Tuesday, June 29, 2010

2010 NBA Free Agent Frenzy

It's finally here. We've been waiting for it, talking about it, salivating over it for close to two years now. July 1, 2010. The start of the most anticipated and ballyhooed free agency period in the history of the NBA. After all, two of the top three and seven of the (arguably) top fifteen players in the league have the opportunity to change the fortunes of a few lucky franchises. No one can predict how the league will look next year. Will the stars spread themselves out looking for max contracts or will a few superstars take a pay cut to join forces and create a superteam? Right now the Lakers have no clear oppposition as favorites to win next year's championship. In a few days, however, they might not even be considered among the top 2 or 3 teams in the NBA. Everything hinges upon the decision of one man: LeBron James.

First of all, I must say I feel really sorry for whoever loses out on the LeBron sweepstakes, particularly for the Knicks and Nets because they have spent the last two years tanking it and clearing cap space to welcome LeBron and whichever superstar he chooses to bring along to the New York area. As signs keep pointing to LeBron not choosing the Big Apple, the Knicks have to move on to Plan B, which may be to reunite the 2005 Suns by signing Amar'e Stoudamire and Joe Johnson to add to former Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni (I hear Bo Outlaw and Maciej Lampe are looking for work too). Add that to the below average group already in place and you get a 45 win team that cannot make it past the conference semis at best. In that case I think New York's 37 year championship drought may last a while longer. The Nets are slightly better off if they can't land LeBron (I know that sounds crazy considering they lost 70 games last year) but they have a much better young core in place than the Knicks do (Adding Derrick Favors via this year's draft to Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and co.) plus they have a mad Russian billionaire taking over their team ready to throw his money at anything that moves. In fact if the Nets don't end up with LeBron, they're actually in a good position to grow with their young talent by giving Rudy Gay less than the max and maybe trying to swing a deal for Chis Paul.

If LeBron doesn't decide to build his global icon status in Manhattan, where would he go then? The most logical destination for him would actually be the Clippers in my opinion. They already have an impressive collection of talent and happen to lack a small forward and a true superstar to push them over the top (Two areas that LeBron has covered...except maybe the whole push them over the top thing. After all, he's won as many NBA Finals games as I have in his career. Sorry, had to get that remark in there.). Los Angeles would be a fantastic base to achieve his global icon dreams with oodles of worldwide exposure opportunities in Hollywood as well as plenty of trendy celebrities to associate with. He could lead a glamorous life while playing for a surprisingly good team in a great city. There's just one problem; it's the Clippers. Would he dare risk the Clipper Curse and blowing out his knee in his first game? Would he want to play for an owner who has run the worst franchise in sports for the last three decades? Would he want to play second fiddle to Kobe and the Lakers in the same city and take even more criticism for paling in comparison to the Black Mamba? If LeBron is as savvy as everyone says he is, the answer has to be no, and that's a real shame for a team poised to make some noise.

If not the Clippers, it's got to be Miami right? After all, LeBron supposedly got together with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to discuss the move last weekend. Wade is certainly staying and Bosh looks highly likely to join him. Adding LeBron would produce the scariest threesome the league has seen in a quarter century. When Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce in Boston 3 summers ago, the Celtics won a title immediately. This proposed new Big Three is even better than that one (on paper anyways) and would certainly attract aging veterans willing to take a pay cut in exchange for a ring. But I just can't see that combination actually coming together on the court. I can't picture LeBron and Wade working together cohesively for an entire NBA schedule. Some make the argument that Wade is a poor man's Jordan and LeBron is a rich man's Pippen, but while that may be true in terms of their games, it isn't how they've played. In particular, LeBron hasn't been brought up that way. He has always been THE MAN on every team he's ever played on. He came into the league with more hype than any other player in the history of the NBA. He's been carrying the Cavs by himself for the past seven years. He's been designated by the majority of the basketball world to be the best player in the game today. All that goes out the window if he skips to South Beach. LeBron would be admitting, at the tender age of 25, before he's even in his prime years, that he's a failure. He couldn't win a title so he went to Miami to ride Wade's coattails to a championship. Even if that's not the case, it will be the perception. The Heat is Wade's team. Miami is his city. He's the one who has gotten it done in the postseason before, the one who already has some playoff hardware to his name (a championship ring and a Finals MVP to be exact). And besides Wade, how much of the credit will Pat Riley take? If Riles and Wade get all the props for delivering LeBron his ring, where does that leave his legacy? LeBron was supposed to be on track to be one of the 10 or even 5 best players who ever lived when all was said and done. If this is the only way he can win, can he really crack the top 10 or even top 12 ever? Doesn't Wade have to leapfrog him at least in terms of who's better in today's game, if not historically? At the end of quarters and games who gets the ball and who stands in the corner and watches? Global icons can't be the second banana to their own colleagues. I don't believe LeBron's ego can let him accept this fate. Plus, you can't convince me that three men in their mid-to-late twenties would forgo 6-8 million dollars each to play with each other. Miami sounds too good to be true.

That leaves one destination: Chicago, the city that Jordan made. We already know that LeBron is changing his number from MJ's 23 to (Bill Russell's) 6. The Bulls do already have a stud point guard in place with Derrick Rose, as well as a great defense/energy center in Joakim Noah. After clearing Kirk Hinrich's contract, the Bulls have cap space enough for two max deals. If I were LeBron, I'd take one of those slots and try my best to convince Dirk Nowtizki to take the other one. I don't understand why everyone is so keen on pairing LeBron and Wade with Chris Bosh, when Dirk is the next best free agent available. He'd overtake Pau Gasol as the best sidekick in the league. Like Pau, he wasn't quite good enough to win a title as the best guy, and repeatedly underachieved in the postseason. He's an aging veteran who may see this as his last chance for a big payday and to position himself for a big-time role on a title-winning team, and Dallas does not have what it takes for him to get it done. Even considering his age and considerable minutes log, I think he has the type of game that will keep him in the league longer than people think (a less-than-physical specimen who plays on one side of the floor and has an easy, unguardable offensive weapon...think Kareem if he was 5 inches shorter and could shoot threes and was German). He provides LeBron with something he could really use; a reliable number two option who's good for 24 points a night without even really trying who's used to taking (and making) clutch shots down the stretches of big games. Plus he's one the top 2 or 3 guys in the league in terms of icing games at the free throw line, another thing that LeBron struggles with. He doesn't even need the ball that much to be effective.They're perfect complements to each other. LeBron and Rose can dominate the ball and create for Dirk for the whole game, and down the stretch Dirk can pick up LeBron and help close out games if James struggling or doesn't have the energy to go 1-on-5 anymore. And with James and Noah as his frontline mates, Dirk's defensive inabilities can be largely masked. All the Bulls have to do is add a couple shooters to the roster (Ray Allen, Mike Miller, JJ Redick, and Raja Bell are all available at the moment) and perhaps trade Luol Deng for some extra depth and other assets. Now that's a championship caliber team. People may argue that LeBron wouldn't want to play in Jordan's shadow in the Windy City, but let me pose this question: Has playing for the Lakers after all the greats who have donned the championship purple and gold (Magic, Kareem, West, Wilt, Elgin, Shaq just to name a few) hurt Kobe Bryant's legacy much?

Then again, LeBron can always decide to stay in Cleveland. He is a hometown hero there, and knows the city's tortured sports history well. It may just be too hard for him to walk away and leave his own people in the dumps like that. Maybe he refuses to be perceived as a failure for running away to another team. After all, the best of the best (for the most part) got it done with one team and one team only (Jordan, Russell, Magic, Bird, Duncan, Kobe). The Cavs did win 60-plus games each of the last 2 seasons and finished both times with the best regular season record in the league. Oddly enough, people are quick to dismiss the team as legitimate championship contenders now. It's funny how more people picked them to win the title than any other team each of the last 2 years. The Mo Williams and Shaq and Antawn Jamison acquisitions were all deemed the one that put Cleveland over the top, but now all anyone says is that LeBron has no help. Make up your minds people. And he can still get help. Shaq's $20 million contract is now off the books. Why not take that money and sign Chris Bosh? Or sign David Lee and Ray Allen? Why does LeBron have to leave in order to get the help he needs? If you wanted to win a title wouldn't you agree to go to the team with the supposed best player in the league? The Cavs have shown their willingness to spend money in order to appease LeBron and improve the team as much as possible. To me this seems like a prime opportunity to sign someone that LeBron really wants. Think you made a mistake by trading for Jamison instead of Amar'e last year? Well now you can go sign him yourself. Let LeBron play GM like he wants to and choose the superstar or pair of stars he wants to play with so Cleveland can go get them. Not to mention they own LeBron's Bird rights and can pay him more money with an extra year as well. With up to 30 million additional dollars in his account, LeBron can keep trying to bring his hometown some much deserved championship glory.

So where will everyone end up? I have no idea. It all depends on LeBron. He's the first domino to fall and I'm not even sure he's made up his mind yet. What I do know is that this will be the most fascinating free agency period I've ever witnessed (no pun intended...okay, it was intended). Just for fun, here are my predictions for where the top free agents end up:

Rudy Gay- New Jersey Nets
David Lee- Phoenix Suns
Carlos Boozer- Miami Heat
Ray Allen- Chicago Bulls
Paul Pierce- Boston Celtics
Joe Johnson- New York Knicks
Amar'e Stoudamire- Miami Heat
Chris Bosh- Chicago Bulls
Dirk Nowitzki- Dallas Mavericks
Dwyane Wade- Miami Heat
LeBron James- Los Angeles Clippers....(no, just kidding)....Chicago Bulls

Let the free agent frenzy begin!


Wednesday, June 16, 2010

2010 NBA Finals: Game 7 Preview

On the radio they're calling it "the biggest day in the history of LA". Not just for basketball in LA, not just for sports in LA, but for anything in LA. EVER. Is that hyperbole? Ask anyone what comes to mind when they think of LA and the Lakers are almost always one of the 3 foremost things associated with the city. So yeah, it may very well be that big. The hometown hero Lakers against the hated Celtics in a Game 7 to decide the fate of another championship. It's all on the line at the downtown hoops dojo (As Vic the Brick refers to Staples Center) tonight. With teams as even as these two are you know it's anybody's game, but I have to give a slight edge to the Lakers. Here's why:

1. Home Court Advantage
Yeah, it definitely matters. You know the stats: Home teams have won 13 of the 16 NBA Finals Game 7's and the Lakers have won 13 of their last 14 home playoff games. Of course their lone loss was in Game 2 of this very series to Boston and the Celtics comprise 2 of the 3 road teams to win a Game 7 in the Finals (One of those coming against the Lakers). Even if you think it doesn't mean much, it is definitely an advantage. Never underestimate the advantage you get from playing in familiar surroundings with familiar sightlines on familiar rims. If you've played basketball you know it's easier shooting on a basket you're very familiar with. Plus having 20,000 people at your back is way better than having 20,000 people rooting heavily against you. You think Lamar Odom isn't going to be more comfortable shooting free throws in LA where the crowd won't be wearing Khloe Kardashian masks and chanting "Ug-ly Sis-ter" at him? Role players always play better at home/worse on the road so the Lakers' bench has a chance to keep pace if not out play Boston's bench as they did in Game 6. Then of course, there's the officiating. Those "home cooking" calls as they say. Always a good thing to have the possibility of those going for you as well. If we can get a good crowd of REAL Lakers fans at the game we can harass the refs into making a couple borderline calls go our way. (Whoops, I started saying "we". I lasted one paragraph longer than I thought though. Hold on, let me try and get my objectivity back.)

2. Recent Historical Evidence
In my opinion, one of the most telling signs of a playoff team's true mettle is their performance in closeout games. When you are on the verge of closing out your opponent, you know they are gonna come out swinging and play with that extra energy and intensity that desperation brings out. They've got their backs against the wall fighting for their basketball lives. You know you'll be going against the best your opponent has to offer. So have these teams fared against the best their opponents have had to offer? Since the start of the 2008 playoffs (I think this is a relevant marker because both teams are essentially unchanged since this time), the Celtics are a lackluster 8-10 in closeout games, with a paltry 0-8 record on the road in such situations, including the last game. The Lakers, meanwhile, are a rock solid 10-1 trying to close teams out, winning all 3 of their home closeout games. Now, what does this mean? I'm not saying it guarantees a Lakers victory tonight, but I do think it's a bit of a telltale sign for the mental make-up of each team. The Celtics have let teams hang around and get back into series. Luckily for them it has only cost them in one series (Up 3-2 against Orlando last year). They have done an especially poor job of taking out teams when they are on the road as evidenced by their 0-8 road record in closeout games. On the other hand, the Lakers have shown that when facing their opponents' best they are still capable of raising their game another level and going for the kill. What's especially impressive is how great they have been on the road in those games (7-1) which gives me hope that they'll be even sharper and more on their game playing in the comfort of their own gym. I think these records give us some insight into the mental fortitude of each of these teams and that is going to be a huge factor in the outcome of tonight's game.

3. The Best Player on the Best Team with the Best Coach
If there is one player in the NBA who I'd trust to win me one game with everything on the line, it's Kobe Bryant. Not that he has a spotless record in these types of situations, but you know he's gonna give everything he has, he's going to play harder than anyone else on the court, and that he's the best player on the court. That's the first guy I'd take on my team in this scenario. A lot of Kobe's legacy is on the line here tonight. If he can win his 5th championship ring (2nd without Shaq) and 2nd Finals MVP by bringing his team back from a 3-2 Finals deficit against his most hated rivals, then he vaults into the top 7 or 8 greatest players of all time. If he comes up short that will be the third time in 7 tries that he's failed in the Finals, 0 for 2 against the Celtics, and he will be remembered for failing to hold down home court in a Game 7 in which he was the best player on the floor. For a guy who cares more about his image/legacy/numbers/historical perception than almost anyone else in the league, this game becomes even bigger.
I do believe that the Lakers are the better team. Some say Phil Jackson is getting outcoached in this series, but you can't argue with 10 titles and a 47-0 record after winning Game 1 of a series. He's the master motivator and you know he'll have the Lakers prepared regardless of his in-game tactics. Like he said after Game 6, the players know what they have to do. It's all about mental preparation and execution. The loss of Kendrick Perkins is a huge blow to the Celtics. He's one of the most underrated 1-on-1 interior defenders in the league, and is one of their leading rebounders and shot-blockers. He will be missed, even with an ailing Andrew Bynum on the Lakers side. Much of Boston's burden now falls on the broad shoulders of Big Baby Davis. He's played well off the bench so far, but he's one of those energy guys who's at their optimal level when playing 15-20 minutes at maximum energy. Over the course of 25-30 minutes he'll have to pace himself and drop his activity level (And therefore most of his effectiveness) or burn himself out early and contribute nothing down the stretch. Gasol and Odom can grab rebounds right over the top of him, even if he has good position. I said before the Finals started that if the Lakers control the boards they will win the series, and so far the team that has won the rebounding margin has been victorious in each of the 6 games. I believe the Lakers take care of the boards tonight. There will be another parade in LA this year. See you on Figueroa.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Colonial Clash

In case you haven't noticed, World Cup 2010 is underway in South Africa, and the opening game for Group C was a dream matchup between the England British of the United Kingdom and the good ol' USA. Now, if you ask me (Not that you would but let's pretend you did), I say that ESPN made a little arrangement with FIFA to ensure that this was the case. Just follow me here. ESPN has been trying to promote soccer in this country and trying create a market for it that can give them a new revenue stream, but of course no one is interested in the inferior MLS. They've noticed that since the World Cup was held in the U.S. in 1994, Americans have taken a little more interest in that particular event, especially after the Yanks' surprise quarterfinal run in the 2002 Cup. The U.S. team has some talent now and are have most of the pundits picking them to make it out of the group stage again, piquing the interest of more casual American sports fans. ESPN decided to capitalize on these circumstances by deciding to blow the hell out of promoting the World Cup all year, and what promotion could get more Americans interested than an opening match (on a weekend afternoon no less) against the Brits? There's nothing Americans love more than beating the British (see Revolutionary War, circa 1776). They knew that they could get big numbers for that particular game in that particular time slot, and then they'd have the casual fans for the duration of the month, grow the soccer market, and get more people to watch their MLS games, which of course means that they get paid. Just promise FIFA the American market and they're on board too. So that's my theory...now on to the match!

It was a great result for the Americans. The English side was strongly favored going in, and really the USA couldn't hope for better than a draw. Grabbing a point against their toughest group stage opponent was big, and should give them confidence going forward as well as alleviate some of the pressure in their upcoming matches. The game itself was hard-fought on both sides, and although the USA's goal was a bit of a fluke (Thank you Robert "Butterfingers" Green), but I thought they played very well. England started out great, striking quickly in the 4th or 5th minute and dominating the ball for the first third of the match. After Clint Dempsey's equalizer for the Americans later in the first half, however, it seemed to take the wind out of England's sails a bit while giving the USA a jolt. What was particularly reassuring was the American defense, the squad's biggest question mark coming in. They did a great job of shutting down England's fantastic striker, and one of the top 5 players in the world, in Wayne Rooney, who got very few chances and could not do anything with them. Not that Rooney played badly, he certainly played hard and tried to make something out of nothing numerous times,especially in the second half when he really picked up his energy level, but I think the Americans did really well not to give Rooney any easy scoring opportunities.

For the American side, their biggest star Landon Donovan was shut down as well, but to an even greater extent than Rooney. I didn't even really notice Donovan out there, and I don't remember his name being called even once the entire second half. Even after switching sides with Dempsey to get away from England's Ashley Cole, Donovan had zero impact on the game. The USA normally goes as Donovan goes, so they need him to really pick it up moving forward.
Oguchi Onyewu played strong in the middle and was fit enough to go the full 90 minutes for the USA, something they're really going to need if they want to advance deep into this tournament. Forward Jozy Altidore, whom the Americans really need to be a scoring threat, played well and had a great chance to put the USA ahead on a nice run in the second half when his shot deflected off the keeper's fingertips and off the goalpost. But the man of the match was definitely USA goalkeeper Tim Howard. He made a handful of impressive and imperative stops in the second half, as well as coming out of net to make other crucial plays, including the one he got hurt on. He's recognized as one of the best keepers in the world and the USA really needs him to be healthy if they want to do damage in the World Cup.

After Slovenia's 1-0 victory today over Algeria, England and the USA are tied for second in Group C with 1 point apiece. England will be heavily favored against each of their remaining opponents so assuming they win both games that means the Americans have to at least win one to advance out of group play (Or draw both and put their faith in the tiebreaker, but soccer's tiebreaker rules are notoriously sketchy). After watching them go toe-to-toe with one of the top teams in the tournament, I believe the USA is in great position to do just that. As long as they get Landon Donovan going, and sharpen up their attack to support their star keeper, the Americans should advance to at least the second round.