NFL Preview: NFC West

It's that time of the year again. Football is in the air (and so is like a million tons of smoke from these fires) and I'm doing fantasy drafts pretty much daily because, well, what else am I supposed to do sitting inside all day trying not to fill my lungs with ash? So I figured I might as well sort out my thoughts on the upcoming NFL season going through each team, division by division, leading up to the first game of the year on September 10th. I begin with the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals shocked the world (or just America since the rest of the world neither follows nor cares about this sport) by reaching their first Super Bowl in franchise history and even came within a minute of actually winning it. It was a storybook season filled with folk heroes such as oft-overlooked, God-blessing, aged with wisdom, former grocery-store-bagger-turned-2-time-NFL-MVP good guy quarterback Kurt Warner and superhuman wide receiver with hands stickier than Spiderman's Larry Fitzgerald. In an attempt to dispel the "Curse of the Super Bowl Loser", the Cardinals return the core of that same outstanding offense this season, though star wideout Anquan Boldin is still unhappy about his contract situation and trade talks have not yet completely disappeared. Starting running back Edgerrin James has moved on to Seattle so the Cardinals spent their first round pick in April's draft on Ohio State rusher Chris "Beanie" Wells to take over the majority of the ball carrying duties. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley also departed, but this high flying offense should still be running and gunning at full speed with with Warner and his numerous weapons still lining up in the Desert.
However, the fate of the 2009 Cardinals rests in the not-so-capable hands of their defense. In all the hoop-la over their run to the Super Bowl, people tend to forget that Arizona limped into the postseason losing 4 of their final 6 games. Over that stretch their defense was atrocious, allowing 33 points per game (and if you take out a game against the lowly Rams in which they gave up just 10, they surrendered 37.6 points per game over the other 5) and finished 28th in scoring defense on the year, giving up a mind-boggling 47 points or more on THREE separate occasions. Their secondary in particular was troublesome, despite Pro Bowl strong safety Adrian Wilson patrolling the area. The Cardinals finished a disappointing 22nd in pass defense and dead last in passing touchdowns allowed, as opposing quarterbacks torched them for 36 scores. If they can hold teams to around 20 points a game, their high-octane offense should carry them to another division title and playoff berth.
Prediction: 9-7, 1st in the NFC West

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers' 2008 season was basically the opposite of the Cardinals. They finished the season strong winning 5 out of their last 7 games, and if they had just been able to get the ball across the goal line in the final seconds of a week 10 matchup against the Cards, there may never have been a fairy tale season in the Desert. Also contrary to Arizona, San Francisco clearly hangs their hat on their defense, especially now with Mike Singletary firmly installed as head coach. The Niners only allowed more than 16 points in a game twice over their final 7. Led by stud Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis, the defense will once again look to shut down the run, while improving on their 20th rated pass defense. After a full training camp, Singletary should have his men juiced up to drop the hammer on opposing offenses (I just hope Mike can keep his pants on in the process).
The 49ers' offense has been their achilles heel since they last ventured into the postseason. In particular, their top offensive draft picks have not panned out as both Alex Smith (#1 overall and not even starting anymore) and Vernon Davis have been busts and this year's selection Michael Crabtree remains the only 1st round pick to be unsigned and is threatening to sit out the entire season. This is unfortunate for the Niners, who have had real trouble finding a go-to receiver since the glory days of Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens. Since 2004, 5 different players have led San Francisco in receiving. Between 1980 and 2003, only 4 players achieved that feat (Rice did it 13 times, Owens did it 5 times). But even as the passing game seems to be in turmoil, the Niners actually struggled more last season running the football, even though it seems like Frank Gore was the entire offense. San Fran was 27th in rushing offense, 25th in rushing touchdowns, and 21st in yards per carry. With an improved offensive line, those numbers could rise, and new starting quarterback Shaun Hill should prove to be more dynamic than Smith. If they could just hang on to the football more (dead last in turnovers last season, second to last in turnover differential), their solid defense could be fresh enough to keep them in games down the stretch. If everything falls into place, this could be a team that sneaks up on Arizona and takes the division if they can knock off the Cardinals head-to-head.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in the NFC West

Seattle Seahawks
When Mike Holmgren imagined his final year as a NFL head coach, I'm sure he never dreamed it could be such a nightmare. He went out leading the Seahawks to an injury-ravaged 4-12 disaster season that was more depressing to the city of Seattle than 350 consecutive days without the sun shining. It was the first time in 6 years that the Seahawks failed to make the playoffs. Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Hasselbeck couldn't stay stay on the field and neither could any of his receivers, or his offensive linemen, and Julius Jones proved he can't carry a team any more than I can. The Seahawks finished 28th in total offense and were especially down in their passing numbers (a testament to their ridiculous injury situation) as they ranked 29th in passing offense and 30th in yards per attempt. For 2 consecutive weeks in October, Seattle was held to less than 75 yards passing, and were held to less than 90 in another game as well. Things can only get better this year as Hasselbeck should be closer to his former All Pro self, and new wide receiver T.J. Hoshmandzadeh should prove to be a valuable target. Factor in a healthier receiving corps, the emergence of second year tight end John Carlson, and a healthier offensive line (pending Walter Jones' recent injury) and the aerial attack should be effective once more in the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks also added Edgerrin James to help bolster their running game. Under new head coach Jim Mora and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, Seattle should also see a boost in the rushing attack as those two coaches guided a Falcons team (albeit with Michael Vick scrambling everywhere) to a league-leading rushing offense for three consecutive seasons.
All the improvement on offense will be a huge relief to a defense that was overworked and overwhelmed last season. The normally stout Seahawks defense was run ragged, ranking 30th in total defense and dead last against the pass. The addtion of Ken Lucas in the secondary should fill a hole, and rookie linebacker Aaron Curry will team with Lofa Tatupu to shut down opposing run games. All in all, the Seahawks should be able to take a step in the right direction as they look to get back to their old home in the penthouse of the NFC West.
Prediction: 7-9, 2nd in the NFC West

St. Louis Rams
Gone are the glory days of "The Greatest Show on Turf". If it wasn't for the hapless Detroit Lions, the Rams would have clearly been the worst team in the NFL. The Rams followed a 3-13 season in 2007 with a 2-14 campaign in 2008, losing their final 10 games highlighted by a 44 point annihilation at the hands of the Jets in week 10. I can't pick out any bright spots in the offense or the defense because both were equally abysmal. Let's start with the offense where quarterback Marc Bulger must be terrified to drop back behind an offensive line that can't keep him upright. The Rams were 30th in scoring, 26th in passing offense, 30th in passing touchdowns, and 28th in yards per attempt. Steven Jackson has taken the toll for being the only option on offense, missing 4 games in each of the past 2 seasons following his breakout year in 2006 (I hoodwinked my friend into trading me Jackson in fantasy football in the 2006 preseason for basically nothing and rode the 2400 total yards and 16 scores to a fantasy title). Last season the Rams ranked 25th in rushing offense, 30th in rushing scores, and 25th in yards per carry. The Rams are hoping for better fortunes this season, investing their top draft pick into a new left tackle to help rebuild a terrible offensive line, which should help Marc Bulger actually get rid of the football to his downfield targets. Longtime Rams great Torry Holt is gone, and a pack of unknowns led by Donnie Avery look to revitalize the once high-powered passing attack. If they can do any sort of damage downfield, it'll open up the holes for Jackson to have a bounce-back year and move the ball effectively on the ground.
St. Louis' defense may as well have been cones on the field last year for all the resistance they were able to put up. They ranked 31st in scoring defense and 28th in total defense. They'd like to tell you that they were a somewhat mediocre 19th against the pass, but don't be fooled. They were passed on the second fewest times of any NFL team last season, but ranked second to last in yards per attempt allowed. They were passed on so little because they couldn't stop anyone on the ground, coming in 29th in rush defense, 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed, and 29th in yards per carry allowed. I don't know if this group will show much improvement this season, but they'll need to if they want to avoid being outscored by 233 points again (31st in the league last year). In total rebuilding mode, the Rams have a long way to go down the road back to prominence.
Prediction: 4-12, 4th in the NFC West