NFL Week 1 Roundup

I'm keeping it simple. Here's what we can take away from each team after their first game of the season:

-Before the season started, no one was really talking about the Steelers. They've got the same team that won a Super Bowl last year, their defense is still ferocious (My Troy Polamalu DPOY pick was looking mighty good until he got hurt...seems like the Madden Curse lives on as well), and Big Ben can win them games when their running game is sluggish. How are these guys not at the top of the contenders list?

-The Titans look like they won't miss a beat without Big Al in the middle of their line. Held a good Steelers running game to 1.6 yards per carry. Justin Gage looks like a real reciever.

-The Falcons are prepared to back up their surprising success from a year ago.

-The Dolphins are not.

-The Broncos offense is pretty bad without Jay Cutler and a civilized Brandon Marshall.

-The Bengals offense looked even worse, even with all their guys in there. Ochocinco looks like he's back and that defense looks for real.

-It doesn't matter who the Browns quarterback is, their offense is terrible and their defense still can't stop the run.

-Adrian Peterson is a monster in pads (My preseason MVP pick looking pretty good right about now), and the Vikings are real contenders if they can keep their gunslinging quarterback calm enough to accept 85 yards of passing offense is good enough with a thoroughbred like Peterson running wild every week.

-The Jaguars still have trouble throwing the ball, but MJD will be just fine as the feature back.

-The Colts still can't run the ball, but the Manning-Wayne connection is still deadly (10-14, 162 yds, 1 TD). That defense looks good and can be great if Bob Sanders ever gets on the field.

-The Lions defense is still terrible. Matthew Stafford is going to take his rookie lumps. Calvin Johnson is still a beast.

-The Saints offense is still more explosive than 100 crates of dynamite. Reggie Bush is still not.

-Tony Romo will be just fine without that annoying, whining, drama-causing, reality TV-starring, diva of a partner. Ditching Jessica Simpson helps too.

-The Buccaneers are terrible this season. That running game will win them a couple surprising games though. Kudos to Cadillac on the comeback.

-Donovan McNabb has a nice game but gets hurt. What else is new? We may be seeing the Michael Vick era in Philly sooner rather than later.

-Jake Delhomme picks up right where he left off. In his last 2 games, he now has a passer rating of -57.3 (approximate), 0 touchdowns and 11 (ELEVEN!!!!) turnovers. I didn't think this was possible for a TEAM let alone a single player. My Steve Smith fantasy bust prediction also looking pretty good right now.

-Kansas City is still trying to get used to this new offensive system. That defense is still awful.

-The Ravens defense is going to miss Rex Ryan and the players he took with him. Joe Flacco is for real.

-The Jets defense benefits greatly from Rex Ryan and the players he brought with him as they hold a dynamic Texans team to 0 points on offense. Mark Sanchez may be this year's Flacco or Matt Ryan.

-The Texans defense looked pretty good until they wore down late in the game and let Thomas Jones break off a couple long runs. The time of possession killed them. Defense wore down and offense didn't have the ball enough to do anything. But I will admit I am worried about my Texans playoff prediction. Tennessee looked a lot better. That's going to be a telling game this weekend.

-Steve Smith looks like the most reliable target for Eli Manning. Mario Manningham looks like the offense's deep threat. Ahmad Bradshaw will be quite productive backing up Brandon Jacobs this year and that defense is still scary good.

-Jason Campbell is on the fast track to becoming the next Byron Leftwich; never lives up to the hype and goes from team to team hoping for another chance. That pass defense should have looked better against a mediocre quarterback with no proven receivers.

-The Curse of the Super Bowl Loser still exists. The Cardinals offense may take some time to work out the kinks without Todd Haley running the show, though Boldin was hobbled and Breaston didn't play. Larry Fitzgerald will get his no matter what you do to try and stop him.

-The 49ers have the defense to win this mediocre division. Frank Gore looked awful against a run-of-the-mill Cardinals run defense (22 carries for 30 yards). And the Niners as a team averaged 0.8 yards per carry. Did I mention the Cardinals don't have a good run defense? Isaac Bruce still has a pulse.

-The Seahawks are back after a terrible 2008 season.

-The Rams are not.

-The Packers look every bit the Super Bowl hopefuls I see them to be. That defense is for real, Ryan Grant looks healthy again, and Aaron Rodgers can make big plays when he needs to.

-Jay Cutler may be re-thinking his desire to leave Denver. He's halfway to Jake Delhomme with those 4 picks and sub-50 completion percentage. The Bears may be in for a long season, especially with Urlacher now out for the year.

-The Bills threw the ball to T.O. 3 times. Four other players got more targets and their leading receiver was their backup running back. Over/under 2 weeks before T.O. throws Trent Edwards under the bus? Buffalo should have won that game though.

-The Patriots are going to miss all those defensive players that have departed the last couple years. Brady to Moss and Brady to Welker hasn't skipped a beat (24-32, 234 yds) and Brady to anyone hasn't either (2 touchdown passes to Benjamin Watson). I'd be worried if I were a Pats fan. They were trailing by 11 in the 4th quarter at home against a team they had beaten 11 straight times.

-Chargers fans should be worried too. If it weren't for a Raiders touchdown being called back this game could have had a different result. LT finished the game on the sidelines again. That defense should not have let the Raiders outgain their own offense. Could this be the birth of the Curse of Tila Tequila?

-The Raiders are the Raiders. That defense looks good. Richard Seymour is going to be a big help this season. Jamarcus Russell can still bomb it out there, but don't ask him to actually aim his throws at a receiver (40% completion percentage, 47.6 QB rating). That running game can carry them though.

2009 NFL Predictions

MVP
Adrian Peterson (RB, Vikings)-- 2,000 yards, 16 TDs
Honorable Mention: Tom Brady (QB, Patriots)-- 4,500 yards, 37 TDs

Defensive Player of the Year
Troy Polamalu (SS, Steelers)-- 75 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 8 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 1 TD
Honorable Mention: Mario Williams (DE, Texans)-- 55 tackles, 18.0 sacks, 5 FF, 3 FR

Offensive Rookie of the Year
Donald Brown (RB, Colts)-- 1,200 total yards, 8 total TDs
Honorable Mention: Knowshon Moreno (RB, Broncos)-- 1,100 yards, 6 TDs

Defensive Rookie of the Year
B.J. Raji (DT, Packers)-- 50 tackles, 6.0 sacks, 3 FF
Honorable Mention: Brian Cushing (LB, Texans)-- 90 tackles, 5.0 sacks, 2 FF, 2 INT

Best Fantasy Value
Anquan Boldin (WR, Cardinals)-- Going 2 rounds after Fitzgerald but will put up the same if not better numbers.

Biggest Fantasy Sleeper
Donald Brown (RB, Colts)-- After Joseph Addai gets hurt, Brown will put up monster numbers.

Biggest Fantasy Bust
Steve Smith (WR, Panthers)-- The Panthers run, run again, and then run some more (1st in the NFL in rushing attempts last year). I don't trust Jake Delhomme at all, Smith is an injury risk, there's no one else to take pressure off of him, and has too many games of very little production. Not worth a second round pick and wouldn't want him as my top receiver.
AFC Playoffs
1. New England Patriots (14-2)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
3. San Diego Chargers (12-4)
4. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
6. Houston Texans (10-6)
Just out: Tennessee Titans (10-6)- They're going to miss Albert Haynesworth an awful lot

Wild Card Round:
San Diego over Houston (A lot closer game than you think)
Baltimore over Indianapolis

Divisional Round:
New England over Baltimore (Very close game)
Pittsburgh over San Diego (For the second time this year)

AFC Championship Game:
Pittsburgh over New England (Steelers defense good enough to slow down Pats offense, Pats defense missing too many key parts to hold down Steelers)

NFC Playoffs
1. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
2. New York Giants (12-4)
3. Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
4. Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
6. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Just out: Chicago Bears (10-6)- Lose head-to-head vs. Eagles and divisional tiebreaker to Packers

Wild Card Round:
Packers over Falcons (Matt Ryan still a year away)
Eagles over Cardinals (Payback for last year's NFC Championship game)

Divisional Round:
Packers over Vikings (Bad karma for the Retirement Riddler. He has a chance to win the game late, but throws 2 interceptions in the 4th quarter and retires immediately after saying he came back to give the Packers this win all along and takes credit for developing Aaron Rodgers who outplays him by a mile and a half)
Giants over Eagles (Payback for last year's Divisional round game)

NFC Championship:
Giants over Packers (Giants D stops Rodgers and his aerial assault. Giants backs run the ball very well against Green Bay to pull out the win)

Obama Bowl (Super Bowl 44)
Steelers over Giants 20-17
Of course the team with the black head coach wins the Obama Bowl (Super Bowl 44, Obama is the 44th President) and this time James Harrison does visit the White House. The Steelers are still the class of the NFL. Enjoy the 2009 NFL season!!

NFL Preview: AFC West

Here we are, at the end of my divisional previews. The last one is the one I care the most about, the AFC West, but unfortunately it's probably also the most predictable.

Denver Broncos
The 2008 season began with much promise as the Broncos won 4 of their first 5 games. However a 4-7 slide, including 3 straight losses to finish out the year had the Broncos missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season.
The offense found itself in plenty of shootouts, but that's right where the 2nd best unit in the league wanted to be. Budding star quarterback Jay Cutler led the third ranked passing attack throwing to talented but problematic receiver Brandon Marshall and company. Marshall caught over 100 passes for the second straight season and rookie wideout Eddie Royal stepped up to catch some big passes. New offensive-minded head coach Josh McDaniels was supposed to take this offense to an even higher level, but the marriage has been rocky to say the least. He alienated Jay Cutler to the point of being forced to trade him to Chicago for Kyle Orton, and was also forced to suspend Marshall for a week just before the beginning of the season for insubordination. Broncos fans are hoping that McDaniels can regain control of this team and unleash the power of this offense that should be strengthened with the addition of rookie running back Knowshon Moreno.
Denver was in so many shootouts because their defense couldn't contain anyone. The Broncos finished 29th in total defense and 30th in scoring defense. They were equally dismal against the run and the pass, ending the year 27th in run defense and 26th in pass defense. The 30 rushing scores they allowed was the 3rd most given up by one team. A healthy Champ Bailey at corner and the acquisition of veteran safety Brian Dawkins should bolster that pass defense and linebacker Andra Davis will help stop the run. The Broncos need this defense to vastly improve if they want to compete in 2009.
The Broncos should have taken the logical step to becoming division champs this year, but the way McDaniels has created bad chemistry by trading away his best player and making his next best player demand a trade as well has a foreboding of another long season in the Mile-High city.
Prediction: 5-11, 3rd in the AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs
It was a horrendous year for the Chiefs in 2008. They finished 2-14 and didn't win a single game outside of the division.
To help boost their 24th ranked offense, Kansas City replaced head coach Herm Edwards with former Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley over the offseason, hoping it will make a difference. Haley decided to fire Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and assume the duties himself. The Chiefs also brought in breakout quarterback Matt Cassel over from the Patriots to finally give them a decent signal caller. However, the Chiefs traded away future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, leaving wide receiver Dwayne Bowe as Cassel's only solid option to throw to. Kansas City's running game wasn't terrible last year, as they were 4th in the league in yards per carry and they will once more turn to Larry Johnson in hopes of him finally staying healthy and recapturing his dominance from 2006.
You know you have a bad defense when you let a medicore Bills offense put 54 points up on the board. The Chiefs finished 2nd to last in total defense and 29th in scoring defense on the year. They weren't much better at stopping the pass (28th) than they were at stopping the run (30th) so clearly they need help all over the field. They're trying to switch to a 3-4 defense, moving defensive end Tamba Hali to linebacker and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey to end. They hope bringing in 3-4 veteran Mike Vrabel will make the transition easier for their other players and that they will at least have a solid linebacking corps with Derrick Johnson and Demorrio Williams joining Vrabel and Hali. Getting used to a new system without improved talent and with a coach who cares about offense are not hallmarks of a great defense though.
The Chiefs are looking at a clear rebuilding year. All they hope to see is their large investment in Cassel pay off and some effectiveness out of their new 3-4 scheme. Chiefs fans might as well start planning for next year.
Prediction: 3-13, 4th in the AFC West

Oakland Raiders
It's hard to believe that the Raiders are just 7 years removed from actually making it to the Super Bowl and having an MVP quarterback and two Hall of Fame wide receivers on their team, but such is the case for a squad that has won just 24 games in the 6 seasons after that game (The same number of wins as they had in the 2 years prior to this stretch). Last year was actually decent for Oakland, as their 5-11 record was tied for the best mark they've had since 2002 and 4 of their 5 wins came against teams with a .500 or better record, including a week 17 upset over the Buccaneers in Tampa to knock the Bucs out of the playoffs.
The Raiders finished the year 29th in both total offense and scoring offense. In Jamarcus Russell's first full year as the starting quarterback, the former #1 overall pick had Oakland throwing for the fewest yards in the NFL as he posted an atrocious 53.8% completion percentage (I watched this guy play, and he has absolutely NO touch on his throws. If he has a guy open 15 yards downfield he can't hit him in stride because with a flick of his wrist the ball sails 30 yards). One thing the Raiders offense did do well though was run the football, finishing 10th in rushing offense and yards per carry. Their triple threat backfield of 1st round pick Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush was quite effective as all 3 of them rushed for more than 400 yards. They should be even better this year if McFadden can stay on the field unhindered by a turf toe problem that limited his tremendous capabilities last season. The Raiders still have no receiving threats outside tight end Zach Miller after passing up a chance to draft Michael Crabtree in this year's draft. Darrius Heyward-Bey may have great speed (and that may be exactly what it takes to actually be able to catch a Jamracus Russell pass), but he was known in college for being a subpar route-runner and dropping a lot of balls, not a good combination for an NFL wide receiver.
Oakland did not fare much better on defense last season, ranking 27th in total defense and 24th in scoring. They were stout against the pass though, as All Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha shut down one half of the field. DeAngelo Hall was suppsosed to take care of the other half, but the Raiders mysteriously cut him midway through the season after signing him to a long term deal just a few months earlier. Oakland put up no resistance against the run, ranking 2nd to last in run defense, 28th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 27th in yards per carry against. Hopefully they can improve in that area after bolstering their defensive line with former Pro Bowlers Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour (though Seymour has yet to report to the team, and frankly, I don't blame him). With a solid young linebacking corps behind them, the Raiders front seven should be somewhat respectable in 2009.
Oakland showed some decent flashes last season with nice wins against good teams. They should be able to take a step forward this season, but a tough schedule will challenge them and they will once again be picking near the top of the draft. The upside is that six wins would get them their best season in 7 years, and that is not out of the realm of possibility for the Raiders.
Prediction: 6-10, 2nd in the AFC West

San Diego Chargers
The Chargers had a roller coaster of a season in 2008. They lost a game in week 2 solely on one bad officiating call that the referee admitted to after the game and found themselves dead in the water at 4-8 heading into December. All of a sudden everything changed as they won their final 4 games (scoring a combined 93 points in their last 2) and Denver collapsed down the stretch, enabling the Chargers to reach the playoffs. They even pulled out a victory over the Colts in the Wild Card round before losing to eventual champion Pittsburgh the following week.
The Chargers offense was a monster last year, scoring the 2nd most points out of any team in the league, but not in the way it has been in the past. San Diego's offense used to be the LT Show, but ranked just 20th in rushing offense last year as LaDainian Tomlinson battled injuries all season. Quarterback Philip Rivers took charge though, slinging the rock around for over 4,000 yards passing and a league leading 34 touchdown passes. He also led the league in yards per attempt and was second in QB rating. Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates had another great year, and wide receiver Vincent Jackson enjoyed a breakout season. Concerns linger this year over the health of Tomlinson, now hitting the dreaded 30 year old mark, but he claims to be feeling as good as ever, and they invested a good deal of money into backup Darren Sproles who proved to be a real good player in his own right. Now with a legit passing game to back the runners up, this offense is poised for another big season in 2009.
The Chargers came into last year with arguably the most feared defense in all of football. But after losing former All Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman to a season-ending injury one game into the season, this defense fell apart, ranking 25th overall and a woeful 31st against the pass. The run defense was a decent 11th, but this unit did not live up to expectations. Merriman begins this season in some more trouble, this time with the law, but assuming he's good to go the Chargers have way too much talent on defense to perform as poorly as they did in 2008. Nose tackle Jamal Williams will once again lead the run defense helped out by rookie linebacker Larry English and safety and top tackler from a year ago Eric Weddle. Meanwhile linebackers and pass rush extraordinaires Merriman and Shaun Phillips will put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and corners Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, and Antoine Cason comprise a very deep secondary. This defense should be back to its stingy ways this season.
The Chargers will win what could easily be the worst division in the NFL basically by default. But don't be fooled, this is one heck of a football team, and the added divisonal wins will pay dividends when it comes time to deciding home field for the playoffs. And San Diego is going to need a few home playoff games if they want to contend for a Super Bowl like they are capable of doing.
Prediction: 12-4, 1st in the AFC West

NFL Preview: AFC South

Yesterday I gave the Pittsburgh Steelers a decent chance at repeating as Super Bowl Champions. Today I look at the AFC South, home of the title-holders from 3 seasons ago, the Indianapolis Colts.

Houston Texans
Since coming into the NFL as an expansion team in 2002, the Texans have yet to make the playoffs, but have come painfully close the last couple seasons. The Texans went 5-1 down the stretch in 2008 to finish with their second consecutive 8-8 record.
Houston has developed into one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, ranking 3rd in total offense last year. Their catalyst is quarterback Matt Schaub, who puts up monster numbers on the field, but is often injured behind a woeful offensive line. Schaub missed 5 games for the second straight season but still amassed over 3,000 yards passing to lead the 4th ranked passing attack in the league. All Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson led the NFL in receptions (115) and receiving yards (1575). The Texans got a great year out of rookie running back Steve Slaton, who rushed for nearly 1300 yards to lead a 13th ranked running game. Though Slaton is diminuitive in stature, he still got the job done around the goal line, plowing in for 9 touchdowns. Taking better care of the ball will be a goal for the Texans this season, as they turned it over more than all but 2 teams last year. This offense will once again be dependent upon the health of Schaub. With the weapons he has at his disposal, this will be a high-octane offense once more.
Houston's defense has been its achilles heel since its inception, and last year was no different. Despite having a lot of great individual talent, they ranked 22nd in total defense and 27th in scoring defense. Starting corner Dunta Robinson missed significant time due to injury, thinning the ranks in the secondary, which caused the Texans to give up the 26th most passing touchdowns in the league. Their run defense wasn't much better, ranking 23rd in the league and giving up the 24th most scores on the ground. Linebacker DeMeco Ryans had another outstanding season as the team's top tackler and monster defensive end Mario Williams continued to make Reggie Bush fans look silly, busting through double and triple teams to record 12 sacks on his way to another Pro Bowl selection. The Texans will be counting on young defensive tackle Amobi Okoye to vastly improve his subpar performance from last season and on rookie linebacker Brian Cushing to help out that struggling run defense this year.
Once again the Texans come into the season with high hopes after another strong finish to a season. Whether or not they can take the next step and reach the playoffs depends on an improvement in their defense and Matt Schaub being able to stay healthy the entire year. It could definitely happen, but in a division this tough it will be quite a challenge.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
The Colts got off to a tough start last season, sporting a 3-4 mark at Halloween. Then Peyton Manning got them rolling to the tune of 9 straight wins and a playoff berth. Alas, the Colts had to play a road game in the playoffs, even though their opponent won FOUR FEWER GAMES (How is that fair again??) and went down to the Chargers.
With injuries decimating their offensive line and even affecting Manning during the season, the Colts' usually dynamic offense experienced some regression, dropping to 15th in total offense. All World quarterback Peyton Manning rallied the passing game though, earning another top 5 ranking and his 3rd NFL MVP award. Indianapolis had incredible difficulty in running the ball, and starting back Joseph Addai was banged up all season (Definitely the biggest fantasy bust of 2008). The Colts finished 2nd to last in rushing offense and last in yards per carry. They spent their first round pick in this year's draft on running back Donald Brown to help out and provide a reliable backup in case Addai goes down again.
The Colts defense was actually pretty good last year, ranking 11th in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. Their 6th rated pass defense in particular was terrific, and they allowed just 6 passing touchdowns, fewest in the NFL and just HALF of the second fewest allowed by one team. Pro Bowl defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis gave opposing quarterbacks headaches with their 22 combined sacks. The defense's fate ultimately rests on the questionable health of star safety Bob Sanders, who only played in 6 games last season. If he can somehow stay healthy this year (which doesn't seem likely at the moment), the Colts can feel comfortable with their defense again.
With an all-time great like Peyton Manning at the helm of a great offense, the Colts will certainly be contenders again. But with new coaches making changes that some players, including Manning, have disagreed with and a brittle defense, there may be too many wild cards for the Colts to go all the way.
Prediction: 11-5, 1st in the AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars had a disappointing 2008, finishing 5-11 and last in the South. Six losses in their final seven games led to some shakeups in the offseason.
The offense was mediocre last season, finishing 20th in the league and 24th in scoring. Their normally effective running game dropped off in 2008. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to lead a rushing offense that finished 18th in the NFL and 17th in yards per carry. Taylor bolted for the Patriots in the offseason, leaving Jones-Drew as the primary ball carrier this year. David Garrard will once again quarterback this team and hopes to do it with some better receiving options. Rams great Torry Holt will try to resurrect his career in Jacksonville and young burner Troy Williamson will proved the Jags with a legitimate deep threat.
Jacksonville's normally stout defense took a hit last season, coming in 21st in scoring defense. Their pass defense was their downfall, ranking 24th in the league, 30th in yards per attempt and allowing the 27th most passing TD's. Injuries to star corner Reshean Mathis and top drafted safety Reggie Nelson didn't help, and having those two back healthy will make a difference this season. Run stuffing defensive tackle John Henderson will have to shoulder a larger burden with linebacker Mike Peterson departing. This unit will have to get back to its stingy ways if the Jaguars want to make some noise in 2009.
The Jags offense is certain to be better than it was last year, but what about their defense? In such a tough division, they are no sure thing to do well this season.
Prediction: 7-9, 4th in the AFC South

Tennessee Titans
The Titans overcame a quarterback controversy last season to go on an amazing run and finish with the best record in the NFL at 13-3. They won their first 10 games and 12 of their first 13. It didn't pay off though, as they lost their first playoff game at home to Baltimore.
After Vince Young's alleged suicidal thoughts, the Titans installed Kerry Collins as their full-time starting quarterback. He wasn't great (I mean, he's Kerry Collins) but he got the job done as Tennessee threw the 3rd fewest interceptions in the league last year. Collins spent most of his time handing off to Smash-and-Dash running backs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. The rookie Johnson came up big with over 1200 yards and 9 scores to make the Pro Bowl. White added 15 more TD's to a rushing offense that finished second in rushing scores last season. Johnson has clamored for a bigger role this year, but White lost close to 30 pounds over the offseason (Claiming it to be due to the fact he stopped drinking so much Patron...wish I could lose 30 pounds like that...except with Pepsi of course) and seems motivated to do more than get goal line carries. It's a good problem to have for an offense that still has no reliable passing game.
It was the defense that carried the Titans in 2008, ranking 7th overall and 2nd in scoring. All Pro defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth annihilated offensive lines on his way to eating up ball carriers and All Pro corner Cortland Finnegan anchored a secondary that allowed the 2nd fewest touchdown passes in the league last year. Aging defensive ends Jevon Kearse and Kyle VandenBosch weren't able to generate much of a pass rush and with another year gone by who knows if they can come back strong this season. Haynesworth will have to be replaced on the front line, no easy task, and Tennessee will start 7 players on defense age 29 or older.
This appears to be pretty much the same team that won 13 games a season ago, but it is no small feat to replace Haynesworth in the middle of that line. Without improvement from their passing game, the Titans may be stuck in a rut with so many teams improving around them.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the AFC South

College Football Opening Weekend Recap

College football season got under way this past weekend, as the BCS will try (unsuccessfully of course) to not screw up another season for a deserving contender or five. Here's what went down:

Headline
The primetime matchup of the first day of the 2009 season saw 2 top 16 teams with big hopes of success this year battle it out on the blue turf in Boise. #14 Boise State beat #16 Oregon 19-8 in a sloppy game, but that wasn't the big story. After the game was over and the teams were walking off the field, Boise State defensive end Bryan Hout ran over to Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount and rapped him on the shoulder, said some taunting words, and turned to start laughing with his teammates. Blount, who was already upset over a poor performance and loss, reacted by whipping around and punching Hout in the face (By the way, it was a great punch. Sadly, most punches thrown in the heat of a sports fight miss and the whole fight becomes uneventful as a result. Now there was no all-out brawl in this case, but the situation was so much more entertaining because Blount landed a solid punch squarely on the guy's face. In all my days of watching sports, this was the second most satisfying punch I've seen, in a non-hockey game of course, behind only Jermaine O'Neal's fantastic sliding punch right to the face of a Pistons fan in the Malace at the Palace). Blount apologized profusely after the game for his actions, but the University of Oregon stepped in and suspended Blount the next day for the rest of his senior season. At first I was totally against this sentence. I mean, what he did wasn't so bad. Then later I saw the video of what happened afterward when he tried rushing the fans and had to be held back by teammates and coaches. It was an ugly, ugly scene and I could then understand that the team would want to make a statement about not tolerating such behavior, and while I'm okay with the year-long ban I still don't think it's the correct punishment. When you look at the whole situation, it's honestly not that terrible. Obviously, he should have kept his cool and not retaliated with violence, but he was provoked after all. Hout had no business seeking him out and intentionally taunting him like that. You've got to expect some retaliation, and in the heat of the moment, after a very discouraging loss, Blount cracked and just hauled off and punched him. Even Hout's head coach admitted the next day that Hout had it coming to him. Punches are no stranger to sports. Hout wasn't seriously injured, and while it does deserve a penalty, I don't think it should be for the whole season. Blount was rated by ESPN to be the 2nd best running back prospect entering next year's NFL draft. With him being out for the whole season, he won't be allowed to let potential employers see that he's not so hot-headed in addition to his football skills. This is his senior season that Oregon is making him forego and it will cost him millions of dollars and possibly a career. After all, he only punches someone who goaded him into doing so. Is that worth someone's livelihood? I don't think so. And what makes the situation even more unfair is that Hout faces no consequences at all. The entire incident was his fault. If he didn't run over to Blount specifically to taunt him, Blount never goes on his rampage. It's not right that Blount gets kicked off his team for retaliating and nothing happens to Hout, who instigated it all in the first place. If it were up to me, I'd suspend Hout for at least 2 games for starting this mess, and I'd suspend Blount indefinitely. I don't think you can put a finite number of games on what he did. I would suspend him indefinitely, but I'd have no problem re-instating him if he can prove to his coaching staff that he has learned from his mistake, if he works hard, practices hard, keeps up with his classes, and represents the university in the manner he's supposed to. It could take 4 games, it could take 10, maybe he doesn't get his act together and he does sit out the whole year, but I think he deserves a shot to show people he's learned from his unfortunate explosion and help his football career reach the next level, and leaving the door for a return open adds some incentive for him to work hard and change people's opinion about him. It's not like he seriously harmed anyone. He was just provoked into a retaliatory punch that Hout deserved. Of course he deserves to be punished, but not necessarily this much.

Biggest Winners
1. The BCS Busters
Score one for the little people! The debate for good teams from non-BCS conferences to get a shot at playing for a national championship was strengthened over the weekend after Boise (from the WAC) beat Oregon (from the PAC-10), and the big shocker came when #20 BYU (from the almighty Mountain West) knocked off defending Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and #3 Oklahoma (from the Big 12), leaping to #9 in this week's poll. Last season the only undefeated team in the nation was Utah (from the almighty Mountain West), but they didn't get to play for the national championship because they weren't supposed to be good enough to compete with teams from BCS conferences. Then the Utes went out and dusted Alabama (from the SEC, supposedly the most powerful conference in the nation) in the Sugar Bowl. Five years before Utah had another perfect season and BCS bowl win, and in 2005 Boise State accomplished that feat. With these teams now playing tougher schedules in the regular season they are proving they belong and have a terrific case to be allowed to compete for a national title. One of these two big winners, or even other Mountain West powerhouses Utah or TCU have a chance to crash the BCS party this year.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The University of Football in America has fallen off the pedastal over the last two decades. The program has lost its luster on the national stage and everyone is sick and tired of the Notre Dame alums wistfully reminiscing about the good ol' days. Head coach Charlie Weis is on the hot seat this season after another subpar year in 2008. Last week a billboard near campus sarcastically wished Weis luck in the fifth year of his coaching internship. Internship. Gotta love the taste. The Fighting Irish quieted the detractors for one week at least as they shut out Nevada at home 35-0. It was their first shutout win since 2002. Even though it came at home against a mediocre school, it was nonetheless a good sign that they dominated the way they were supposed to. They could make more noise this weekend as they sport a #18 ranking heading in to the Big House to take on Michigan.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys played their most meaningful home opener in school history when they hosted SEC mainstay Georgia, the 13th ranked team in the country. The Cowboys rode roughshod over the Bulldogs 24-10. OK State was supposed to win shootouts with a high scoring offense, so it was great for them to win a game with their defense for a change. In addition to their big win, their in-state rival Oklahoma was upset, vaulting State up to #5 in the rankings. Also if Bradford misses any significant length of time, which looks highly likely, the Cowboys would have a great chance to battle Texas for the Big 12 crown and a berth in the national championship game.

Biggest Losers
1. Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners came in to the 2009 season with sky-high expectations after an incredible run to the national title game last year. Heisman winner Sam Bradford returned for his senior season to lead the most prolific offense in the nation. But everything fell apart shortly after kicking off the year at Texas Stadium in Dallas. Bradford went down with a shoulder injury and the Sooners lost to BYU 14-13. Now Bradford is reported to forego surgery and rehab for 2-4 weeks to try and return to save the Sooners' season. Even worse for Oklahoma is the news that they lost the best tight end in the country Jermaine Gresham for the enitre year. And now they fall behind both Texas and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 South. It doesn't get much worse than this for the first weekend of the season.

2. Big Ten
The Big Ten conference has been trying to restore their reputation as one of the most powerful conferences in the nation. Michigan and Penn State have fallen from grace in recent years, leaving Ohio State alone to carry the conference mantle. And they haven't done a very good job recently. They played in back-to-back national championship games and got blown out by SEC opponents Florida and LSU respectively. Then last year they took a trip to Los Angeles to take on USC and got their brains beaten in 35-3. The Big Ten didn't do much to dispel their recent trend of not playing up to snuff. No. 6 Ohio State barely survived at home against Navy 31-27. Navy actually had a chance to tie the game late in the 4th quarter. Any time a top 6 team has trouble beating an armed forces school, chances are it'll be a long season. With #3 USC visiting Columbus this weekend, there's sure to be some trouble. No. 22 Iowa scheduled a cupcake opener against lowly Northern Iowa, but they sweat it out all the way to the end, and had to block 2 field goals in the final 5 seconds to win the game 17-16 at home. Minnesota traveled east to meet Syracuse, whose starting quarterback was busy playing basketball at Duke for the last 4 years and hadn't played a meaningful football game in 5 years, and lucked into a 23-20 win in overtime. Illiinois, who is just 2 years removed from a Rose Bowl berth (where they got stomped on by USC), got trounced by Missouri 37-9. All in all, it was not a good weekend for the Big Ten, with heavy favorites barely pulling out victories and a bad loss against the one decent opponent (who was still unranked). The conference can have even more credibility stripped this weekend if Ohio State and Michigan can't keep it close at home against USC and Notre Dame respectively.

3. ACC
It was just 10 years ago that two current ACC teams, Virginia Tech and Florida State (Va Tech was in the Big East at the time) were playing each other in the national championship game. Since then the conference has become an afterthought, as those two schools as well as former powerhouse Miami have fallen hard and fast. Despite sending a ton of talent on to the NFL, no ACC football program has garnered national attention in recent years. Upstart teams have come out of the woodwork to snag conference titles and preseason hopefuls have their dream seasons wrecked early and often. This past weekend was supposed to be the ACC's coming out party, with a slate of big non-conference games. However, after these performances, the conference remains mired in mediocrity. Only 2 FBS (formerly known as Division 1-A) teams lost to FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) teams in the opening weekend. Both of those teams call the ACC home. Virginia lost at home to William & Mary 26-14 and Duke fell prey to Richmond for the second straight time at home 24-16. Wake Forest, who was the surprise conference champion from 2 seasons ago hosted unranked Big 12 opponent Baylor, a team that has consistently finished last in the Big 12 South in recent years, and lost 24-21. NC State kicked off the weekend with a nationally televised home game against unranked South Carolina and only managed to put 3 points on the board in a loss. Maryland looked to make a statement travelling out to west to play #12 Cal at Berkeley and got unceremoniously hammered 52-13. And finally, in the marquee matchup of the weekend, #7 Virginia Tech took on #5 Alabama in primetime on Saturday night. They couldn't get it done though, losing 34-24 in Atlanta. The ACC was a major flop in week 1 of the season, only adding fuel to the fire of teams in the Mountain West and WAC who believe they're more deserving of BCS bowl bids than some major conference champions.

Game of the Week
One game in which the ACC didn't get embarrassed (Because both teams are ACC schools) was the usual opening weekend tilt between former heavyweights Florida State and Miami. The 18th ranked Seminoles were hosting the Hurricanes in an instant classic that went down to the wire. The bitter rivals traded the lead over and over with numerous 4th quarter scores. With Miami leading 38-34, Florida State drove the ball down the field and had it 1st and Goal from the Hurricane 2 yard line with under 15 seconds left to play. The Seminoles had three plays to punch it in, but couldn't do it and the final pass was dropped in the end zone as time expired and Miami prevailed with a big conference road win and a fresh #20 ranking in this week's polls.

Heisman Watch
Here are some guys who got their Heisman campaigns started with big time opening weekend performances:
Jahvid Best (RB, Cal)-- 10 carries, 137 yards, 2 TD
Dez Bryant (WR, OK State)-- 3 receptions, 77 yards, 2 TD
Joe McKnight (RB, USC)-- 14 carries, 145 yards, 2 TD
Darryll Clark (QB, Penn State)-- 29-40, 353 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)-- 15-18, 315 yards, 4 TD

Week 2 Preview
Thoughts on some of the key matchups this weekend:

No. 3 USC at No. 8 Ohio State- The Trojans are starting a true freshman at quarterback for the first time in their storied history. That might come into play against a repectable Buckeyes squad, but with all the depth and talent USC has, not to mention a huge discrepancy between the quality of these two teams, it really shouldn't matter. Don't expect a repeat of last year's 35-3 beatdown at the Colisseum, but I'd be surprised if USC didn't win this game easily.

No. 18 Notre Dame at Michigan- It's the classic tale of two once mighty teams trying to re-establish themselves. These two teams are 1st and 2nd in wins in college football history. Neither one has had much recent success and this big rivalry has faded a bit on the national scene. With both these coaches under fire this season, this will be the first of many games that could determine whether they are still employed at these schools next year.

UCLA at Tennessee- Another case of two teams trying to get their program back on the map nationally, but neither school was ever as prominent as the two mentioned above. UCLA is trying to prove that L.A. is big enough for two great college football teams, and Tennessee wants to reclaim their glory from just over a decade ago when they were national champions. Volunteers coach Lane Kiffin spent the entire offseason touting his program to whoever would listen, and this is his first chance to show that Tennessee is back for real.

NFL Preview: AFC North

Yesterday I predicted that the Patriots would get back to their dominating ways in the AFC East. Today I take a gander at the North, where reigning champ Pittsburgh will look to hold off the Pats and win their 3rd Super Bowl in 5 years.

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens bucked the trend last season with a rookie head coach and and a rookie quarterback by winning 9 of their last 11 regular season games and making it all the way to the AFC championship game. They fell short against division rival and eventual champion Pittsburgh, but the Ravens showed a lot of promise for the future.
I mentioned quarterback Joe Flacco coming out of nowhere to lead this squad to the conference title game. The Ravens game planned for him in such a way that he was able to just manage the game and limit mistakes. Baltimore threw the 9th fewest interceptions in 2008, which made up for a meek 28th ranked passing attack. The Ravens spared Flacco having to make big plays by running the ball constantly. Their three-headed running monster of Ray RIce, Le'Ron McClain, and Willis McGahee led the league in rusing attempts, were 4th in yards, and 5th in touchdowns. Rice will probably have a much larger role in the offense in his second season, and the team is excited about his dynamic ability to pick up nice chunks of yards on the ground and through the air.
The defense was once again ferocious for Baltimore. They finished 2nd in the league in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. Led by All Pro linebacker (and alleged murderer...no wonder running backs are scared of him) Ray Lewis and All Pro safety Ed Reed, the Ravens finished 2nd in pass defense and 3rd in rush defense. They didn't give an inch in any part of the field to anyone, and it carried them to within a game of the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, defensive coordinator Rex Ryan accepted the Jets head coaching position and took a couple Ravens starters with him. Three-fourths of the starting secondary from last year are gone, and it will be up to young corners Fabian Washington and Domonique Foxworth to replace two of the best cover corners in the league in Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle. If the Ravens secondary can hold their own, their fearsome front seven will wreak havoc on opposing offenses once more this season.
The Ravens will be mighty similar to what they were last year. The offense should take a step forward with Flacco and Rice having a year of experience under their belts, but the losses incurred on the defense should offset those gains. The Ravens will challenge Pittsburgh for the division crown once more, but it will be a shocker for this team to get all the way to the Super Bowl this season.
Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in the AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals lived up to their nickname of the "Bungles" last season as injuries and unhappiness led to another miserable season in Cincinnati. They had just one win in their first 13 games, but finally decided to show up late in the season, winning their final 3 games.
This team was only 3 years removed from being a top 5 offense. Last season however, the Bengals fell to last in the league in both total and scoring offense. With quarterback Carson Palmer going down early in the season, there was no one to get Chad Ochocinco (Teehee, it was fun typing that) the ball, and he had the worst season of his NFL career. Throw in that they had no running back and had to resort to signing Cedric Benson late in the season to carry the ball and you can see why the Bengals finished last in offense. This season Palmer should be back healthy, and even though leading receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh is gone, Ochocinco is supposed to be motivated and Laveraneous Coles steps in opposite him to get this once prolific passing game back on the map. They'll be throwing almost all the time as Benson is still their primary back, so it will be important for deep threat Chris Henry to spend more time on the field than behind bars.
For once, Cincinnati actually fielded a decent defense. It was the 12th best defense overall and allowed less than 7 points per game in their 3 game win streak to finish the year. Rookie linebacker Keith Rivers was a budding star before getting injured and this year he will be joined on the linebacking corps by his former college teammate at USC, Rey Maualuga. That should improve a run defense that ranked 21st in the NFL last year. If they can put some pressure on the passer, this defense could be a good one.
The Bengals are destined for improvement provided their offense remains healthy and motivated (And if Ochocinco isn't too busy Tweeting to catch passes). If their defense is solid again they'll have a decent season, but their division opponents and schedule will keep them down for another year.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in the AFC North

Cleveland Browns
The Browns were the Cinderella team of 2007, going 10-6 with breakout offensive stars Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards. The clock struck midnight for them though before the 2008 season began, as the Browns finished 4-12, losers of their last 6 games.
Anderson's Pro Bowl 2007 campaign didn't give him too much room for error last year, as he was replaced as the starter by Brady Quinn during the season. It doesn't matter who it will be this year, because they have no reliable targets. Edwards had a monster 2007 season, but caught a bad case of the drops in 2008, leading the NFL by a wide margin, and saw his touchdown catches drop from 16 to 3. Mercurial tight end Kellen Winslow is gone and their other starting wide reciever Donte Stallworth killed a man while driving drunk during the offseason. Needless to say, he won't be contributing for the Browns this year. They're hoping rookie wideout Brian Robiskie can help a passing attack that was 2nd to last in the league last season. Jamal Lewis will once again be the feature back, but entering his age 30 season and running behind this offensive line won't help him improve his numbers from last season, when he led Cleveland to the 26th best rushing offense and the 2nd fewest rushing scores.
The Browns couldn't take solace in their 26th ranked defense either. Despite the contributions of Pro Bowl nose tackle Shaun Rogers, the Browns finished 28th in rushing defense and gave up the 2nd most rushing touchdowns in the league last year. Linebacker Eric Barton will try and improve that, while corners Brandon McDonald and Eric Wright will look to build on the modest success they achieved in 2008. They'll be facing some potent offenses this year though, so a significant improvement is not expected.
The Browns are hoping that new head coach Eric Mangini will be the glass slipper that fits and transforms them into royalty again in 2009, but if that's the case I'll change my name to Cinderella. There are just too many holes for this team to fill, and they have no shot at getting it done this season.
Prediction: 5-11, 4th in the AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Super Bowl champion Steelers last season under head coach Mike Tomlin looked a lot like the squad who won it all 3 years earlier under Bill Cowher. They still ran the ball a ton and dominated games with a suffocating defense. It was good enough to hold off a resurgent Cardinals squad and pick up a 6th championship ring for this great franchise.
The Steelers tried to force the ball down the throats of opposing defenses with their running game, which amassed the 9th most carries in the league last year. Alas, starter Willie Parker was banged up throughout much of the season and rookie backup Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the season early in the year. Pittsburgh still managed to score the 11th most rushing touchdowns and get just enough out of their passing game led by Ben Roethlisberger to get by. Wide receiver Hines Ward had another ho-hum 1,000 yard season and his outside running mate Santonio Holmes lived up to his hype in the postseason with a Super Bowl winning catch in the end zone to seal the deal. This same group will be back in 2009, and with healthy backs will look to improve that 22nd ranked offense.
The defense last year was sensational to say the least. They were the number one defense in the NFL, both in total yards and in giving up the fewest points. All Pro linebacker James Harrison was named Defensive Player of the year in 2008, and he made one of the greatest plays in Super Bowl history when he picked off a pass and returned it the length of the field for a score that proved to be the difference in the game. All Pro safety Troy Polamalu (and his hair) was everywhere at once and Pro Bowl linebackers James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley swarmed ball carriers all over the field. Veteran corners DeShea Townsend and Bryant McFadden have departed, but that dangerous front seven is back to haunt the dreams of opposing offenses.
The Steelers should get a little better on offense with healthy running backs and their defense will be as dominant as ever. They will challenge the Patriots for the right to repeat as champions in 2009.
Prediction: 12-4, 1st in the AFC North

NFL Preview: AFC East

Yesterday I rounded up previews for the NFC predicting that the Giants would once again finish tops in the East. Today, I stay in the East to begin my AFC previews.

Buffalo Bills
The 2008 Bills were the darlings of September, sporting a perfect 4-0 record before the calendar flipped to October. But beginning with an embarrassing 41-17 loss to Arizona in week 5, the Bills lost 9 of their final 12 games to finish what looked like a promising season at a pedestrian 7-9.
The Bills struggled on offense last year, ranking 25th in total offense and 23rd in scoring. Marshawn Lynch led a rushing attack that was a respectable 14th in the league a year ago, and 11th in rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately Lynch is suspended for the first 3 games of this season, but backup Fred Jackson should be a solid fill-in and will use the opportunity to showcase his skills to be in the mix for a larger share of carries when Lynch returns. The passing game really struggled last year, as quarterback Trent Edwards was accurate but not spectacular. The Bills ended the season 22nd in passing offense and 26th in passing touchdowns. Buffalo took a big leap of faith to address their passing issues, signing aging and alleged locker room killing wide receiver Terrell Owens away from the Cowboys. T.O. can still be a very productive receiver, but he is known for his rocky relationships with his quarterbacks, and Edwards isn't even as good as Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, or Jeff Garcia.
The defense was solid for the Bills last season, finishing 14th overall and 14th in scoring. The 13th rated pass defense in particular was good, allowing the 4th fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. The run defense, however, was not as good, giving up the 22nd most yards on the ground and the 24th most running scores. There wasn't a lot of star power on Buffalo's defensive unit last season, and they sought to address that in this year's draft selecting defensive end Aaron Maybin in the 1st round for some much-needed pass rushing. With defensive tackle Marcus Stroud back, the development of middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, and a healthy Donte Whitner at strong safety, this defense should be solid against the run once more.
The Bills have some intriguing pieces that, if they come together, can have a very successful season. But I don't see Terrell Owens making it through the year happy and who knows how much trouble Marshwn Lynch will get into with the law and/or the commissioner? If the offense has another subpar season, the defense isn't nearly talented or deep enough to carry Buffalo far.
Prediction: 4-12, 4th in the AFC East

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were yet another surprise team last season, who snuck up and captured the division under rookie head coach Tony Sparano. In an amazing turnaround, Miami went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, winning 8 of their final 9 regular season games. Unfortunately for the upstart Dolphins, they ran into a tough Ravens team that bounced them from the playoffs immediately.
What the offense lacked in explosiveness last year, they made up for with creativity. Miami unveiled the new "Wildcat" offense in a stunning 38-13 win over the befuddled Patriots in week 3. Ronnie Brown returned from a serious knee injury to star in the Wildcat, which has now taken the league by storm. Quarterback Chad Pennington, who was spurned by the Jets in favor of that one quarterback who sucks at retiring, upstaged his old team in the final week of the season to clinch a division title. Pennington was as efficient as ever, but also lacked big-time playmaking ability and a true number one receiver. The Dolphins finished 21st in the NFL in scoring last year, but had the league's best turnover differential. They're hoping receiver Ted Ginn Jr. can live up to his promise and make big plays on the outside.
Miami's defense last year was a scrappy bunch who finished 9th in scoring defense. Their 25th rated pass defense struggled at times, but still allowed just the 9th fewest touchdowns passes. Veteran Pro Bowl linebacker Joey Porter showed that he had some gas left in the tank with 17.5 sacks and linebacker Channing Crowder made a lot of noise off the field, but also led a run defense that ranked 10th in the league. Longtime Dolphin great Jason Taylor is back with the Fins after a one year hiatus to try and mold himself into another pass rushing outside linebacker across from Joey Porter. Rookie corner Vontae Davis will try and help that pass defense, as will newly acquired safety Gibril Wilson.
Miami still lacks a potent offense, and teams are prepared for the Wildcat this season, so it will be a real struggle for the Dolphins to put points on the board. With their best players on defense really aging, I don't see the defense carrying them to the postseason again this year. The Dolphins overachieved last year, but I doubt it will happen again in 2009.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in the AFC East

New England Patriots
The Patriots' 2008 season ended a few plays after it began, when golden boy Tom Brady crumpled to the field with a shredded knee. Backup Matt Cassel still led New England to an 11-5 season, but remarkably it wasn't good enough to make the playoffs.
Even without one of the premier quarterbacks of this generation, the Pats' historically good offense didn't slip too much with a guy who hadn't started a game since high school under center. New England finished 5th in total offense and 8th in scoring. Despite having no clear-cut go-to running back, the Patriots were the 6th best rushing squad and finished 4th in the league in rushing touchdowns. They added running back Fred Taylor to be their main ball carrier this year, but they'll still give 4 or even 5 different backs touches in a single game. With a healthy Brady ready to go this year, New England should easily surpass their passing marks from last season which had them 12th in pass offense and 13th in yards per attempt. Randy Moss should get back to his record-setting receiving ways with Brady at the helm and Wes Welker should easily reach the 100 reception mark for the third consecutive season. Adding veteran wideout Joey Galloway just gives Brady another reliable target to throw to.
The Patriots fielded a solid defense again last season, finishing 10th overall and 8th in scoring. An ancient linebacking corps held up for perhaps the final time, allowing the 4th fewest rushing touchdowns. The Pats did get beat through the air regularly though, giving up the 2nd most passing scores in the league. Their trio of veteran linebackers have all departed as has veteran safety Rodney Harrison. New England's defense should still improve though as they get younger and faster, anchored by linebacker Jerod Mayo. Adding cornerback Shawn Springs to a somewhat depleted secondary should solidify their back four as well. The Patriots traded away Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour today, but their newfound depth up front should keep them solid there.
Even if their defensive situation remains a bit iffy, it won't hurt them enough to cause significant damage to their season. This offense looks primed to pick up where it left off in 2007, when it broke just about every offensive record in NFL history. The Patriots still have something to prove after having a perfect 2007 spoiled in the Super Bowl and missing the postseason last year for the first time in 6 seasons. I expect them to show no mercy and steamroll opponents into submission with a virtually unstoppable offensive attack. They'll be one of the best teams in the league and a 4th Super Bowl title this decade is well within reach.
Prediction: 14-2, 1st in the AFC East

New York Jets
The Jets were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders last year after bringing in a quarterback that they thought could take them the distance. And for a while things were looking great, as they lost just 1 game between the third week of September and Thanksgiving. With an 8-3 record, the Jets had all but sewed up a division crown, when their quarterback decided he could do it on his own and ended up losing 5 of their final 6 games before deciding to retire....again. (Not that that stopped him from unretiring this year....again) At 9-7, the Jets fell to third in the division and out of the playoffs.
New York brings in another new quarterback, this time a rookie who they traded up in this year's draft to get, Mark Sanchez. With a guy who only started one year at college getting used to the NFL version of the game, the Jets figure to rely heavily on a running game that was 9th in the league last year, 5th in yards per carry, and 5th in rushing touchdowns. Pro Bowler Thomas Jones is 31 now, which is about 131 in running back years, but New York promises to give electric All Pro return man Leon Washington significantly more touches out of the backfield to help Jones out. Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery is the clear number one now with Laveraneous Coles no longer in the Big Apple, and he along with promising young tight end Dustin Keller will try to make things easier in the passing game for Sanchez. The Jets hope that the rookie won't throw even half as many interceptions as the old guy did last year to lead the league in that category.
The Jets had a run of the mill defense last year that ranked 16th overall and 18th in scoring. Their 29th rated pass defense was a mess though, as Pro Bowl corner Darrelle Revis did not get much help. The Jets figure to improve significantly on that side of the ball though, with new head coach Rex Ryan bringing his schemes and some of his personnel over from the formidable Baltimore Ravens defense. All Pro Bart Scott joins Eric Barton, David Harris, and Calvin Pace on a strong linebacking corps that can rush the passer and assist Pro Bowl nose tackle Kris Jenkins on the 7th best run stopping unit from last season. Former Raven Jim Leonhard and veteran corner Lito Sheppard will bolster a secondary that had trouble against the pass.
The Jets will find themselves in a lot of games down the stretch with an improved defense and solid running game, but can an unproven rookie quarterback with limited offensive weapons really win those games and get this team to the playoffs? I'm saying no, but Mark Sanchez will try and continue the success of rookie quarterbacks established by Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco a year ago.
Prediction: 7-9, 2nd in the AFC East

NFL Preview: NFC East

Yesterday, I looked into my crystal ball and predicted that the Vikings would conquer a competitive NFC North. Today the NFC East gets their turn for me to decide their fate....or not. It's been the best division in football the last few seasons, and were one of just two divisions in the NFL last year to not have a team with a losing record (the NFC South was the other one). Here's the outlook for this season.

Dallas Cowboys
Like so many other teams last season, the Cowboys looked to be a lock for the playoffs with an 8-4 record three quarters of the way through the year. That all came crashing down after they lost three of their final four games including the season finale (in which a win guaranteed them a playoff berth) to Philadelphia by a humiliating score of 44-6. Ouch.
The Boys' biggest problem was probably injuries to their star quarterback Tony Romo, and I don't just mean all the pain Jessica Simpson caused him. Romo missed three games due to injury and Brad Johnson did what was expected of a 40 year old quarterback who was never much good anyways, namely, nothing. A midseason trade for wide receiver Roy Williams did nothing to help an offense that was significantly worse than the previous season (13th in yards, 18th in points in 2008; 3rd in yards, 2nd in points in 2007). Diva turned wideout Terrell Owens wore out his welcome after three seasons in Dallas, whining on the sidelines and in the press, and dropping the second most passes out of any player in the league. Owens is gone this year, but that just means that this Cowboys team is one more weapon short on the offensive side of the ball. They're hoping that their running game will carry them provided Marion Barber and Felix Jones remain healthy this year, and that Williams will finally live up to his promise and fill part of the void that Owens' production is leaving. Having one of the top tight ends in football, Jason Witten, unimpeded by T.O.'s need for the ball should help both in the locker room and on the field as well.
Dallas will depend on a good defense that didn't give up too many yards (8th in total defense), but surrendered a lot of points (20th in scoring defense) in 2008. They had an excellent pass defense, ranking 5th in the league and were also 5th in yards allowed per attempt. They were fueled by a frightening pass rush led by All Pro DeMarcus Ware and his ridiculous 20 sacks (Dallas had a league leading 58 as a team). A healthy Terence Newman at corner and the addition of defensive end Igor Olshansky should serve to keep this unit playing at a high level.
The Cowboys come into this year with as much promise as any other year. They boast a ton of firepower on offense and a fast, ruthless, attacking defense. Once again, it will be Tony Romo's play in December (something that has not gone well) that will decide the fate of Dallas' season.
Prediction: 8-8, 3rd in the NFC East

New York Giants
The Giants were on a high in 2008 after giving the Patriots what they deserved in the previous Super Bowl. They were hands down the most complete team in the NFL, and got off to a sizzling 11-1 start before the off-the-field controversies surrounding their top receiver Plaxico Burress, who shot himself in the leg (No, literally) at a nightclub. The G-Men lost 4 of their final 5 games, including in the playoffs to divisional rival Philadelphia.
With or without Plax, the Giants' offense moved the ball down the field like a well-oiled machine. They scored 29+ points in half of their games and finished 3rd in the league in scoring. Eli Manning showed the maturity that won him a Super Bowl, leading a passing attack that finished with the 8th most touchdown passes and 4th fewest interceptions. The running game was unbelievably effective, with two 1,000 yard rushers in Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. The Giants finished 1st in the NFL in rush offense and yards per carry, and 7th in total offense. Burress is gone for good, as is Ward, but Ahmad Bradshaw should step in and be productive as the second running back, and if Brandon Jacobs stays healthy he is capable of putting up monster numbers. The quandry for the offense will be finding some reliable targets for Eli to throw to. There is no clear number one guy as a bunch of young wideouts battle for the role. The one who will get the first crack at the gig is Domenik Hixon, New York's leading receiver a year ago. Steve Smith seems to be the most sure-handed of the group, while the preseason performance of rookie Hakeem Nicks has fans salivating over his big-play potential.
The Giants lost their two star defensive ends from their Super Bowl campaign before the season began (Micahel Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury), but that didn't stop them from finishing 5th in total defense and 5th in scoring defense in 2008. New York showed their depth along the line as they finished 9th in rush defense, and breakout All Pro defensive end Justin Tuck recorded 12 sacks to help out a pass defense that finished 8th in the NFL. Umenyiora will be back healthy this season to add a second standout pass rusher to the line, and the addition of defensive tackles Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty adds even more depth to an outsanding front seven.
The Giants' defense will be their calling card once more. Even without defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, this unit has too much depth and talent to not be one of the top 5 defenses in the league again. The question will be whether Eli can make the necessary plays with a group of unproven receivers, but even if it takes a while to work out the kinks, their potent running game will keep them in games and wear down opposing defenses. A return trip to the Super Bowl is not out of the question.
Prediction: 12-4, 1st in the NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had a wacky regular season that included a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. But while other teams were in freefall down the stretch (Bears, Bucs, Boys), the Eagles won 4 of their final 5 games, including that 44-6 beatdown against Dallas in week 17, to sneak through the back door into the playoffs. Philadelphia made a deep run into the postseason, knocking off the Vikings and the Giants on the road before falling valiantly to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game.
The Eagles were similar to the Giants in their proficiency on both sides of the ball. Donovan McNabb had another love/hate season with the fickle Philly fans and coach Andy Reid. He was benched in the second half one week late in the year, then responded with strong games down the stretch to lead the Eagles to the postseason. They finished the year 9th in total offense and 6th in scoring offense. With McNabb winging it down the field regularly they had the 6th best passing attack and the 8th most passing touchdowns. Rookie wide receiver DeSean Jackson blew his shot at adding another TD to that count with a ridiculous premature celebration, but nonetheless proved himself to be a big-time playmaker who is likely going to be the Eagles' number one reciever this season. Philadelphia drafted another wideout with a similar skill set in the 1st round of this year's draft in Jeremy Maclin and added another versatile weapon recently with the controversial signing of the formerly incarcerated Michael Vick (And if anyone cares, Hank Baskett is still on the depth chart, so televised Eagles games could include a few shots of Kendra in the press box cheering on her man. It didn't work for Tony Romo or Reggie Bush, but then again, their teams were actually counting on them for heavy contributions) The Eagles also drafted insurance for their dynamic but oft-banged up running back Brian Westbrook, selecting tailback LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round. They will try to re-establish a running game that ranked 22nd in the NFL last season and 24th in yards per carry.
The Eagles were once again terrific on the defensive side of the ball last season, finishing 3rd in total defense and 4th in scoring defense. They were equally good against the pass and the run (3rd and 4th in those areas respectively) and were led by Pro Bowlers Brian Dawkins and Asante Samuel in the secondary. As usual, the Eagles brought a lot of pressure with heavy blitzing and their 47 sacks were among the most in the league. Longtime defensive coordinator Jim Johnson tragically passed away earlier this summer, leaving a massive void, and defensive leader Dawkins is also absent. Philadelphia hopes that the losses of their two most important defensive pieces this decade are not too much to overcome.
The Eagles should have an even more high-powered offense this season to take some of the pressure off of a defense looking for a new voice to lead them. If they can find a player or two to step into that role, they have the talent to make another deep run in the postseason.
Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in the NFC East

Washington Redskins
Unfortunately for the Redskins, they play in the NFC East, where despite their great play that had them off to a strong 6-2 start, a murderous schedule had them dropping 5 of their next 6 games, finishing 8-8, and vacationing in January.
The offense was once again carried by Clinton Portis last season, who began the year as the top running back in the game. But after carrying such a heavy burden for the whole year, Portis began to noticeably wear down, and had real trouble getting into the end zone. Washington finished 22nd in the league in rushing scores, despite the 8th best rushing attack. Portis got little help from quarterback Jason Campbell and the passing game, which finished 23rd in the NFL and 26th in passing touchdowns. Campbell is on the hot seat to deliver this season as Redskins fans wonder what if Aaron Rodgers had fallen jsut one more spot to them in the 2005 draft. Campbell doesn't exactly have a full complement of dangerous weapons. Tight end Chris Cooley is one of the best around, but Santana Moss no longer has all the tools necessary of a top receiver, Antwaan Randle El has had little success as a full-time target, and youngsters Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas have yet to develop into real threats. If the Redskins finish 28th in the league in scoring again, expect serious personnel changes to follow.
Washington's defense was yet another NFC East beast, as they finished the year 4th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense. A solid stable of corners led by Carlos Rogers and bolstered by the surprising midseason acquisition of DeAngelo Hall anchored a pass defense that was 7th in the league, and allowed the 6th fewest passing touchdowns. They Redskins didn't get much help on the line with veteran star Jason Taylor, but still ended up as the 8th best run defense. That ranking has a strong chance of improving with the addition of the one-man wrecking crew known as Albert Haynesworth (as much for his ability to swallow running backs whole as for stomping on the face of offensive linemen trying to block him). Rookie linebacker Brian Orakpo joins London Fletcher to control the middle of the field, and hard hitting safety LaRon Landry will also provide solid support against the run.
In a division where teams are superb on both sides of the ball, Washington's lack of an explosive offense really hurts their chances of making it to the postseason. Unless Jason Campbell takes a major stride forward and one or both of their young receivers becomes a major asset to the passing game, the Redskins' inability to consistently score will put too much pressure on a defense that can only win so many games on their own. Expect another year of the Redskins running out of gas down the stretch and spending the offseason looking for an answer to their lacking offense.
Prediction: 7-9, 4th in the NFC East

NFL Preview: NFC North

Yesterday I predicted that the Falcons would rise to the top of an NFC South division that has never had a repeat division champion. Today I head up to the NFC North, which goes from one of the worst divisions in football last year to one of the best this year.

Chicago Bears
Like so many teams last year, the Bears had a chance to make it to the playoffs in the final week of the regular season, but a loss to the Texans dashed their hopes. They finished a respectable 9-7 despite having a less than respectable quarterback and a defense that didn't play up to its usual bone crushing standards.
The offense struggled again last year, but how is that different than any other season in Chicago? Kyle Orton held off Rex Grossman for the starting quarterback gig, but certainly didn't win them any games with his arm as the Bears finished 21st in pass offense and 25th in yards per attempt. It didn't help that Orton didn't have anyone to throw to, as Chicago's No. 1 receiver Devin Hester had previously been a kick returner and reserve cornerback in his career. They found a revelation in rookie running back Matt Forte, but once teams figured out that he was their main source of offense they loaded the box against him. The Bears finished 24th in rush offense, and 27th in yards per carry. Forte should take a step forward in his second season though, and his pass catching skills provide another option for new quarterback Jay Cutler, a major improvement over Orton. Cutler can wing the ball downfield to the speedy Hester who, according to numerous reports, has finally learned how to run routes. Cutler's former college teammate Earl Bennett will furnish him with a trusted target and young pass catching tight end Greg Olsen will look to control the middle of the field with his developing skills.
The Bears defense will try to improve their 21st ranking, and their inability to slow down passing games. Their run defense was still great, ranking 5th in the NFL and 3rd in yards per carry. However, as mentioned before, they put up very little resistance against the pass. They were passed on more than any other team in the league, and with good reason because of that solid run defense, and finished 30th against the pass. Their saving grace was the fact that they finished 3rd in the league in interceptions and 2nd overall in takeaways. Injury problems factored into a disappointing season as well, but if they come back healthy this year, they should be one of the top defensive units in the league again, especially considering they won't be facing too many high-powered offenses this season, and only 2 quarterbacks who threw for 4,000 yards last year.
Assuming the Bears defense will be back to its usual swarming self, the addition of Jay Cutler and development of his weapons should provide them with their first capable offense in many years. If Chicago can win games with both its defense AND offense, they will be a dangerous team with championship aspirations.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the NFC North

Detroit Lions
Last season was the ultimate disaster in Detroit. The Lions proved that it was indeed possible to go 0-16 (Who would have ever thought that we would see a team go 16-0 and then see another team go 0-16 the very next year?? Incredible). The good news? Things can only get better.
Their offense last season was pretty much summed up by their quarterback Dan Orlovsky running out of the back of the end zone for a safety without even realizing it. The Lions finished 30th in total offense and 27th in scoring offense. They passed pretty much all the time since they were constantly behind, but even with the presence of "Megatron", Calvin Johnson, the most talented young wide receiver in the league, Detroit placed 24th in passing and 27th in yards per attempt. They took quarterback Matthew Stafford with the #1 overall pick in this year's draft to give Johnson someone who could actually get him the ball, and it appears that former standout Daunte Culpepper will begin the season as the starter to groom Stafford. Last year rookie running back Kevin Smith came on strong toward the end of the season, but the Lions were still 30th in the league in rushing offense and 28th in yards per carry. Smith has looked great in camp though, according to reports, and running backs make the biggest leap in their second season, so hopes are high for an improvement this year.
Detroit's defense could not have been any worse than it was in 2008. They finished last in total defense and scoring defense, and had trouble stopping either the run or the pass. Teams threw the fewest passes against the Lions, but that didn't stop them from finishing 27th in pass defense and passing touchdowns allowed, largely due to the fact that they gave up the most yards per attempt in the NFL and picked off only 4 passes all season, last in the league. They were passed on the least because they could not stop the run at all. I mean AT ALL. Like if I was running it against them, they couldn't stop me. Detroit finished dead last across the board in rush defense, rushing scores allowed, and yards per carry against. And that's really all that needs to be said.
At least the Lions know they can't be any worse than they were a year ago, but how much better can they be? Their offense looks primed for a significant improvement and their defense has a decent shot at getting out of the cellar, but they play in a loaded division and have to get used to yet another head coach.
Prediction: 3-13, 4th in the NFC North

Green Bay Packers
The Packers' season got off to a messy start last year with the whole Quarterback-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named saga. But after a statement 37-3 win over the rival Bears in week 11, Green Bay was a respectable 5-5. Alas things fell apart quickly after that and they lost their next 5 games, finishing the year at 6-10.
New starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers made it easier for Packers fans to let go of the Master Flip-Flopper, as he became one of the league's top passers throwing for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns. Green Bay was the 5th highest scoring team in the league and finished 8th in total offense, 8th in passing offense, and 5th in passing scores. 2007 breakout star Ryan Grant struggled with injuries and expectations in the first half of 2008, and the running game was a bit stale. Rodgers scored more than a third of the Packers' rushing touchdowns, so you can understand why they finished 24th in rushing scores. A healthier Grant should be solid for the entire year this time around, and Rodgers' second season under the helm should bring improvements in the passing game as well, especially with the development of some young receivers like Jordy Nelson and JerMichael Finley.
The Packers struggled on defense last year, surrendering the 22nd most points in the league. Their run defense in particular was a letdown, as they finished 26th against the run, 27th in rushing scores allowed, and 26th in yards per carry allowed. Green Bay looked to address those issues in this year's draft, selecting defensive tackle B.J. Raji with their top pick to wreak havoc in the backfield. The pass defense was okay, as both starting corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson were selected to the Pro Bowl. Woodson was among the lead leaders in interceptions with 7, and as a team Green Bay picked off the 3rd most passes in the league. The Packers are switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme and moving standout defensive end Aaron Kampman to linebacker, hoping to create more pressure on the quarterback like other teams who use the 3-4.
The Packers should boast an even more prolific offense than they did last year, and their defense should also take a step forward. In any other division this would almost certainly be a playoff team, but competing with two other very talented squads in the North could leave the Pack on the outside looking in come January. Head-to-head matchups and tiebreakers will be important in Green Bay.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the NFC North

Minnesota Vikings
Last season the Vikings overcame shaky quarterbacking and a 5-5 start to capture the North division winning 5 of their final 6 games. Tarvaris Jackson showed some flashes and hoped to take the next step this season, but it appears Minnesota has decided to go in a different direction with its signal caller hoping for more than a first round exit in the postseason.
The Vikings offense begins and ends with sensational running back "All Day" Adrian Peterson. He can break off an 80 yard run on any given play, and he led Minnesota to the 5th best rushing offense in 2008 and 6th best in yards per carry. The quarterback situation wasn't great as the Vikings settled for the 25th best passing offense and 23rd most interceptions thrown, but they did find a couple revelations in deep threat Bernard Berrian and playmaking tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Rumor has it that Minnesota has a new old quarterback in town this season who can do some things with this offense.
The Vikings had an absolutely suffocating defense last year, particularly against the run. Pro Bowl run-stuffers Pat and Kevin Williams swallowed up opposing rushers and led Minnesota to the top ranked rushing defense in the NFL that also allowed the second fewest yards per carry. All Pro defensive end Jared Allen racked up 14.5 sacks and Pro Bowl corner Antoine Winfield helped the Vikings allow the 5th fewest passing touchdowns in the league last year. Minnesota will probably hang their hat on the defense again in 2009. Even though the secondary loses veteran safety Darren Sharper, they get younger and faster and corner Cedric Griffin has another year of experience to help out Winfield in coverage. The Williamses await final word on suspensions that were repealed, but assuming they are in the lineup this scary front seven will blow up a ton of running plays again.
Minnesota can run the ball and stop the run, a formula that has won championships for other teams this decade (Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers). Now with a potentially potent offense threatening to put up enough points to take some pressure off that defense, the Vikings are considered to be serious Super Bowl contenders.
Prediction: 12-4, 1st in the NFC North

NFL Preview: NFC South

Yesterday I previewed the NFC West and had the Arizona Cardinals repeating as division champs. Today I take a look at the NFC South, a division that has been pretty wide open the last several seasons.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were one of the most surprising teams in the NFL last year. After a 4-12 season in 2007 that saw their star quarterback serving a 2 year jail sentence and their new head coach quitting before the season even ended, the Falcons were left reeling at the bottom of the division. But after naming Mike Smith head man, drafting Matt Ryan with their top pick in 2008, and signing running back Michael Turner, the offense was rolling once more and had the upstart Falcons winning 7 of their final 9 games and nearly capturing a competitive South division crown with 11 victories and a Wild Card playoff berth.
Speaking of that great offense, Atlanta finished 6th in total offense led by breakout star Turner who proved he could shine on his own after backing up LaDainian Tomlinson for 4 seasons in San Diego. The Falcons finished 2nd in the league in rushing and third in rushing scores as Turner exploded for 1699 yards and 17 touchdowns (both second among NFL running backs) on his own. Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan kept the offense balanced leading a smart, efficient passing game that limited mistakes and took advantage of opportunities when they arose. Atlanta finished the season with the 5th fewest interceptions thrown and 3rd in yards per pass attempt. Roddy White furnished Ryan with an excellent downfield target and the addition of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez this season should only make this passing game more dangerous as Ryan looks to take a step forward in his second season under center.
Atlanta's defense wasn't great but kept them in games with a bend-but-don't-break mentality. Despite ranking 24th in total defense (21st against the pass, 25th against the run), the Falcons nonetheless finished a respectable 11th in scoring defense. While there are still questions in the secondary, newly acquired linebacker Mike Peterson and rookie defensive tackle Peria Jerry should help improve that 25th ranked run defense. And with sackmaster John Abraham still breathing down quarterbacks' necks and forcing bad decisions, the Falcons look to capitalize on lobbed passes and finish better than 27th in interceptions.
All in all, last season seems to be just the tip of the iceberg for this young Falcons squad. In just the second year of this new system with so many key guys still getting better, Atlanta has high hopes for the 2009 season.
Prediction: 10-6, 1st in the NFC South

Carolina Panthers
Expectations weren't too high for the Panthers going into 2008. Their starting quarterback had major injury concerns, their star wide receiver was suspended at the beginning of the season for sucker punching his own teammate, and they had no clear cut full-time running back. Factor in a declining defense whose best player was outspokenly unhappy, and Carolina seemed to be in rebuilding mode. But in a wide open division, it was the Panthers who seized the moment and came together to produce an eye-opening 12-4 season good enough to win the NFC South.
The running back situation didn't become totally clear until the second half of the season, but it's not like the tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart was a bad combination. Williams in particular was a monster, racking up a league leading 18 scores on the ground and an impressive 5.5 yards per carry. Stewart had a great year in his own right for a rookie backup, compiling 10 rushing TD's of his own. In fact, Carolina led the NFL in touchdown runs, were 3rd in rushing offense, and 2nd in yards per carry. All the success the Panthers enjoyed in the running game allowed Jake Delhomme to minimize mistakes and manage games (something the Panthers wish he would have done in the playoffs instead of throwing FIVE interceptions in a disappointing 20 point home defeat). Carolina had the fewest passing attempts in the league, but with opposing defenses loading up the box to try and contain the run, the passing game was effective, ranking 4th in the league in yards per attempt. Pro Bowl wideout Steve Smith racked up over 1400 receiving yards despite beginning the year serving a suspension, and averaged a whopping 18.2 yards per reception. The Panthers boasted the 7th best scoring offense in the NFL.
In recent seasons, the Panthers have been known for their tenacious defense, but they struggled a bit in 2008, finishing 18th in total defense, 20th against the run, and 23rd in yards per carry. That's not to say they can't get back to form this season, with All Pro linebacker Jon Beason still playing his role as an enforcer and dangerous defensive end Julius Peppers still striking fear into opposing quarterbacks. The departure of cornerback Ken Lucas leaves a hole in the secondary though, as the offenses they face now have an even bigger incentive to avoid throwing in Chris Gamble's direction.
The Panthers still have all the tools they used to assemble a successful season last year, but what are the chances that everything will go according to plan? Jonathan Stewart has an achilles problem that won't seem to go away, and defenses can plan accordingly to focus on DeAngelo Williams in that scary Carolina backfield. That could force Jake Delhomme into more throws, which anyone who witnessed his 5 INT debacle in the playoffs can tell you is not good for this team. Add to that the fact that the Panthers have no reliable targets outside Steve Smith (who enters his age 30 season and hasn't played in all 16 games since 2005) and that Julius Peppers asked to be traded again before the start of this season and the outlook for 2009 looks a little cloudy in Carolina.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in the NFC South

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans had the most exciting offense in the NFL, but as the saying goes, "Defense Wins Championships", and the Saints could not even qualify for the postseason with an 8-8 mark.
Don't put the blame on quarterback Drew Brees though, who fell a mere 15 yards short of the all time single season passing mark, becoming just the second passer in NFL history to throw for over 5,000 yards in one year. And that came even with his two biggest weapons Marques Colston and Reggie Bush missing significant time (not to mention Jeremy Shockey underperforming yet again). However the Saints showed how much depth they had at their skill positions as guys like Pierre Thomas and Lance Moore emerged to score double digit touchdowns. All of those guys return supposedly healthy to the top ranked offense last season in terms of points and total yards, and needless to say in passing yards and touchdowns as well. They finally have a guy capable of carrying the ball consistently in Thomas, and can utilize Bush in a role more suited to his skill set. This should allow the Saints to have more balance in their offense and improve on a running game that ranked 28th in the league last year and 23rd in yards per carry (though they were 5th in rushing scores).
Once again, the final outcome of the season is dependent on a lackluster defense in the Bayou. New Orleans was 23rd in total defense last year and 26th in scoring defense. Darren Sharper comes over this year to try and lead an unproven secondary that loses veteran corners Mike McKenzie and Jason David. They're going to have to rely on the front seven to get more pressure on the quarterback to be successful though. No Saint had more than 6 sacks last season, and former standout defensive end Will Smith got just 3. He'll look to get more this year though, and rookie defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis will help leading tackler Jonathan Vilma shut down opposing running games.
The Saints are banking on that defense improving to support the most prolific offense in the league. A more balanced offensive game plan should help with the Saints sustaining longer drives on the ground. If they can do that, they can ride Drew Brees' gunslinging arm into the postseason.
Prediction: 9-7, 2nd in the NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers looked like a Super Bowl contender three fourths of the way through last season. They were 9-3 and eyeing a division title and 1st round bye in the playoffs. Then the wheels came off as the Bucs lost their final 4 games, getting knocked out of the playoffs in the final week of the season at home against the Oakland Raiders of all teams.
Veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia led a scrappy, balanced offense that scored just enough points to squeak by and let the defense win it for them. No Tampa Bay running back reached the 800 yard or 5 touchdown mark for the season, and Warrick Dunn is out this year as the starter, as is Garcia. Tampa lured Derrick Ward away form the New York Giants, where he piled up over a 1,000 yards rushing despite backing up Brandon Jacobs the entire year, to beef up a backfield consisting of a couple other former starters. It is the quarterback situation that is truly in jeopardy this year. The Buccaneers spent their 1st round pick in this year's draft on Josh Freeman, a quarterback with some upside potential who didn't really do much in college, but it appears that either one of two journeyman signal callers in Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown will get the gig to open the season. Neither one has much promise. Their receiving options aren't the most reliable either, with mercurial pass catchers Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow leading the receiving corps. And oh by the way, the Bucs just fired their offensive coordinator this morning, a week before the season starts. Look out.
Tampa has long hung its hat on the defensive side of the ball, and last year was no exception. The Buccaneers ranked 9th in total defense last season, and were 4th against the pass. However, that stalwart D broke down during their 4 game losing skid at the end of the year, when they allowed over 30 points in 3 of the 4 contests. Perennial All Pro linebacker Derrick Brooks no longer controls the middle of the defense and another starting linebacker Cato June recently suffered an injury that could sideline him for the entire season. Ronde Barber will try to remain an elite shutdown corner, though at 34 years old he may have lost a step or two. Rookie Aqib Talib will try and lock down the other side of the field for a secondary that got no help from a nearly nonexistent Tampa pass rush last season.
All signs point to the Buccaneers being stranded at sea, or at least in the brig of a division featuring three far more talented teams. It won't be a pleasant welcome to the league for young rookie head coach Raheem Morris, as Tampa figures to continue the losing ways it began over the final quarter of the 2008 season, especially when they face all 4 NFC East teams in the first 5 weeks of the year. Yikes.
Prediction: 3-13, 4th in the NFC South