2010 NFL Preview

I’m coming into the 2010 NFL season with a theory. It’s definitely not my own, but what is now a widely supported one that I tend to agree with. You can’t win without being able to throw the ball effectively (And, consequently, being able to stop the pass). Quarterbacks are even more singularly responsible for wins now then a couple decades ago. Since 1992, this is the list of quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl: Troy Aikman, Aikman, Steve Young, Aikman, Brett Favre, John Elway, Elway, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Brady, Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Roethlisberger, Drew Brees. The last less-than-great quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Brad Johnson in 2002 (Boy do I hate bringing up that game), and he and Trent Dilfer are the only QB’s (aside from Eli and Big Ben for who it’s still too early to tell) on that prestigious list who aren’t either already in the Hall of Fame or almost certainly on their way there. To further underscore the shift to a pass-happy league, consider this. In the first 40 years of the NFL’s Super Bowl era (1966-2005) a quarterback threw for 4,000 yards in a season 56 times (On average, that’s 1.4 quarterbacks doing it per year). In the last 4 years, it has happened 28 times (On average, that’s 7 quarterbacks doing it per year). That’s half as many 4,000 yard seasons in only a tenth of the time! That’s quite a dramatic and very sudden change. There are several reasons for this. One big key is rule changes. Quarterbacks are preciously protected. You can’t even look at them the wrong way without getting hit with a personal foul penalty. Also, defensive backs are forced to be much less physical with wide receivers down the field to avoid penalties. In addition, our favorite fantasy football killer, the RBBC (Running Back By Committee), has taken a strong hold among NFL teams, who have come to the realization that heavy workload backs have an extremely short shelf life (As we have seen with the likes of Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson over the past several seasons). There are no more than a dozen clear number one rushers in the league today. It has been proven over the years that running backs and receivers come and go. Last year no one knew who Jamaal Charles or Miles Austin was. They came out of nowhere to have monster years (And win many fantasy leagues along the way). I mean, Jerome Freaking Harrison had a 286 yard rushing game last season!! But quarterbacks generally don’t come and go (Unless it’s Ben Roethlisberger with a college co-ed in a dirty bathroom, if you catch my drift). Sure, they might come out of obscurity like Tom Brady and Kurt Warner did, but once they establish themselves as elite signal callers, they’re there to stay and their teams contend virtually every single year. So, I’m going to test out the theory of predicting the 2010 NFL season based mostly around the quarterback position.

First Cuts

Here’s what it boils down to: For me, there’s a clear top 10 at QB, with an elite 3 among them. The elites, of course, are: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. The rest of the top 10 goes like this: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and Eli Manning. This group features 6 quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings, 7 who have gotten to the big game, and 8 who have made it to a conference championship game. Of the other two, Aaron Rodgers has only been a starter for two seasons, and it wasn’t his fault that the Packers lost his only playoff game as he put up 423 yards, 4 TDs, and 45 points in a loss to the Cardinals last year. Tony Romo has been the scapegoat for some Cowboys December disappointments, but finally won a playoff game last season, which could be the confidence boost he needed. After this group comes a couple of talented guys who can crack the top 10 if they can find some consistency or show they have more intangibles. Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler belong in this category. Finally, the last group who makes the short list are two players entering their third years, who have already had success leading their teams to the postseason, who I think can make the leap to the upper echelon of quarterbacks. They are Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Based on quarterback play alone, these are the 14 teams who have a shot at winning the Super Bowl. To back up my selections consider this; two of those quarterbacks played in last year’s Super Bowl. Three of them made it to a conference championship game. Nine of them reached the playoffs (Plus Kurt Warner, who was a top 10 guy last year). Twelve of them finished with winning records. All but one went at least .500. And the last one still won 7 games (Although he threw a league high 26 picks en route). The combined 2009 record of the teams the 14 chosen quarterbacks led? A tidy 146-78, good for a winning percentage of better than 65%. That’s no coincidence. And if you examine the list, you’ll see that every conceivable contender for this season is on it apart from two: the Jets and the Bengals.

As for the Bengals, their quarterback Carson Palmer used to be a top 10 guy who looked to be on his way to gaining entry into the elite club, but he was derailed by injuries and has looked a shell of his former self the past 2 seasons. Even with T.O. in the fold, I don’t think Palmer has enough in the tank to get Cincinatti over the hump. And being in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens, who did make the first cut, in a very competitive conference, I think they’ll be the odd team out in the AFC North.

The Jets, meanwhile, are the one team who can buck the trend. They’re a trendy pick by many to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl after shocking everyone on their way to the conference title game last season. The Jets do have half the equation for a successful team; they can sure stop the pass. With Darelle Revis finally signed, they retain arguably the best shutdown corner in the league to go along with a fearsome pass rush, the result of an avalanche of blitzing (Though an injury to Calvin Pace may slow that a bit). Their quarterback, however, was awful last year. Now granted, Mark Sanchez was just a rookie and figures to be improved heading into year two, but I feel that he’s still not even close to the 14 guys who made the short list of contenders. The Jets figure to still be a strong running team, though I feel that’s not a given with an unproven starter in Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson on his last legs. Even with a terrific offensive line blocking for them, the Jets will probably find it a challenge to replace Thomas Jones, the NFL’s second leading rusher last year. Sanchez will be forced to make plays for the Jets to make another deep postseason run, and while the addition of Santonio Holmes, along with a full season of Braylon Edwards gives Sanchez a nice arsenal of talented weapons, I still don’t think he has the vision or decision-making ability yet that New York will need from him to win a ring this year. I do have the Jets making the playoffs, but I don’t put them in the upper crust of AFC teams.

Second Cuts

To consolidate our choices a bit, let’s go back to the list of the 14 quarterbacks and take a quick glance at the teams they lead. The list of contenders runs like this: Colts, Patriots, Saints, Packers, Steelers, Chargers, Cowboys, Vikings, Redskins, Giants, Texans, Bears, Ravens, Falcons. From here we can rule out some obvious pretenders.

Bye bye Bears. Cutler has all the talent in the world, but lacks the necessary intangibles a quarterback needs to be truly great, Plus, as he showed last year, he is a turnover machine who will now be under more pressure from opposing pass rushers in Mike Martz’ offensive system where pass plays take a lot of time to develop. He could make a significant improvement and still turn the ball over 25+ times. Throw in the fact that he has no proven receiving options and Chicago has to compete with Minnesota and Green Bay in the NFC North, and they’re clearly on the cut list.

Wake me up when the Texans actually make the playoffs. I feel like they’ve been trendy sleepers for the last 4 years, yet something always goes wrong. This time, I’m not taking the bait. Matt Schaub has yet to put together back to back healthy seasons and Andre Johnson has a bit of an injury history as well. With no proven running backs and a defense that is great at failing to live up to it’s potential, there’s no way the Texans can best the Colts in the AFC South, and with an always solid, well-coached Titans team also in the division, I don’t think Houston can sneak in as a Wild Card either.

Last year I picked the Giants to go to the Super Bowl. Whoops. Their defense was atrocious and while they’re in line for an improvement, I don’t think they’ll get back to their 2007 championship form. Eli was good last season, and has plenty of quality receiving options, but a shaky offensive line might not give him enough time to find his talented targets. The running game is in turmoil as Brandon Jacobs is already unhappy with his role, and in the best division in football; it will be tough for New York to even make it to the playoffs.

The Redskins improved the most out of any team in the league on paper. Not only did they snare a top 10 QB during the offseason, but also brought in a 2-time Super Bowl winning coach. That said, Donovan McNabb doesn’t have nearly the same caliber of weapons as he had in Philly, plus he’s an injury prone quarterback (He already missed nearly all of the preseason with a sprained ankle) dropping back behind a questionable offensive line. But hey, at least the backfield tandem of Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson is great…or it would be if this was 2006. A decent defense could be downgraded with the loss/riddance/sulking/benching of Albert Haynesworth. They too share the same problem as the Giants of being in the NFL’s toughest division. There are too many question marks on this team to make them a true contender in 2010.

The Chargers have had a great run atop the AFC West the last few seasons. While I believe the rest of that division is still weak enough for them to win it once more, I think they drop down from contenders to pretenders. Year 3 of the Norv Turner era has usually been the breaking point for a team’s success, and San Diego faces that situation this year. Even though Philip Rivers is terrific, the nearly imminent loss of his best wideout Vincent Jackson would leave him with no proven NFL wide receivers. Also, with the holdout of left tackle Marcus McNeill, Rivers may find himself on the ground a lot more than he is accustomed to. Add to that the departure of LT and the Chargers are turning to a rookie running back from a school that played in a very weak conference (Outside of Boise State) to be their workhorse back. And with Shawn Merriman no longer being “Lights Out”, the defense lacks the playmakers it was once loaded with. Not to mention their kicker, Nate Kaeding, might have lost all his confidence after a horrifying postseason performance last season. With regressions expected in all phases of the game, I have to cut the Chargers here as well.

Third Cuts

Now we’re down to 9 teams: the Colts, Patriots, Saints, Packers, Steelers, Cowboys, Vikings, Ravens, and Falcons. Time to weed out the squads who will make it to a conference championship game.

I really like the Falcons this year. I think Matt Ryan will take a step forward in his third season. Roddy White is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL and the return of a healthy Michael Turner makes Atlanta a huge threat in the running game. An improving defense will bolster them as well, and I really think they can give the Saints a run for their money in the division. But I still think they lack the firepower to go all the way, and even as Ryan improves, I don’t see him severely outplaying Brees, Rodgers, Romo, or Favre which is what it will take to beat those teams on the road in the playoffs.

Everything went right for the Vikings last season. It was their year, yet they still managed to throw it away (Literally, with Favre’s fatal interception in the NFC title game). I think there’s no way Favre could repeat what was the best season of his career at 41 even if everything else stayed the same. And the bigger problem is, things aren’t the same. Favre’s ankle is gimpy and he’s still not sure if it’ll ever fully recover. His best wide receiver, Sidney Rice, is out at least half the year, and his second best option, Percy Harvin, is dealing with recurring migraines and is a threat to pass out at any time (As he did at practice a couple weeks ago). A less potent passing attack will make life tougher on Adrian Peterson, who has some fumbling issues to work out himself. Combine that with a slightly overrated defense, a terrible coach, and the rise of the Packers in their division, and I think the Vikings cede the NFC North to Green Bay and struggle just to make the playoffs.

It’s tough for me to rule out the Steelers, but I have to do it. With Big Ben out for the first 4 games, Pittsburgh could be looking at a 1-3 start. A week 4 loss to Baltimore would put them in a hole in a division where both the Ravens and the Bengals will be tough to beat. Even after Roethlisberger returns, the loss of Santonio Holmes limits his options, and if Hines Ward begins showing his age there won’t be many reliable targets left. The injury to starting tackle Willie Colon hurts a pass protection that got Roethlisberger sacked a league high 50 times a year ago. As long as Troy Polamalu stays healthy that defense will be solid as a rock, but with the physical pounding Polamalu takes, that’s certainly no guarantee. Ultimately I think their slow September start will keep them from being in the mix for home field in the playoffs, and I just can’t see them winning in two out of Baltimore, Indy, and Foxboro in the postseason with all the issues they are facing.

There is a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will be the first team ever to host the Super Bowl. While they certainly have the talent to do so, I think they will fall just short. They have offensive line questions, and their running backs seem to have an awfully tough time staying healthy for a full season. Dez Bryant may take most of the year to get into the flow of an NFL game after missing most of training camp with an injury. And I’ve yet to trust Tony Romo to get through 3 or 4 playoff games without killing a team with his mistakes.

When I first thought about the upcoming season, my first instinct was to put the Baltimore Ravens into the Super Bowl. I’ve really liked their team the past couple seasons and I think Joe Flacco will make the jump to upper echelon quarterback status in his third season. With the additions of Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Donte Stallworth, and the two tight ends they drafted in April to the always steady Derrick Mason, Flacco has a complete stable of options to go to. With a good offensive line and a fearsome rushing attack led by young thoroughbred Ray Rice, it’s an offense primed to be among the top units in the league. Let’s remember though, that Boldin has only played 16 games in a season once since 2003 and seems perpetually banged up. Housh was a huge disappointment in Seattle last season and looks to be in decline. Mason is getting up there in age. Stallworth is coming off of a traumatic couple of seasons, especially off the field. The new tight ends are still rookies. And it’s still a pretty big leap of faith to say that Flacco can rise into the top 7 or 8 quarterback range. The defense may be able to bolster them enough to get by without everything on offense working out the way it looks on paper, but they have major issues at cornerback. While the return of All-Pro safety Ed Reed can cover some mistakes in the secondary, the Ravens just don’t have the personnel at corner that they will need to slow down the awesome aerial attacks led by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. And if they can’t keep those guys from scoring 30 points, I don’t think their offense, even with all its potential, will be able to keep up.

Final Cuts

With just the Colts, Patriots, Saints, and Packers (What do you know? Those teams happen to coincide with my top 4 quarterback choices) remaining, it’s time to get down to the nitty-gritty.

Wouldn’t a Saints-Packers matchup be the most entertaining game of the year? It would be along the lines of the Cardinals-Packers playoff game last year that ended 51-45; two high-flying offenses and playmaking defenses. I think this year’s Packers are last year’s Saints. Aaron Rodgers is in his third season as the starter coming off of a spectacular 2009 campaign and he has weapons on top of weapons. Greg Jennings is a dynamic deep threat. Donald Driver is as steady as they come underneath. Jermichael Finley is a matchup problem at tight end. James Jones can make plays on the outside. And they still have a 1200 yard rusher in Ryan Grant. The offensive line can’t be worse than the one that let Rodgers get sacked 50 times last year, and the Packers spent a couple of early round picks this year to help shore up that line. Their defense was one of the best in league last season and features reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson (My old favorite player since his college days at Michigan). While I think they still have holes (As they showed when they gave up those 51 points to Arizona last playoffs), it’s a defense that can force turnovers and make big plays, which was exactly what the Saints defense did last year on their way to a Super Bowl. The Saints, meanwhile, are still a formidable team. With the great Drew Brees at the helm they’ll be a tough out. You know that offense will be humming along just fine. The key for them though is to get better on defense. They weren’t great on that side of the ball last year, but were able to make up for it with turnovers that they turned into scores, (No better example than the interception return for a touchdown that sealed their Super Bowl win) a feat that has shown to be fluky and hard to duplicate from year to year. With the Packers possessing an offense that can match them point for point, the edge that Green Bay has defensively gives them, I think, the NFC crown.

Here we go again. How many big Colts-Patriots games have we seen the last few years? I think they’re the class of the conference once more and will meet again in the AFC title game. You already know all about the Colts offense. Peyton Manning has possibly the deepest talent pool of receiving targets he has ever had with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie entering their second seasons, and the once promising Anthony Gonzalez coming back as a 4^th wide receiver for this team. Add them to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, two elites at their respective positions, and Manning is guaranteed to throw for over 4000 yards yet again. They need depth on defense to go all the way and the Colts feel like they have some this year. Still, I’d feel much better about their chances if I knew that Bob Sanders would be healthy to key their secondary. Even without him though, they can generate a great pass rush just with their two outstanding defensive ends, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Patriots offense tells a similar tale. With Wes Welker apparently nearly recovered from a major knee injury, and the addition of two skilled rookie tight ends and another rookie wide receiver, Tom Brady has some great toys to play with as well (Don’t forget Brady’s now 2 years removed from his major knee injury and should be able to move much better than last season). Plus, Brady and Randy Moss are both playing for new contracts this year and I don’t need to remind you what they did in 2007 without any financial motivation. New England’s defense looks very strong up the middle, but this was a unit that let them down last year, and even a significant improvement would barely get them into the upper third of the league. I’m not sure if that will be enough to stop Manning’s Colts. To me, these two teams are so evenly matched that the deciding factor in this game is simply where it will be played. We’ve seen the fits Manning has had playing out in the elements at Foxboro and how the Colts have triumphed indoors on a fast track. The Patriots have to get through a much tougher division than Indy does, likely giving the Colts home field in this matchup, and therefore the win in my book.

Super Bowl

A Colts-Packers Super Bowl would a lot of fun to see. They actually met a couple of weeks ago in a preseason contest in Green Bay where the Packers thrashed the Colts 59-24. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense looked superb in the first half of that game, but it was a preseason game with Indy likely showing just a vanilla defense, so I don’t want to read too much into it. However, I can’t help but be influenced by the way that the Packers looked against the Colts starting defense. It proves to me that they can at least move the ball effectively against that defense in a real game. I’ll go back to what I said earlier though; I think this year’s Packers are last year’s Saints, and last year’s Saints were good enough to beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. Therefore, the Green Bay Packers are your 2010 NFL Super Bowl champions. Three words: Brett Favre who?

The Decision

The most sensational NBA free agency period we've ever seen crested with LeBron James' contrived reality TV special during which he announced he would be joining Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami to play for the Heat. First some thoughts on how he handled the process, and then his basketball prospects down in South Beach.

The TV special was a mistake. We all know that LeBron likes attention, and he certainly got a lot of it last night. There's no disputing the fact that people were interested and the ratings for the show back that up. The problem was that it created a lot of negative attention for him. People saw it as shameless, narcissistic self-promotion, and it made it seem like he was full of himself (which he probably is thanks all the people who have sucked up to him over the years and told him that he was the "King" and let him have whatever he wanted). There was nothing inherently wrong with what he did. After all, people certainly were intrigued enough to tune in and it gave people something to talk about all day. (I know I couldn't wait to hear the news myself, even though all reports already had him going to Miami) He even donated the sponsorship money to charity, a noble act to be sure. But it just seemed wrong. The fact that he didn't tell the teams beforehand, especially Cleveland, about his decision was less than kind. And what he did to Cavs fans, to go on national TV and tell everyone that he was bolting to Miami was heartbreaking. It was like a movie script. Cleveland was the girl who was always there for him, married him before he made it big, was a supportive wife and good mother. Maybe not the most attractive, but loving and caring and devoted solely to him. Miami is the hot girl who comes along after the fame and glory kick in. She doesn't really care about him, but enjoys the perks of linking up with someone so powerful. She whispers to him to come down and fool around and have fun and do it up real big. She seduces him to join her with her climate, entertainment, nightlife, and lack of state taxes. LeBron left the good wife for the hot mistress (Almost like Tiger Woods, only Tiger did it to his actual wife...about 15 different times) and he did it in public, in front of everyone on national TV. I totally get why the Cavs fans are as angry as they are, even though I think Cavs owner Dan Gilbert's comments over the last 24 hours have been a bit over the top. He's a free agent, (key word there being "free") and the NBA is a business, not a relationship. So while the fans in Cleveland had more of an attachment to LeBron than any other city had to any other player in sports, LeBron has the right to do what he thinks is best for himself. He could (and maybe should) have done it in a quieter, humbler, less egotistical way, but he's King James and he likes drawing a crowd. He only compounded the negativity by claiming he had made up his mind only that morning. That's not fooling anyone. A full 10 days before he announced he was headed to Miami, reports came out predicting that exact scenario. Stephen A. Smith (What the hell happened to that guy anyways???) called it a done deal and on the radio in LA, John Ireland reported that his most trusted source was convinced it was going down as well. Perhaps he hadn't 100% committed to the Heat going into free agency, but I'm sure he had already discussed his plans with Wade and Bosh and was leaning heavily in Miami's direction. He just wanted to go through the recruitment process to build the drama for his TV special, which was rumored to have been concocted months ago. What a waste of time for 5 teams who really had no shot at getting him. The least he could have done was be honest. If he had said he wanted to play with his buddies and to live in South Beach at least some people would understand (How many people out there wouldn't want to live in South Beach and play basketball with their friends for a living? Exactly.). Instead he lies straight-faced to the entire nation and makes himself look even worse. LeBron has had everyone in the basketball universe praising him and kissing up to him for the past 7 years. It took just one hour for him to undo all of that and become the sports world's newest villain (at least until Michael Vick does something stupid again....oh he just did? You don't say...). There are now a lot of people out there rooting against him ever finding success, and the Heat just became the team that everyone will love to hate.

Was it the right decision basketball-wise? We all wondered what was the most important thing to LeBron going into free agency. His decision would tell us. If he stayed with the Cavs, we'd know loyalty was first priority. If he chose the Knicks, it would be money, fame, and glory. If it was Miami, it would be winning. Well, he chose winning. And if that's what he wants, it's certainly attainable there with Wade and Bosh already on board and Pat Riley steering the ship. Everyone has talked so much about LeBron not winning a championship the past few years. Maybe it got to him and he felt the need to start chasing rings now, even before he hits his prime years. A piece of me was rooting for this to happen. I wanted to see 3 big stars team up and try to tear up the league. It's an exciting prospect. Never before have we seen 2 of the 3 best players in the entire NBA play together before (The closest in my lifetime to that level was probably Shaq and Kobe in the early 2000s. That resulted in 3 straight titles and 4 Finals appearances in 5 seasons. And those two HATED each other. These guys are actually close friends). And in this case, they have another top-15 player running with them as well. They're not just the Big Three. They're the Biggest Freaking Three We Have Ever Seen Ever (at least in the modern era). I, like many people, have some doubts as to whether they can assemble a functional NBA roster around those 3 stars, not to mention whether 3 guys in their primes, who were used to being alpha dogs on their previous teams (2 of them vying for top dog in the entire league) can adjust their games and jell together to actually play like a superteam. In my opinion, all that rests on the shoulders of LeBron. I think Chris Bosh knows his place. He's the third banana (the best third banana in the league by a wide margin) and he came to play with superstars, not to be the superstar himself. If he wanted that, he'd have taken the max somewhere else. He can be Pau Gasol, a great player who can't be the best player on a championship team, but can be the best sidekick on a championship team. The real question is, can LeBron adjust his game to become a great sidekick as well? Wade has been the closest imitation of Jordan we've seen since MJ retired (in terms of style-of-play, being a gamer, leader, and winner). Miami is his city. The Heat are his team. LeBron has to put all ego aside and accept a backup role. He can be a rich man's Scottie Pippen. Maybe it's even his destiny to become that. Everyone has always touted him as the "Next One", comparing him to Jordan and Magic and assuming that one day he would take his place next to them on the list of all-time greats. But he's always fallen a little short of expectations. He just doesn't seem to have that same mentality and killer instinct that guys like Jordan had, or even Wade has. He does have all the tools, however, to be the greatest do-it-all wingman we've ever witnessed (see what I did there). He's blessed with physical gifts that even most NBA players aren't. He can do more to help a team win without scoring 30 a game than anyone else in the league. He's ultra-versatile. He can play 4 different positions. He can be the point guard and run the offense and set up his teammates all game. He can rebound. He can defend 3 or 4 positions well. He can create turnovers with his dynamic steals and blocks. He can run a fastbreak. He can change the entire momentum of a game with one spectacular dunk or pull-up 35 foot dagger. And we know that he can score in bunches or take over a game if Wade is sitting out or is tired. If he sacrifices his individual glory and focuses on being a shutdown defender and elite playmaker, the Heat may become the most devastating force we've seen since the height of Jordan's Bulls. Wade can be the poor man's Jordan. LeBron can be the rich man's Pippen. Bosh brings something to the table that those Bulls teams never had. A super-skilled big man who can also be the best player on the floor on any given night. That's a scary thought. As long as the Biggest Three keep their egos in check and accept the roles in which they fit best, they can accomplish something special over the next few years.

In a historical sense however, LeBron just torched his legacy the way some Cavs fans were torching his jersey in the streets of Cleveland last night. As soon as he uttered the words "I'm taking my talents to South Beach to play with the Heat" he admitted he was a failure. He gave up, quit, forfeit, surrendered, threw in the towel, raised the white flag, pulled a France, whatever you want to call it. Instead of trying to beat them, he joined them. That will forever be a knock against him. When Jordan couldn't get past the Pistons in the late 80's, he didn't look to Larry Bird or Magic Johnson to deliver him a ring. He gritted his teeth and willed his team to win and become NBA champions. At the tender age of 25, before he even hits his prime, LeBron has already thrown away his legacy to chase a ring. He's Karl Malone circa 2004, only about 37 years younger. It's astonishing to me that such a great player would give up that soon. Now he wants to ride Wade's coattails to a title. Make no mistake about it, the Heat are Dwyane Wade's team. He's been the face of the franchise the last seven years, he has the ring and the Finals MVP (and would probably have had 2 if he didn't get injured in '05). Has the guy most people proclaim to be the best player in the world ever gone to play for another team that already had an established superstar? Not in my lifetime. How can he be the best player in the league if he's not even the alpha dog on his own team? The majority of the greatest players of all time got the job done with one franchise. Jordan with the Bulls. Russell and Bird with the Celtics, Magic, Kobe, and West with the Lakers, Duncan with the Spurs. Since LeBron came into the league, he's been labeled as the "Chosen One", someone that every basketball pundit expected to finish as one of the 4 or 5 greatest to ever play the game. Now if his titles come courtesy of Dwyane Wade, I don't see him cracking the top 12 on that list no matter what he does from here on out. Maybe he's accepted that fate. Maybe he knows deep down he doesn't have what it takes to make basketball's Mount Rushmore. It just comes as a disappointment to every one who thought they were witnessing (There I go again being clever!) something extra-special. No one thought LeBron James had a ceiling as a basketball player. He just put one on himself.

2010 NBA Free Agent Frenzy

It's finally here. We've been waiting for it, talking about it, salivating over it for close to two years now. July 1, 2010. The start of the most anticipated and ballyhooed free agency period in the history of the NBA. After all, two of the top three and seven of the (arguably) top fifteen players in the league have the opportunity to change the fortunes of a few lucky franchises. No one can predict how the league will look next year. Will the stars spread themselves out looking for max contracts or will a few superstars take a pay cut to join forces and create a superteam? Right now the Lakers have no clear oppposition as favorites to win next year's championship. In a few days, however, they might not even be considered among the top 2 or 3 teams in the NBA. Everything hinges upon the decision of one man: LeBron James.

First of all, I must say I feel really sorry for whoever loses out on the LeBron sweepstakes, particularly for the Knicks and Nets because they have spent the last two years tanking it and clearing cap space to welcome LeBron and whichever superstar he chooses to bring along to the New York area. As signs keep pointing to LeBron not choosing the Big Apple, the Knicks have to move on to Plan B, which may be to reunite the 2005 Suns by signing Amar'e Stoudamire and Joe Johnson to add to former Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni (I hear Bo Outlaw and Maciej Lampe are looking for work too). Add that to the below average group already in place and you get a 45 win team that cannot make it past the conference semis at best. In that case I think New York's 37 year championship drought may last a while longer. The Nets are slightly better off if they can't land LeBron (I know that sounds crazy considering they lost 70 games last year) but they have a much better young core in place than the Knicks do (Adding Derrick Favors via this year's draft to Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and co.) plus they have a mad Russian billionaire taking over their team ready to throw his money at anything that moves. In fact if the Nets don't end up with LeBron, they're actually in a good position to grow with their young talent by giving Rudy Gay less than the max and maybe trying to swing a deal for Chis Paul.

If LeBron doesn't decide to build his global icon status in Manhattan, where would he go then? The most logical destination for him would actually be the Clippers in my opinion. They already have an impressive collection of talent and happen to lack a small forward and a true superstar to push them over the top (Two areas that LeBron has covered...except maybe the whole push them over the top thing. After all, he's won as many NBA Finals games as I have in his career. Sorry, had to get that remark in there.). Los Angeles would be a fantastic base to achieve his global icon dreams with oodles of worldwide exposure opportunities in Hollywood as well as plenty of trendy celebrities to associate with. He could lead a glamorous life while playing for a surprisingly good team in a great city. There's just one problem; it's the Clippers. Would he dare risk the Clipper Curse and blowing out his knee in his first game? Would he want to play for an owner who has run the worst franchise in sports for the last three decades? Would he want to play second fiddle to Kobe and the Lakers in the same city and take even more criticism for paling in comparison to the Black Mamba? If LeBron is as savvy as everyone says he is, the answer has to be no, and that's a real shame for a team poised to make some noise.

If not the Clippers, it's got to be Miami right? After all, LeBron supposedly got together with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to discuss the move last weekend. Wade is certainly staying and Bosh looks highly likely to join him. Adding LeBron would produce the scariest threesome the league has seen in a quarter century. When Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce in Boston 3 summers ago, the Celtics won a title immediately. This proposed new Big Three is even better than that one (on paper anyways) and would certainly attract aging veterans willing to take a pay cut in exchange for a ring. But I just can't see that combination actually coming together on the court. I can't picture LeBron and Wade working together cohesively for an entire NBA schedule. Some make the argument that Wade is a poor man's Jordan and LeBron is a rich man's Pippen, but while that may be true in terms of their games, it isn't how they've played. In particular, LeBron hasn't been brought up that way. He has always been THE MAN on every team he's ever played on. He came into the league with more hype than any other player in the history of the NBA. He's been carrying the Cavs by himself for the past seven years. He's been designated by the majority of the basketball world to be the best player in the game today. All that goes out the window if he skips to South Beach. LeBron would be admitting, at the tender age of 25, before he's even in his prime years, that he's a failure. He couldn't win a title so he went to Miami to ride Wade's coattails to a championship. Even if that's not the case, it will be the perception. The Heat is Wade's team. Miami is his city. He's the one who has gotten it done in the postseason before, the one who already has some playoff hardware to his name (a championship ring and a Finals MVP to be exact). And besides Wade, how much of the credit will Pat Riley take? If Riles and Wade get all the props for delivering LeBron his ring, where does that leave his legacy? LeBron was supposed to be on track to be one of the 10 or even 5 best players who ever lived when all was said and done. If this is the only way he can win, can he really crack the top 10 or even top 12 ever? Doesn't Wade have to leapfrog him at least in terms of who's better in today's game, if not historically? At the end of quarters and games who gets the ball and who stands in the corner and watches? Global icons can't be the second banana to their own colleagues. I don't believe LeBron's ego can let him accept this fate. Plus, you can't convince me that three men in their mid-to-late twenties would forgo 6-8 million dollars each to play with each other. Miami sounds too good to be true.

That leaves one destination: Chicago, the city that Jordan made. We already know that LeBron is changing his number from MJ's 23 to (Bill Russell's) 6. The Bulls do already have a stud point guard in place with Derrick Rose, as well as a great defense/energy center in Joakim Noah. After clearing Kirk Hinrich's contract, the Bulls have cap space enough for two max deals. If I were LeBron, I'd take one of those slots and try my best to convince Dirk Nowtizki to take the other one. I don't understand why everyone is so keen on pairing LeBron and Wade with Chris Bosh, when Dirk is the next best free agent available. He'd overtake Pau Gasol as the best sidekick in the league. Like Pau, he wasn't quite good enough to win a title as the best guy, and repeatedly underachieved in the postseason. He's an aging veteran who may see this as his last chance for a big payday and to position himself for a big-time role on a title-winning team, and Dallas does not have what it takes for him to get it done. Even considering his age and considerable minutes log, I think he has the type of game that will keep him in the league longer than people think (a less-than-physical specimen who plays on one side of the floor and has an easy, unguardable offensive weapon...think Kareem if he was 5 inches shorter and could shoot threes and was German). He provides LeBron with something he could really use; a reliable number two option who's good for 24 points a night without even really trying who's used to taking (and making) clutch shots down the stretches of big games. Plus he's one the top 2 or 3 guys in the league in terms of icing games at the free throw line, another thing that LeBron struggles with. He doesn't even need the ball that much to be effective.They're perfect complements to each other. LeBron and Rose can dominate the ball and create for Dirk for the whole game, and down the stretch Dirk can pick up LeBron and help close out games if James struggling or doesn't have the energy to go 1-on-5 anymore. And with James and Noah as his frontline mates, Dirk's defensive inabilities can be largely masked. All the Bulls have to do is add a couple shooters to the roster (Ray Allen, Mike Miller, JJ Redick, and Raja Bell are all available at the moment) and perhaps trade Luol Deng for some extra depth and other assets. Now that's a championship caliber team. People may argue that LeBron wouldn't want to play in Jordan's shadow in the Windy City, but let me pose this question: Has playing for the Lakers after all the greats who have donned the championship purple and gold (Magic, Kareem, West, Wilt, Elgin, Shaq just to name a few) hurt Kobe Bryant's legacy much?

Then again, LeBron can always decide to stay in Cleveland. He is a hometown hero there, and knows the city's tortured sports history well. It may just be too hard for him to walk away and leave his own people in the dumps like that. Maybe he refuses to be perceived as a failure for running away to another team. After all, the best of the best (for the most part) got it done with one team and one team only (Jordan, Russell, Magic, Bird, Duncan, Kobe). The Cavs did win 60-plus games each of the last 2 seasons and finished both times with the best regular season record in the league. Oddly enough, people are quick to dismiss the team as legitimate championship contenders now. It's funny how more people picked them to win the title than any other team each of the last 2 years. The Mo Williams and Shaq and Antawn Jamison acquisitions were all deemed the one that put Cleveland over the top, but now all anyone says is that LeBron has no help. Make up your minds people. And he can still get help. Shaq's $20 million contract is now off the books. Why not take that money and sign Chris Bosh? Or sign David Lee and Ray Allen? Why does LeBron have to leave in order to get the help he needs? If you wanted to win a title wouldn't you agree to go to the team with the supposed best player in the league? The Cavs have shown their willingness to spend money in order to appease LeBron and improve the team as much as possible. To me this seems like a prime opportunity to sign someone that LeBron really wants. Think you made a mistake by trading for Jamison instead of Amar'e last year? Well now you can go sign him yourself. Let LeBron play GM like he wants to and choose the superstar or pair of stars he wants to play with so Cleveland can go get them. Not to mention they own LeBron's Bird rights and can pay him more money with an extra year as well. With up to 30 million additional dollars in his account, LeBron can keep trying to bring his hometown some much deserved championship glory.

So where will everyone end up? I have no idea. It all depends on LeBron. He's the first domino to fall and I'm not even sure he's made up his mind yet. What I do know is that this will be the most fascinating free agency period I've ever witnessed (no pun intended...okay, it was intended). Just for fun, here are my predictions for where the top free agents end up:

Rudy Gay- New Jersey Nets
David Lee- Phoenix Suns
Carlos Boozer- Miami Heat
Ray Allen- Chicago Bulls
Paul Pierce- Boston Celtics
Joe Johnson- New York Knicks
Amar'e Stoudamire- Miami Heat
Chris Bosh- Chicago Bulls
Dirk Nowitzki- Dallas Mavericks
Dwyane Wade- Miami Heat
LeBron James- Los Angeles Clippers....(no, just kidding)....Chicago Bulls

Let the free agent frenzy begin!

2010 NBA Finals: Game 7 Preview

On the radio they're calling it "the biggest day in the history of LA". Not just for basketball in LA, not just for sports in LA, but for anything in LA. EVER. Is that hyperbole? Ask anyone what comes to mind when they think of LA and the Lakers are almost always one of the 3 foremost things associated with the city. So yeah, it may very well be that big. The hometown hero Lakers against the hated Celtics in a Game 7 to decide the fate of another championship. It's all on the line at the downtown hoops dojo (As Vic the Brick refers to Staples Center) tonight. With teams as even as these two are you know it's anybody's game, but I have to give a slight edge to the Lakers. Here's why:

1. Home Court Advantage
Yeah, it definitely matters. You know the stats: Home teams have won 13 of the 16 NBA Finals Game 7's and the Lakers have won 13 of their last 14 home playoff games. Of course their lone loss was in Game 2 of this very series to Boston and the Celtics comprise 2 of the 3 road teams to win a Game 7 in the Finals (One of those coming against the Lakers). Even if you think it doesn't mean much, it is definitely an advantage. Never underestimate the advantage you get from playing in familiar surroundings with familiar sightlines on familiar rims. If you've played basketball you know it's easier shooting on a basket you're very familiar with. Plus having 20,000 people at your back is way better than having 20,000 people rooting heavily against you. You think Lamar Odom isn't going to be more comfortable shooting free throws in LA where the crowd won't be wearing Khloe Kardashian masks and chanting "Ug-ly Sis-ter" at him? Role players always play better at home/worse on the road so the Lakers' bench has a chance to keep pace if not out play Boston's bench as they did in Game 6. Then of course, there's the officiating. Those "home cooking" calls as they say. Always a good thing to have the possibility of those going for you as well. If we can get a good crowd of REAL Lakers fans at the game we can harass the refs into making a couple borderline calls go our way. (Whoops, I started saying "we". I lasted one paragraph longer than I thought though. Hold on, let me try and get my objectivity back.)

2. Recent Historical Evidence
In my opinion, one of the most telling signs of a playoff team's true mettle is their performance in closeout games. When you are on the verge of closing out your opponent, you know they are gonna come out swinging and play with that extra energy and intensity that desperation brings out. They've got their backs against the wall fighting for their basketball lives. You know you'll be going against the best your opponent has to offer. So have these teams fared against the best their opponents have had to offer? Since the start of the 2008 playoffs (I think this is a relevant marker because both teams are essentially unchanged since this time), the Celtics are a lackluster 8-10 in closeout games, with a paltry 0-8 record on the road in such situations, including the last game. The Lakers, meanwhile, are a rock solid 10-1 trying to close teams out, winning all 3 of their home closeout games. Now, what does this mean? I'm not saying it guarantees a Lakers victory tonight, but I do think it's a bit of a telltale sign for the mental make-up of each team. The Celtics have let teams hang around and get back into series. Luckily for them it has only cost them in one series (Up 3-2 against Orlando last year). They have done an especially poor job of taking out teams when they are on the road as evidenced by their 0-8 road record in closeout games. On the other hand, the Lakers have shown that when facing their opponents' best they are still capable of raising their game another level and going for the kill. What's especially impressive is how great they have been on the road in those games (7-1) which gives me hope that they'll be even sharper and more on their game playing in the comfort of their own gym. I think these records give us some insight into the mental fortitude of each of these teams and that is going to be a huge factor in the outcome of tonight's game.

3. The Best Player on the Best Team with the Best Coach
If there is one player in the NBA who I'd trust to win me one game with everything on the line, it's Kobe Bryant. Not that he has a spotless record in these types of situations, but you know he's gonna give everything he has, he's going to play harder than anyone else on the court, and that he's the best player on the court. That's the first guy I'd take on my team in this scenario. A lot of Kobe's legacy is on the line here tonight. If he can win his 5th championship ring (2nd without Shaq) and 2nd Finals MVP by bringing his team back from a 3-2 Finals deficit against his most hated rivals, then he vaults into the top 7 or 8 greatest players of all time. If he comes up short that will be the third time in 7 tries that he's failed in the Finals, 0 for 2 against the Celtics, and he will be remembered for failing to hold down home court in a Game 7 in which he was the best player on the floor. For a guy who cares more about his image/legacy/numbers/historical perception than almost anyone else in the league, this game becomes even bigger.
I do believe that the Lakers are the better team. Some say Phil Jackson is getting outcoached in this series, but you can't argue with 10 titles and a 47-0 record after winning Game 1 of a series. He's the master motivator and you know he'll have the Lakers prepared regardless of his in-game tactics. Like he said after Game 6, the players know what they have to do. It's all about mental preparation and execution. The loss of Kendrick Perkins is a huge blow to the Celtics. He's one of the most underrated 1-on-1 interior defenders in the league, and is one of their leading rebounders and shot-blockers. He will be missed, even with an ailing Andrew Bynum on the Lakers side. Much of Boston's burden now falls on the broad shoulders of Big Baby Davis. He's played well off the bench so far, but he's one of those energy guys who's at their optimal level when playing 15-20 minutes at maximum energy. Over the course of 25-30 minutes he'll have to pace himself and drop his activity level (And therefore most of his effectiveness) or burn himself out early and contribute nothing down the stretch. Gasol and Odom can grab rebounds right over the top of him, even if he has good position. I said before the Finals started that if the Lakers control the boards they will win the series, and so far the team that has won the rebounding margin has been victorious in each of the 6 games. I believe the Lakers take care of the boards tonight. There will be another parade in LA this year. See you on Figueroa.

Colonial Clash

In case you haven't noticed, World Cup 2010 is underway in South Africa, and the opening game for Group C was a dream matchup between the England British of the United Kingdom and the good ol' USA. Now, if you ask me (Not that you would but let's pretend you did), I say that ESPN made a little arrangement with FIFA to ensure that this was the case. Just follow me here. ESPN has been trying to promote soccer in this country and trying create a market for it that can give them a new revenue stream, but of course no one is interested in the inferior MLS. They've noticed that since the World Cup was held in the U.S. in 1994, Americans have taken a little more interest in that particular event, especially after the Yanks' surprise quarterfinal run in the 2002 Cup. The U.S. team has some talent now and are have most of the pundits picking them to make it out of the group stage again, piquing the interest of more casual American sports fans. ESPN decided to capitalize on these circumstances by deciding to blow the hell out of promoting the World Cup all year, and what promotion could get more Americans interested than an opening match (on a weekend afternoon no less) against the Brits? There's nothing Americans love more than beating the British (see Revolutionary War, circa 1776). They knew that they could get big numbers for that particular game in that particular time slot, and then they'd have the casual fans for the duration of the month, grow the soccer market, and get more people to watch their MLS games, which of course means that they get paid. Just promise FIFA the American market and they're on board too. So that's my theory...now on to the match!

It was a great result for the Americans. The English side was strongly favored going in, and really the USA couldn't hope for better than a draw. Grabbing a point against their toughest group stage opponent was big, and should give them confidence going forward as well as alleviate some of the pressure in their upcoming matches. The game itself was hard-fought on both sides, and although the USA's goal was a bit of a fluke (Thank you Robert "Butterfingers" Green), but I thought they played very well. England started out great, striking quickly in the 4th or 5th minute and dominating the ball for the first third of the match. After Clint Dempsey's equalizer for the Americans later in the first half, however, it seemed to take the wind out of England's sails a bit while giving the USA a jolt. What was particularly reassuring was the American defense, the squad's biggest question mark coming in. They did a great job of shutting down England's fantastic striker, and one of the top 5 players in the world, in Wayne Rooney, who got very few chances and could not do anything with them. Not that Rooney played badly, he certainly played hard and tried to make something out of nothing numerous times,especially in the second half when he really picked up his energy level, but I think the Americans did really well not to give Rooney any easy scoring opportunities.

For the American side, their biggest star Landon Donovan was shut down as well, but to an even greater extent than Rooney. I didn't even really notice Donovan out there, and I don't remember his name being called even once the entire second half. Even after switching sides with Dempsey to get away from England's Ashley Cole, Donovan had zero impact on the game. The USA normally goes as Donovan goes, so they need him to really pick it up moving forward. Oguchi Onyewu played strong in the middle and was fit enough to go the full 90 minutes for the USA, something they're really going to need if they want to advance deep into this tournament. Forward Jozy Altidore, whom the Americans really need to be a scoring threat, played well and had a great chance to put the USA ahead on a nice run in the second half when his shot deflected off the keeper's fingertips and off the goalpost. But the man of the match was definitely USA goalkeeper Tim Howard. He made a handful of impressive and imperative stops in the second half, as well as coming out of net to make other crucial plays, including the one he got hurt on. He's recognized as one of the best keepers in the world and the USA really needs him to be healthy if they want to do damage in the World Cup.

After Slovenia's 1-0 victory today over Algeria, England and the USA are tied for second in Group C with 1 point apiece. England will be heavily favored against each of their remaining opponents so assuming they win both games that means the Americans have to at least win one to advance out of group play (Or draw both and put their faith in the tiebreaker, but soccer's tiebreaker rules are notoriously sketchy). After watching them go toe-to-toe with one of the top teams in the tournament, I believe the USA is in great position to do just that. As long as they get Landon Donovan going, and sharpen up their attack to support their star keeper, the Americans should advance to at least the second round.

King Dethroned?

For years everyone has made excuses for LeBron's lack of postseason success. "He's too young." "He hasn't learned how to win yet." "He has no supporting cast." "It took Jordan a while to win one." Well it's time to stop babying the "King" and let him take some flak for what has been one of the most epic failures in NBA history. You think epic is too strong a word? Consider that the Cavaliers just became the first team in NBA history in back-to-back seasons to:
- Win 60+ games
- Have the best record in the league
- Get home court throughout the playoffs
- Have the best player in the league
- Have the reigning MVP
- AND NOT WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!

In fact, the Cavs didn't even make it to the NBA Finals once over that 2 year stretch! They won a grand total of ONE game after the conference semis in those two seasons. That has to be the biggest underachievement by a team/superduperstar in the history of the league.

Since LeBron has come into the league people have been talking about how he has no ceiling as a player. How he can average triple-doubles and win 6-8 titles in a row wherever he plays. It may be time to re-think that philosophy a little bit. Now I don't want to go too far like some have already done and proclaim him a Grade A choking dog a la Dirk Nowitzki (I think he just choked on something while reading this. What? You don't know that he doesn't read this) or that he'll always come up small on the big stage a la Karl Malone. We know he's got more substance than that. We all saw him carry a Cleveland team to the Finals in 2007 that had absolutely NO business being there and single-handedly eviscerate a far superior Pistons team along the way. He's submitted one of the greatest individual playoff performances in history on the road in a crucial conference finals game. He just threw up a 27-19-10 in a desperation closeout game last night (albeit the ugliest 27-19-10 you will ever see). But still...something seems off. There's been one constant on the court for Cleveland during the underachieving LeBron era, and that's LeBron. He's got no excuse for not delivering a championship for his hometown folks at least once in the last two seasons. He's been in the league seven years now. He knows what it takes to win. His front office has spent the money and acquired him the pieces to a championship roster. He knows how to put a team on his back and carry them through. Yet he still inexplicably no-showed a pivotal Game 5 in this past series. He seemed disinterested and distracted, like a guy who knew this was his last game before he skipped town. Maybe LeBron James isn't "The Chosen One" after all.

Will LeBron James never win an NBA championship then? No, I believe he will. I refuse to think that a player of his ability and dominance will never win. He won't be the Malone to Kobe/Durant's Jordan. (Am I giving Kevin Durant too much credit too early? Probably. But I'm completely biased and irrational when it comes to KD). However, it wouldn't shock me if Lebron turns out to be the Shaq to those guys' Duncan. Think about it. Just like Shaq, LeBron seems a little more interested in all the glamor and the lifestyle and playing in a "Big Market" than winning. Just like Shaq, LeBron loves to joke around on and off the court, keep the locker room mood light, and be the center of everyone's attention. Just like Shaq, LeBron gets way too much credit for being funny and a great guy from the media and the fans just because he's The Man. And just like Shaq, LeBron may be on his way to a career that sees him play for more teams than is befitting of an all-time great player. On the other hand, Kobe is renowned for his obsession with winning above all else (Durant has this in him too...or maybe that's just my bias rearing its head again) much like Duncan, at the expense of cultivating a gregarious and engaging personality. Maybe LeBron, like Shaq, will only reach 90% of his potential and win half the titles he was capable of when all is said and done. Maybe what he needs is a young punk with oodles of game and swagger along the lines of Young Kobe to drive him harder in the playoffs push him over the top. I believe a perfect landing spot for LeBron is Chicago, where Derrick Rose has the game, and Joakim Noah has the swagger to provide him with the Young Kobe to his Shaq. And it will be perfect timing as well. Shaq won his Lakers titles in the window between Jordan's Bulls and the peak of Duncan's Spurs. LeBron can start fresh with a new team and start winning in a year or two in between the eventual, inevitable fall of Kobe's Lakers and the rise of Durant's Thunder. Who knows, he may even somehow get Phil Jackson as his coach to lead him to the promised land. However LeBron's career turns out, we may have just witnessed the finishing touches to his brand-new ceiling.

Around the Association

• Biggest deadline deal winners this year? It's gotta be the Cavs and the Mavs hands down. I think the Cavs made the right decision in trading for Antawn Jamison instead of Amar'e Stoudamire. Jamison fits their offense better in terms of having yet another player to spread the floor with and to knock down the open jumpers that LeBron creates. Amar'e, while being a great scorer in his own right, is another guy who will clog the lane for LeBron and really has trouble creating his own offense . Meanwhile Jamison can be a go-to scorer when LeBron is off the floor, something that the Cavs have lacked in the past. With a crunch-time lineup of LeBron, Jamison, Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, and Anderson Varejao the Cavs will surround LeBron with 3 shooters and one pick-and-roll guy to maximize his options when creating for himself and others. It will be impossible to help off of anyone without giving up a shot that Cleveland wants to take. Defensively, that lineup can switch on all screens with their mobile bigs and they now match up well with their biggest playoff nemesis, the Magic, as Jamison can match up against Rashard Lewis......Dallas gets shot of a cancerous Josh Howard and spare parts to get significantly better in the defense/toughness departments. Caron Butler gives them a second effective perimeter defender to throw at Kobe and Melo, while Brendan Haywood can legitimately match up one-on-one against the Lakers' bigs down low. Butler also gives them some scoring punch offensively and is an underrated passer, and now Dallas has the versatility to play multiple styles. They can go big with Kidd-Butler-Marion-Nowitzki-Haywood to match up with Los Angeles or smaller and quicker with Kidd-Terry-Butler-Marion-Nowitzki to match Denver's speed or have the luxury of just playing the hot hand like they did in their comeback win versus the Hawks the other night.....The bottom line is the Cavs cemented themselves as the best team in the East (and quite possibly the league) and the Mavs are now a strong contender for a 2-seed in the West that can push the Lakers with their new-look squad.

• Now that the trade deadline has passed and we can see how teams have lined up their cap room for the free agent bonanza this summer, we're one step closer to seeing how it all plays out. The Knicks have an astonishing 11 contracts coming off the books after this season, so they'll have enough money to max out two players (Or have all their dreams realized by signing three big guns at a discount). For the sake of the Knicks fans out there, I hope they get one or more of the top guys. Their fans have suffered a miserable decade and the only thing keeping them from lighting themselves on fire the last two years has been the promise of luring a couple big fish to the Big Apple. It would be crushing if all the Knicks can do is overpay to keep David Lee (At a higher price than they could have extended him for last year) and to add Rudy Gay, a pair of complementary pieces who'll have New York making first round playoff exits for the next 5 seasons.....As for where LeBron/Wade/Bosh do end up...I have no idea. It really all depends on LeBron. He'll be deciding exactly where he wants to play and the chips will fall from there. Will they pair up to form The Biggest Three? I don't see it. No way top players like them take less money to play together. Money still talks the loudest, especially with a lockout looming and a strong chance that the value of contracts decline post-2010. I really can't imagine LeBron and Wade joining forces. As scary as that tandem sounds, I don't see how a pair of ball-dominating perimeter alpha dogs can get along on the same team. Who dribbles around aimlessly for 18 seconds before barreling to the basket looking to make a play and who stands in the corner watching? You need a Michael and a Scottie, not 2 Michaels. It's always an inside-outside combo that works. Both guys will be pining for Bosh to join them, and whoever loses out on him will immediately begin to court Amar'e or Carlos Boozer to team up with them. The prospect of 3 or 4 franchises instantly rebuilding themselves around a dynamic duo (For instance: LeBron/Bosh, Wade/Stoudamire, Joe Johnson/Boozer, plus Houston rolls out Kevin Martin/Yao Ming for the first time next season) is a truly exciting proposition heading into 2011.

• There continue to be a number of surprising teams around the league this year. The Bobcats, Bucks, Grizzlies, Rockets, and Thunder have all sustained their fast starts and are still in the running for playoff spots. The Bobcats can make their first ever trip to the postseason if they string together a couple of road wins. Gerald Wallace has put up an impressive stat line this year with a 19-11 on close to 49 percent shooting (39 percent on threes), and the acquisition of Stephen Jackson has given them a go-to scorer they can rely on down the stretch. Plus, the Bobs made the sneakiest good trade of the deadline by acquiring Tyrus Thomas from Chicago, who has been providing them with a big spark off the bench since the deal. If only the Bobcats had drafted Brook Lopez instead of D.J. Augustin last season and waited until this year to take a backup point guard (say Ty Lawson or Darren Collison, who were both available to them), all without the Okafor-Chandler swap, this would be a team to be reckoned with for years to come. Imagine a starting lineup of Felton-Jackson-Wallace-Okafor-Lopez with Boris Diaw (aka Lamar Odom Lite), Thomas, and Lawson/Collison off the bench. Hindsight is 20/20.....Much credit has to go to the Bucks, whom I had pegged as the worst team in the league heading into this season. Despite giving away 3 starters from last year's team and seeing Michael Redd's season end prematurely yet again, the Bucks have found a way to play above .500 on the season and position themselves for a playoff berth in the East. Brandon Jennings has cooled off considerably since his sizzling start to the season, but former #1 overall pick Andrew Bogut has quietly put up huge numbers lately, and a trade for John Salmons has given them some more scoring punch to replace Redd. With budding young stars at point guard and center, Milwaukee is only a couple pieces away from being legitimate contenders in the East. Too bad LeBron and Bosh don't want to team up in Milwaukee.....The Grizzlies have one of the best starting lineups in the NBA, with 4 guys who can score in bunches and 2 of the best rebounders in the game. And none of those players includes #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet, who recently became the highest draft pick to ever be demoted to the D-League. It will be interesting to see where restricted free agent Rudy Gay lands this summer. That may determine whether this team was a one-year wonder or if they're headed down the path to future contention.....The Rockets have continued to scrape out wins despite getting nothing from their two franchise cornerstones, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. They made an interesting move at the deadline to ship out McGrady and bring in Kevin Martin. I think it'll help them out a lot. He gives them an excellent perimeter scorer, allows Ariza to become a complementary player once more (a role he perfected in a title run with the Lakers a year ago), and they can surround him with great defensive players to hide his deficiencies on that side of the floor. Houston did have to give up Sixth Man award candidate Carl Landry, but also got back an intriguing prospect in Jordan Hill, plus 2 first round picks and another great defender in Jared Jeffries. Not a bad haul looking to the future.....The Thunder have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this season. Despite their core players all being 23 and under (23 and under!!!), OKC has shown great poise and maturity on their way to a presumed playoff berth in the ultra-competitive West. Kevin Durant has been simply brilliant and I'd have to put him second behind LeBron in the MVP race today. He's just coming off a streak of 29 straight games of 25+ points (That's the longest such streak by any player not named "Michael Jordan" post-Wilt. Side note: It should be documented that I was in attendance for the very first game of the streak in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Clearly my presence inspired him to reach such lofty heights. Okay, I'm done puffing myself up...for now) during which the Thunder jumped to as high as 5th in the Western Conference standings. Oklahoma City plays incredible defense for a team as young as they are, and consistently win games despite having only 2 double-digit scorers aside from KD, and no player other than Durant averaging even 6.2 rebounds a game. You can't help but root for these youngins.

• They're not who we thought they were. Coming into the season it was assumed that 5 teams and only 5 teams had a shot at the championship this year. Those 5 were the Lakers, Cavs, Magic, Celtics, and Spurs. Two of those five may be out of the running now (Especially after the Celts dropped a game to the lowly Nets. Man it felt good to write that last sentence). I've maintained all season that, if healthy, the Celtics had the best shot to win the East and that the Spurs would pose the biggest threat to the Lakers in the West. I'm starting to rethink that one a little bit. The situation for both teams reminds me of the New England Patriots from this past NFL season. I thought all year that the Patriots were still one of the best teams in the league and would challenge for the Super Bowl despite all the warning signs. Finally, just before the playoffs began, I looked at the evidence one last time and decided that this Patriots team was not like those of years past and predicted (Correctly, mind you. I warned you the puffing could come back) that they would lose their first round playoff game at home to the Ravens. Despite making the playoffs and hosting a first round game, the Pats just seemed...off. They racked up the wins and won their division, but they performed poorly against top competition (They went 1-3 against the best 4 teams in the league, meaning teams that reached their respective Conference Championship games), a sign that they did not have the juice to make a deep playoff run. It's becoming the same for the Celtics and Spurs. I have a hard time counting them out because of their profound veteran talent, but the evidence is starting to stack up against them too. Neither one is having as good a season as was expected out of them this year, and neither one owns a top-3 spot in their respective conference standings at the moment. Besides that, both teams, like the Patriots, have struggled against the best teams in the league. Versus teams with the 8 best records in the NBA, Boston is an unsightly 4-13, while San Antonio isn't much better with a 5-11 mark. The Celtics have been playing sub-.500 ball since Christmas, while the Spurs are under .500 since MLK day. The Duncan Dynasty and the Boston Three Party (Scott Van Pelt's nickname, not mine. There's an ESPN commercial to prove it too) may be both reaching their conclusions.
  

NBA 2010 Midseason Review

We're just about halfway through the 2009-2010 NBA season, with most teams hitting the 40 games played mark over the long weekend. Let's take a moment to pause and consider the state of the league as it currently stands. Rankings time!

30. New Jersey Nets (3-37)
I still don't get how a team with as much individual talent as the Nets can't win more than 3 games in 40 tries...especially in the East. I'm still taking the over on 9 wins, but tell me Jay-Z, how do you expect to recruit LeBron to play for this trainwreck???

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (9-33)
This season was clearly doomed from draft day. If new GM David Kahn panic-trades Al Jefferson away (When he's only a year removed from a major knee injury) though, he needs to be relieved of his duties immediately. They do, however, need to bring in someone Big Al can kick it out to regularly. Can anyone on this team make a three?

28. Detroit Pistons (14-26)
The Pistons paid $96 million for the right to acquire Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. They've started a combined 30 games thus far. But you can't put a price on Ben Wallace's rejuvenation right?

27. Golden State Warriors (12-27)
How does Monta Ellis follow a 14-31 performance? If you answered "With a 14-39 performance" you are correct!! Ellis has played all but 6 minutes over his last 4 games. Still regularly playing 45+ minutes a night this deep into the season, is it any wonder that he's an Andris Biedrins-like 11-22 at the line over his last 3? Or 43-110 from the floor over his last 4? Steph Curry has been this year's most underrated rookie though. He's a player.

26. Washington Wizards (14-26)
Washington came into this season loaded with individual talent and some pretty lofty expectations (None more so than mine...whoops). Three months later they're mired in last place in their division (Almost 7 games behind the Bobcats. Ouch.) and they're grossly overpaid/underachieving star player is suspended indefinitely and possibly headed for prison. Time for the Wiz to blow things up and start from scratch. (Please Lord, don't let Antawn Jamison fall in to Cleveland's lap.)

25. Milwaukee Bucks (16-23)
Jennings has been as cold as winter in Milwaukee since that torrid twelve game start, while Redd is gone once again. Bogut has been a rock in the middle though, averaging a 15-10 with 2 blocks. That gives the Bucks a nice point guard-center tandem for their future. It's just too bad there's less than a 0% chance Michael Redd doesn't pick up his $18.3 million dollar player option for next season so they can scoop up a big-time free agent. Man, that warm and fuzzy 8-3 start feels like it came last year or something doesn't it? Oh wait....

24. Philadelphia 76ers (13-27)
You can make an argument that Allen Iverson has turned the Sixers' season around. That argument might not justify his current standing as an All Star game starter though. Iverson's return has seemingly stifled the development of Lou Williams, but Samuel Dalembert has been awakened from the dead. Not even the devastation in his native Haiti has put a stop to the havoc he has been wreaking on the court lately. By the way, I'd vote for Elton Brand's contract for Worst in the League honors.

23. Indiana Pacers (14-27)
The Pacers valiantly survived Granger's injury, yet Indiana's playoff hopes are as slim as ever. Could they blow things up and trade away Troy Murphy or even Granger himself? And what in the world happened to T.J. Ford???

22. Sacramento Kings (15-25)
The slipper has come off of the NBA's early season Cinderella team. Sacto has dropped 9 of 10 even with Kevin Martin back in the lineup. It'll be interesting to see if the Kings hold on to K-Mart or try and flip him for a true point (Jose Calderon anyone?) to let ROY favorite Tyreke Evans run amok at the 2-guard spot.

21. New York Knicks (17-24)
New York has clawed their way back into playoff contention with a 14-10 stretch since that 3-14 takeoff. So far there have been no takers on the Curry/Jeffries contracts. Fans are starting to get restless as it looks less and less likely that LeBron himself (Let alone LeBron and Bosh) will be New York's basketball savior.

20. Chicago Bulls (18-21)
I thought VDN's job was gone for sure after blowing that 35 point lead with 20 minutes left at home to the Kings, but give Chicago credit for continuing to play hard and putting together a nice run that has given them a firm grasp on the East's final playoff spot. Derrick Rose is finally healthy and showing his potential, while Joakim Noah has blossomed into a fine young center. Imagine this team if Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh comes aboard next year. You know everyone in the Windy City does.

19. Los Angeles Clippers (18-22)
Even despite the news that Blake Griffin fell prey to the Clippers Curse and a brutal 40 point road (Can you really call it a road game??) beatdown at the hands of the Lakers, during which they were outscored 73-30 for basically the entire second half, the Clips showed some resiliency by nearly knocking off the Cavs in their next game, and following that game up by taking care of business against the Nets. The Clippers were on the verge of breaking even when they blew that lead against the Grizzlies after being evacuated from the building before they hit a 4 game losing skid, but those 4 games were all played without the services of one Chris Kaman. Yes, that's a big deal.

18. New Orleans Hornets (21-19)
If I had told you before the start of the season that the Hornets would be 2 games over .500 halfway through the season, yet still be in last place in their division, would you have believed me?? Me neither. But even though New Orleans is battling in the toughest division in basketball, they can still somehow sneak into the playoffs. That is, of course, unless they decide to trade away David West or (gulp) Chris Paul to get under the luxury tax line.

17. Miami Heat (21-19)
It makes things easier for Dwyane Wade to suck it up and play when everyone's all a flutter with the theories of LeBron and/or Bosh joining forces with Flash in South Beach next season. (Maybe we would have been better off letting Lamar go to Miami after all.)

16. Toronto Raptors (21-21)
If I were the Raps I'd do a Chris Bosh for Andrew Bynum swap this instant. You can't let Bosh walk away for nothing this summer, and there's no way you can get anything better back in a trade than a 22 year old potential franchise center. Here's the deal. Bosh and Marcus Banks' terrible contract for Bynum, Jordan Farmar, Adam Morrison's expiring contract, and Sasha Vujacic. In addition to a great building block in Bynum (Who pairs perfectly with Andrea Bargnani), Toronto gets back a young point guard who would be much better in their system (And could set up a Calderon trade as well. Remember when I mentioned him for Kevin Martin?) in Farmar, another outside shooter in "The Machine", and Morrison's $5 million expiring contract to free up space going into this summer, plus they save nearly $2 million this year as well. The Raptors can essentially transform themselves into last year's Magic with Bynum as Dwight, Bargnani as Lewis, Hedo as himself, Calderon/Jack/Farmar as Nelson/Alston, DeRozan as Lee, and Vujacic/Belinelli as Pietrus/Redick (Rasho Nesterovic can even be Marcin Gortat). That Orlando team made the Finals last year. Why wouldn't you model yourselves after them?? (By the way, if I were the Lakers, I actually WOULDN'T do this deal. More on that later.)

15. Charlotte Bobcats (20-19)
The Bobcats have been ablaze since the start of the new year, winning 8 of their 9 games thus far in 2010. Stephen Jackson has given Charlotte a go-to guy on offense and Gerald Wallace has sustained his career year thus far. With Boris Diaw showing signs of turning it around and possibly getting Tyson Chandler back healthy soon, the Bobcats could conceivably be the number FIVE seed heading into the playoffs in the East.

14. Utah Jazz (23-18)
Utah has been steadily gaining steam after a rough start. They need to if they want to make the playoffs in an uber-competitive Western conference. The Jazz say for now that they'll keep Boozer for the remainder of the year, but maybe they'd be better off trading him for some much needed wing scoring (Do I hear another potential trade partner for Kevin Martin?). Part of me thinks that the Knicks are making a playoff push solely because Utah owns the rights to New York's 2010 first round draft pick.

13. Houston Rockets (23-18)
The Rockets continue to scratch and claw their way to victory without Yao Ming and likely All Star starter Tracy McGrady (Really NBA fans?? REALLY???) Aaron Brooks deserves some All Star consideration of his own and Carl Landry is a candidate for both Most Improved and Sixth Man awards. Houston is also widely rumored to be in the Chris Bosh sweepstakes, and if they can pull off that deal as well as re-sign Bosh this summer, he would make an intimidating tandem in the frontcourt with Yao to challenge the Lakers.

12. Memphis Grizzlies (22-18)
Call them the anti-Wizards. Memphis has taken their collection of great individual talent and meshed them together to win a lot of basketball games (12 of their last 15). Zach Randolph has been the opposite of his usual cancerous self, Marc Gasol has developed into a great center, and Rudy Gay seems to have picked up where he left off after his promising '08 season. Meanwhile, I've decided that O.J. Mayo can be the next Kobe Bryant. It remains to be seen if he has the insane work ethic and Kobe's overcompetitive gene or killer instinct, but Mayo has the game as well as the physical tools to pull it off. He's already a polished jump shooter with great size and sneaky athleticism, and he has shown flashes of Kobe's defensive prowess. Mayo has grown into Memphis' leader and crunch-time scorer in just his second pro season. Watch out for "The Juice". Or "The Condiment". Or "The Juicy Condiment". Or...okay I'll stop now.

11. Oklahoma City Thunder (23-18)
Remember when I told you that OKC would challenge for a playoff spot this season and the Durantula (I didn't make that one up...but I'm not sure if I like it either) would be in the running for his first scoring title?? Well, thank you very much. Here are the Thunder sitting just a half game out of 6th place in the West and Durant lighting it up for a shade over 29 a game (3rd in the league, and just 1 away from tying LeBron for most consecutive 25 point games before turning 22 at 15 straight). I'm not saying it'll continue for the entire second half too, but what if it's the Thunder that end up with Bosh??

10. Phoenix Suns (24-18)
They're going the wrong way (Just 10-15 since that incredible 14-3 start) and have gone from tops in the West to just a game in front of the 10th place team. Steve Nash is still playing at an MVP level and can somehow set his career high in scoring at age 36, but if things keep going south in the Desert, will it be time to trade Amar'e before he can walk this summer?

9. Portland Trail Blazers (25-17)
You've got to hand it to the Blazers. Even with two-thrids of their team injured (Including their coach) and all but 2 players missing at least 3 games thus far, Portland keeps finding ways to win. Whether it's hot shooting from Martell Webster and Steve Blake, or Brandon Roy taking over games, the Blazers have even survived a disappointing season out of LaMarcus Aldridge to hang on to a top 5 seed out West.

8. Dallas Mavericks (27-14)
Despite another Re-Dirk-ulous season out of Nowitzki, the Mavs find themselves sliding in the standings since being embarrassed by a Pau-less Laker team by 35 a couple weeks ago. Losing to the Lakers at home without Pau and an injured Kobe with the Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back coming off a 20 point loss to San Antonio didn't help matters any. On the bright side, all hate on the Jason Kidd for Devin Harris deal seems dead now, and Dallas is still considered a major player in the Chis Bosh trade proposals.

7. San Antonio Spurs (25-15)
Why have people still not learned their lesson?? You do not write off the Duncan/Popovich Spurs. Ever. Timmy D is putting up his usual 20-10 even at a career low minutes pace, while the Spurs' depth has turned into a real force with DaJuan Blair, George Hill, and Roger Mason leading the highest scoring bench in the league. I still think they're the biggest challengers to the Lakers' throne in the West.

6. Orlando Magic (26-15)
What happened to that 17-4 start? Orlando is a paltry 9-11 since, with Dwight Howard seemingly less involved in the offense in every game that goes by. How many more 10-30 games does Vince Carter need to have before the Magic pound it inside to free up their shooters again? It seems like Carter is the one player on this team Stan Van hasn't publicly thrown under the bus yet.

5. Atlanta Hawks (26-14)
Crawford has been a god-send off the bench for the Hawks, covering up Mike Bibby's age and the rest of a mediocre bench. Josh Smith and Al Horford are playing at maximum efficiency and Joe Johnson finally doesn't have to run out of gas by February. The Hawks are praying for a 2/3 seed and a shot at the Celtics in the second round (They're 3-0 against Boston this year.)

4. Denver Nuggets (26-14)
With Melo and Billups back, the Nuggs are set on reclaiming their #2 status in the West. What will get them to #1 though? I say it's more frontcourt help to counter the Lakers' size. Until they address that issue, I don't even see them making it past the Spurs in the postseason, no matter how well Anthony is playing. Props on the Aaron Afflalo signing though.

3. Boston Celtics (27-12)
I know the Celts have struggled mightily as of late, but let's be honest. They're just biding their time until all their big guns are healthy and really they could care less before the playoffs. With Rondo knocking on the door of the Paul/Nash/Williams point guard penthouse, Boston may still be the best team in the entire league when healthy. Kendrick Perkins is quietly having a breakout season and we've already seen what that defense can do with all the pieces in place. If only Rasheed Wallace was anywhere close to in-shape...

2. Los Angeles Lakers (32-9)
Even with the best record in the league, they have to be considered second to Cleveland at this point after the Cavs beat them on Chrismas in L.A. by 15 with Pau playing. Back to the Bynum/Bosh scenario. Here's why I hesitate to pull the trigger if I'm the Lakers. Giving up Bynum makes the Lakers too finesse. They lose their biggest advantage over their competition. We saw what the Celtics did to a soft Lakers squad two years ago. Losing some toughness would not only make them susceptible to Boston again, but also to San Antonio and even Denver and Dallas in the West. Bosh and Gasol are almost the same player. Pau is clearly higher on the pecking order than Bynum, but if Bosh joins the team, who becomes the #2 option? How does that affect the other player? Adding Bosh essentially takes Lamar Odom entirely out of the equation. With Bynum, Odom knows he'll be called on for about 30 minutes a game plus crunch-time duties. But how do you justify playing him over Bosh? Bringing him in could kill Odom's value, and remember he just signed a long-term deal last summer. Bosh doesn't play much defense or protect the rim, which is Bynum's biggest contribution to the squad and something that makes the Lakers nearly unbeatable when they have it. Finally, there's the AM-PM theory (Too Much Good Stuff). It killed the Lakers in 2004 against the Pistons. Something similar may happen against Boston or Cleveland in this year's Finals. The Lakers have a good thing going right now. There's no reason to tinker with it, even if you want to prevent a rival team from acquiring Bosh.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (32-11)
Two words: LeBron James. 'Nuff said. But seriously, Cleveland is clicking just like they did last season. They looked pretty near unbeatable against the Lakers on Christmas. If they can flip Shaq or Z for a guy like Antawn Jamison or Troy Murphy, they may not only win the title this year, but hang on to LeBron and be in position to win every year in the near future. This ranking will be put to the test right away as the Lakers come to town starting their marathon 8 game road trip this Thursday in Cleveland.

All Star Weekend
All Star Weekend is right up there as one of my favorite weekends of the year. Just sit back and be entertained by basketball all weekend. But to be honest, it needs to be spruced up a little bit. Here's what needs to happen.

Rookie Challenge
Does anyone even watch this game? I hope they do because it's actually pretty entertaining. It's not always indicative of a player's abilities (I remember Daniel Gibson, Kyle Korver, and Wally Sczerbiak lighting it up in this game), though some rising stars really come out in this game (Amar'e Stoudamire, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant). Here are my picks for the teams this year:

Rookies
Starters:
G- Brandon Jennings, Bucks
G- Tyreke Evans, Kings
G/F- James Harden, Thunder
F- Omri Casspi, Kings
C- DaJuan Blair, Spurs
Reserves:
G- Stephen Curry, Warriors
G- Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves
G- Ty Lawson, Nuggets
F- Taj Gibson, Bulls

Sophomores
Starters:
G- Derrick Rose, Bulls
G- O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies
F- Michael Beasley, Heat
F- Kevin Love, Timberwolves
C- Brook Lopez, Nets
Reserves:
G- Russell Westbrook, Thunder
G- Eric Gordon, Clippers
F- Danilo Gallinari, Knicks
C- Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

H-O-R-S-E
I loved that they put this contest in All Star Weekend. Too bad nobody saw it last year, when after a little warming up Kevin Durant put on a show. I say take out the stupid Shooting Stars contest and kick off Saturday Night with this event. Here are the contestants (I'm upping it to 4):

-Kevin Durant, Thunder
-Kobe Bryant, Lakers
-Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
-LeBron James, Cavaliers

Durant is back to defend his crown, and the other guys are all big time shotmakers. You pull in the audience from the get-go with your superstars who will be in a casual, fun setting and should definitely all be miked up. Maybe LeBron won't back out of this event.

Skills Challenge
I like it. It stays. Here's who's in:

-Derrick Rose, Bulls
-Brandon Jennings, Bucks
-Russell Westbrook, Thunder
-Monta Ellis, Warriors

Does it get any quicker and more athletic than that??

Three Point Shootout
I say let's shake it up. You have individual and team components. For the individual, you pick 4 guys, it's one round. Standard rules, with money balls, with one wrinkle. You get bonus points for finishing faster. One extra point for each 2 seconds you come in under time. This speeds up the individual part of the competition so we can get to the team component, as well as adds intrigue to the event and highlighting the art of the quick release. The participants:

-Steve Nash, Suns
-Ray Allen, Celtics
-Danilo Gallinari, Knicks
-Kevin Martin, Kings

For the team component it goes like this. We take the top 4 most prolific three point shooting teams. This is determined by a simple formula. Add up the ranks of each team for threes made and attempted per game, as well as three point percentage. The 4 lowest scores are our teams. This year those teams would be:

1. Phoenix Suns (scored an 8)
2. Orlando Magic (scored a 9)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (scored a 19)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (scored a 20)

It goes 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3, then the winners meet in the finals. One team shoots at each basket at the same time to speed things up. Each team gets 4 shooters, and they shoot just one after the other as each one finishes. We have a running clock of 3 minutes (averages 45 seconds per shooter) which adds an interesting time component and teams will have to strategize as to when to put each shooter, which could intrigue fans as they see who each team thinks is a better shooter than whom. Here's what I think the rosters would be (Not necessarily in that order):

Suns- Nash, Dudley, Richardson, Frye
Magic- Lewis, Redick, Pietrus, Nelson
Bucks- Delfino, Ilyasova, Jennings, Ridnour
Cavaliers- Williams, Parker, Gibson, West

In the event of a tie, each team will send out one player to shoot from any rack he wants to with a 12 second time limit and the a 1 point bonus for each second under he finishes. With this system we determine who best individual shooter is AND who the best shooting team is...arguably.

Slam Dunk Contest
The Dunk Contest is way too long these days. It's more anticipation than satisfaction. Time to rectify that. It's simple: 2 rounds, 1 dunk each in the first round, 2 dunks each in the finals. If you miss a dunk, you have one make-up per attempt. There's a 24 second clock in which you have to attempt a dunk or it counts as a 0. For the participants, you get two established players (One of which should be a consensus top 15 guy, a superstar to keep the audience tuned in) and two young guns who will put the veterans' pride at stake while also showcasing their skills. Here's who I would have this year:

-LeBron James, Cavaliers (Here's your top 15 guy/established player)
-Gerald Wallace, Bobcats (Your other established player)
-Shannon Brown, Lakers (One young guy)
-DeMar DeRozan, Raptors (Other young guy)

So it's basically the NBA got the field right, with the exception of LeBron over Nate Robinson who I hope everyone is tired of. I know I am. You've got to throw some money into this thing to make the top players go for it. And absolutely no dunk-ins. We need less Dunk Contest, not more of it.

All Star Game
I wouldn't change anything about the actual format of the game, but the balloting needs to change. First of all, you can't put anyone on the ballot who you know is going to miss extended time before the season starts, and if they miss extended time during the season you also take them off the ballot (The Tracy McGrady Rule). You put every relevant guy on the ballot regardless of who else on his team plays that position (The Chris Kaman rule). You also relax the position eligibility. You give people the right to choose what slot they want to put a player in if he can play at guard or forward or forward or center (The Tim Duncan Rule). Under those conditions, here are my teams:

East
Starters:
G- Allen Iverson, Sixers (Just kidding...calm down everyone. This spot really goes to Rajon Rondo)
G- Dwyane Wade, Heat
F- LeBron James, Cavaliers
F- Chris Bosh, Raptors
C- Dwight Howard, Magic
Reserves:
G- Mo Williams, Cavaliers
G- Joe Johnson, Hawks
F- Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
F- Josh Smith, Hawks
C- David Lee, Knicks
Wild Cards:
G/F: Paul Pierce, Celtics
F- Kevin Garnett, Celtics

West:
Starters:
G- Steve Nash, Suns
G- Kobe Bryant, Lakers
F- Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
F- Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
C- Tim Duncan, Spurs
Reserves:
G- Chris Paul, Hornets
G- Brandon Roy, Blazers
F- Kevin Durant, Thunder
F- Pau Gasol, Lakers
C- Chris Kaman, Clippers
Wild Cards:
G- Deron Williams, Jazz
F- Zach Randolph, Grizzlies (I can't believe it either)

Midseason Awards
Rookie- Tyreke Evans, G, Kings: 20.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.5 SPG
Coach- Lionel Hollins, Grizzlies: 22-18 record with the GRIZZLIES!!!
Most Improved- Carl Landry, F, Rockets: 16.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 56% FG, 85% FT
Sixth Man- Jamal Crawford, G, Hawks: 30.7 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 2.7 APG, 84%FT
Defensive- Marcus Camby, C, Clippers: 31.5 MPG, 11.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 2.1 BPG
MVP- LeBron James, F, Cavaliers: 29.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG

Finals Prediction
Still got the Lakers over the Celtics, though the Cavs may change that soon. Enjoy the second half of the season everybody!