NFL Preview: AFC South

Yesterday I gave the Pittsburgh Steelers a decent chance at repeating as Super Bowl Champions. Today I look at the AFC South, home of the title-holders from 3 seasons ago, the Indianapolis Colts.

Houston Texans
Since coming into the NFL as an expansion team in 2002, the Texans have yet to make the playoffs, but have come painfully close the last couple seasons. The Texans went 5-1 down the stretch in 2008 to finish with their second consecutive 8-8 record.
Houston has developed into one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, ranking 3rd in total offense last year. Their catalyst is quarterback Matt Schaub, who puts up monster numbers on the field, but is often injured behind a woeful offensive line. Schaub missed 5 games for the second straight season but still amassed over 3,000 yards passing to lead the 4th ranked passing attack in the league. All Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson led the NFL in receptions (115) and receiving yards (1575). The Texans got a great year out of rookie running back Steve Slaton, who rushed for nearly 1300 yards to lead a 13th ranked running game. Though Slaton is diminuitive in stature, he still got the job done around the goal line, plowing in for 9 touchdowns. Taking better care of the ball will be a goal for the Texans this season, as they turned it over more than all but 2 teams last year. This offense will once again be dependent upon the health of Schaub. With the weapons he has at his disposal, this will be a high-octane offense once more.
Houston's defense has been its achilles heel since its inception, and last year was no different. Despite having a lot of great individual talent, they ranked 22nd in total defense and 27th in scoring defense. Starting corner Dunta Robinson missed significant time due to injury, thinning the ranks in the secondary, which caused the Texans to give up the 26th most passing touchdowns in the league. Their run defense wasn't much better, ranking 23rd in the league and giving up the 24th most scores on the ground. Linebacker DeMeco Ryans had another outstanding season as the team's top tackler and monster defensive end Mario Williams continued to make Reggie Bush fans look silly, busting through double and triple teams to record 12 sacks on his way to another Pro Bowl selection. The Texans will be counting on young defensive tackle Amobi Okoye to vastly improve his subpar performance from last season and on rookie linebacker Brian Cushing to help out that struggling run defense this year.
Once again the Texans come into the season with high hopes after another strong finish to a season. Whether or not they can take the next step and reach the playoffs depends on an improvement in their defense and Matt Schaub being able to stay healthy the entire year. It could definitely happen, but in a division this tough it will be quite a challenge.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
The Colts got off to a tough start last season, sporting a 3-4 mark at Halloween. Then Peyton Manning got them rolling to the tune of 9 straight wins and a playoff berth. Alas, the Colts had to play a road game in the playoffs, even though their opponent won FOUR FEWER GAMES (How is that fair again??) and went down to the Chargers.
With injuries decimating their offensive line and even affecting Manning during the season, the Colts' usually dynamic offense experienced some regression, dropping to 15th in total offense. All World quarterback Peyton Manning rallied the passing game though, earning another top 5 ranking and his 3rd NFL MVP award. Indianapolis had incredible difficulty in running the ball, and starting back Joseph Addai was banged up all season (Definitely the biggest fantasy bust of 2008). The Colts finished 2nd to last in rushing offense and last in yards per carry. They spent their first round pick in this year's draft on running back Donald Brown to help out and provide a reliable backup in case Addai goes down again.
The Colts defense was actually pretty good last year, ranking 11th in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. Their 6th rated pass defense in particular was terrific, and they allowed just 6 passing touchdowns, fewest in the NFL and just HALF of the second fewest allowed by one team. Pro Bowl defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis gave opposing quarterbacks headaches with their 22 combined sacks. The defense's fate ultimately rests on the questionable health of star safety Bob Sanders, who only played in 6 games last season. If he can somehow stay healthy this year (which doesn't seem likely at the moment), the Colts can feel comfortable with their defense again.
With an all-time great like Peyton Manning at the helm of a great offense, the Colts will certainly be contenders again. But with new coaches making changes that some players, including Manning, have disagreed with and a brittle defense, there may be too many wild cards for the Colts to go all the way.
Prediction: 11-5, 1st in the AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars had a disappointing 2008, finishing 5-11 and last in the South. Six losses in their final seven games led to some shakeups in the offseason.
The offense was mediocre last season, finishing 20th in the league and 24th in scoring. Their normally effective running game dropped off in 2008. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to lead a rushing offense that finished 18th in the NFL and 17th in yards per carry. Taylor bolted for the Patriots in the offseason, leaving Jones-Drew as the primary ball carrier this year. David Garrard will once again quarterback this team and hopes to do it with some better receiving options. Rams great Torry Holt will try to resurrect his career in Jacksonville and young burner Troy Williamson will proved the Jags with a legitimate deep threat.
Jacksonville's normally stout defense took a hit last season, coming in 21st in scoring defense. Their pass defense was their downfall, ranking 24th in the league, 30th in yards per attempt and allowing the 27th most passing TD's. Injuries to star corner Reshean Mathis and top drafted safety Reggie Nelson didn't help, and having those two back healthy will make a difference this season. Run stuffing defensive tackle John Henderson will have to shoulder a larger burden with linebacker Mike Peterson departing. This unit will have to get back to its stingy ways if the Jaguars want to make some noise in 2009.
The Jags offense is certain to be better than it was last year, but what about their defense? In such a tough division, they are no sure thing to do well this season.
Prediction: 7-9, 4th in the AFC South

Tennessee Titans
The Titans overcame a quarterback controversy last season to go on an amazing run and finish with the best record in the NFL at 13-3. They won their first 10 games and 12 of their first 13. It didn't pay off though, as they lost their first playoff game at home to Baltimore.
After Vince Young's alleged suicidal thoughts, the Titans installed Kerry Collins as their full-time starting quarterback. He wasn't great (I mean, he's Kerry Collins) but he got the job done as Tennessee threw the 3rd fewest interceptions in the league last year. Collins spent most of his time handing off to Smash-and-Dash running backs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. The rookie Johnson came up big with over 1200 yards and 9 scores to make the Pro Bowl. White added 15 more TD's to a rushing offense that finished second in rushing scores last season. Johnson has clamored for a bigger role this year, but White lost close to 30 pounds over the offseason (Claiming it to be due to the fact he stopped drinking so much Patron...wish I could lose 30 pounds like that...except with Pepsi of course) and seems motivated to do more than get goal line carries. It's a good problem to have for an offense that still has no reliable passing game.
It was the defense that carried the Titans in 2008, ranking 7th overall and 2nd in scoring. All Pro defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth annihilated offensive lines on his way to eating up ball carriers and All Pro corner Cortland Finnegan anchored a secondary that allowed the 2nd fewest touchdown passes in the league last year. Aging defensive ends Jevon Kearse and Kyle VandenBosch weren't able to generate much of a pass rush and with another year gone by who knows if they can come back strong this season. Haynesworth will have to be replaced on the front line, no easy task, and Tennessee will start 7 players on defense age 29 or older.
This appears to be pretty much the same team that won 13 games a season ago, but it is no small feat to replace Haynesworth in the middle of that line. Without improvement from their passing game, the Titans may be stuck in a rut with so many teams improving around them.
Prediction: 10-6, T-2nd in the AFC South