the Flynn pick so they’ll run him out there as much as possible to justify it, leaving Ramon scrounging for minutes.
And there you have it. Another season of the Lakers dominating the league and me dominating fantasy basketball. If one of those things turns out to be true, I'll call the 2010 season a success. If you know me, you know which one I'd rather have...Enjoy basketball season everyone!!