NFL Preview: NFC South

Yesterday I previewed the NFC West and had the Arizona Cardinals repeating as division champs. Today I take a look at the NFC South, a division that has been pretty wide open the last several seasons.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were one of the most surprising teams in the NFL last year. After a 4-12 season in 2007 that saw their star quarterback serving a 2 year jail sentence and their new head coach quitting before the season even ended, the Falcons were left reeling at the bottom of the division. But after naming Mike Smith head man, drafting Matt Ryan with their top pick in 2008, and signing running back Michael Turner, the offense was rolling once more and had the upstart Falcons winning 7 of their final 9 games and nearly capturing a competitive South division crown with 11 victories and a Wild Card playoff berth.
Speaking of that great offense, Atlanta finished 6th in total offense led by breakout star Turner who proved he could shine on his own after backing up LaDainian Tomlinson for 4 seasons in San Diego. The Falcons finished 2nd in the league in rushing and third in rushing scores as Turner exploded for 1699 yards and 17 touchdowns (both second among NFL running backs) on his own. Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan kept the offense balanced leading a smart, efficient passing game that limited mistakes and took advantage of opportunities when they arose. Atlanta finished the season with the 5th fewest interceptions thrown and 3rd in yards per pass attempt. Roddy White furnished Ryan with an excellent downfield target and the addition of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez this season should only make this passing game more dangerous as Ryan looks to take a step forward in his second season under center.
Atlanta's defense wasn't great but kept them in games with a bend-but-don't-break mentality. Despite ranking 24th in total defense (21st against the pass, 25th against the run), the Falcons nonetheless finished a respectable 11th in scoring defense. While there are still questions in the secondary, newly acquired linebacker Mike Peterson and rookie defensive tackle Peria Jerry should help improve that 25th ranked run defense. And with sackmaster John Abraham still breathing down quarterbacks' necks and forcing bad decisions, the Falcons look to capitalize on lobbed passes and finish better than 27th in interceptions.
All in all, last season seems to be just the tip of the iceberg for this young Falcons squad. In just the second year of this new system with so many key guys still getting better, Atlanta has high hopes for the 2009 season.
Prediction: 10-6, 1st in the NFC South

Carolina Panthers
Expectations weren't too high for the Panthers going into 2008. Their starting quarterback had major injury concerns, their star wide receiver was suspended at the beginning of the season for sucker punching his own teammate, and they had no clear cut full-time running back. Factor in a declining defense whose best player was outspokenly unhappy, and Carolina seemed to be in rebuilding mode. But in a wide open division, it was the Panthers who seized the moment and came together to produce an eye-opening 12-4 season good enough to win the NFC South.
The running back situation didn't become totally clear until the second half of the season, but it's not like the tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart was a bad combination. Williams in particular was a monster, racking up a league leading 18 scores on the ground and an impressive 5.5 yards per carry. Stewart had a great year in his own right for a rookie backup, compiling 10 rushing TD's of his own. In fact, Carolina led the NFL in touchdown runs, were 3rd in rushing offense, and 2nd in yards per carry. All the success the Panthers enjoyed in the running game allowed Jake Delhomme to minimize mistakes and manage games (something the Panthers wish he would have done in the playoffs instead of throwing FIVE interceptions in a disappointing 20 point home defeat). Carolina had the fewest passing attempts in the league, but with opposing defenses loading up the box to try and contain the run, the passing game was effective, ranking 4th in the league in yards per attempt. Pro Bowl wideout Steve Smith racked up over 1400 receiving yards despite beginning the year serving a suspension, and averaged a whopping 18.2 yards per reception. The Panthers boasted the 7th best scoring offense in the NFL.
In recent seasons, the Panthers have been known for their tenacious defense, but they struggled a bit in 2008, finishing 18th in total defense, 20th against the run, and 23rd in yards per carry. That's not to say they can't get back to form this season, with All Pro linebacker Jon Beason still playing his role as an enforcer and dangerous defensive end Julius Peppers still striking fear into opposing quarterbacks. The departure of cornerback Ken Lucas leaves a hole in the secondary though, as the offenses they face now have an even bigger incentive to avoid throwing in Chris Gamble's direction.
The Panthers still have all the tools they used to assemble a successful season last year, but what are the chances that everything will go according to plan? Jonathan Stewart has an achilles problem that won't seem to go away, and defenses can plan accordingly to focus on DeAngelo Williams in that scary Carolina backfield. That could force Jake Delhomme into more throws, which anyone who witnessed his 5 INT debacle in the playoffs can tell you is not good for this team. Add to that the fact that the Panthers have no reliable targets outside Steve Smith (who enters his age 30 season and hasn't played in all 16 games since 2005) and that Julius Peppers asked to be traded again before the start of this season and the outlook for 2009 looks a little cloudy in Carolina.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in the NFC South

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans had the most exciting offense in the NFL, but as the saying goes, "Defense Wins Championships", and the Saints could not even qualify for the postseason with an 8-8 mark.
Don't put the blame on quarterback Drew Brees though, who fell a mere 15 yards short of the all time single season passing mark, becoming just the second passer in NFL history to throw for over 5,000 yards in one year. And that came even with his two biggest weapons Marques Colston and Reggie Bush missing significant time (not to mention Jeremy Shockey underperforming yet again). However the Saints showed how much depth they had at their skill positions as guys like Pierre Thomas and Lance Moore emerged to score double digit touchdowns. All of those guys return supposedly healthy to the top ranked offense last season in terms of points and total yards, and needless to say in passing yards and touchdowns as well. They finally have a guy capable of carrying the ball consistently in Thomas, and can utilize Bush in a role more suited to his skill set. This should allow the Saints to have more balance in their offense and improve on a running game that ranked 28th in the league last year and 23rd in yards per carry (though they were 5th in rushing scores).
Once again, the final outcome of the season is dependent on a lackluster defense in the Bayou. New Orleans was 23rd in total defense last year and 26th in scoring defense. Darren Sharper comes over this year to try and lead an unproven secondary that loses veteran corners Mike McKenzie and Jason David. They're going to have to rely on the front seven to get more pressure on the quarterback to be successful though. No Saint had more than 6 sacks last season, and former standout defensive end Will Smith got just 3. He'll look to get more this year though, and rookie defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis will help leading tackler Jonathan Vilma shut down opposing running games.
The Saints are banking on that defense improving to support the most prolific offense in the league. A more balanced offensive game plan should help with the Saints sustaining longer drives on the ground. If they can do that, they can ride Drew Brees' gunslinging arm into the postseason.
Prediction: 9-7, 2nd in the NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers looked like a Super Bowl contender three fourths of the way through last season. They were 9-3 and eyeing a division title and 1st round bye in the playoffs. Then the wheels came off as the Bucs lost their final 4 games, getting knocked out of the playoffs in the final week of the season at home against the Oakland Raiders of all teams.
Veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia led a scrappy, balanced offense that scored just enough points to squeak by and let the defense win it for them. No Tampa Bay running back reached the 800 yard or 5 touchdown mark for the season, and Warrick Dunn is out this year as the starter, as is Garcia. Tampa lured Derrick Ward away form the New York Giants, where he piled up over a 1,000 yards rushing despite backing up Brandon Jacobs the entire year, to beef up a backfield consisting of a couple other former starters. It is the quarterback situation that is truly in jeopardy this year. The Buccaneers spent their 1st round pick in this year's draft on Josh Freeman, a quarterback with some upside potential who didn't really do much in college, but it appears that either one of two journeyman signal callers in Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown will get the gig to open the season. Neither one has much promise. Their receiving options aren't the most reliable either, with mercurial pass catchers Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow leading the receiving corps. And oh by the way, the Bucs just fired their offensive coordinator this morning, a week before the season starts. Look out.
Tampa has long hung its hat on the defensive side of the ball, and last year was no exception. The Buccaneers ranked 9th in total defense last season, and were 4th against the pass. However, that stalwart D broke down during their 4 game losing skid at the end of the year, when they allowed over 30 points in 3 of the 4 contests. Perennial All Pro linebacker Derrick Brooks no longer controls the middle of the defense and another starting linebacker Cato June recently suffered an injury that could sideline him for the entire season. Ronde Barber will try to remain an elite shutdown corner, though at 34 years old he may have lost a step or two. Rookie Aqib Talib will try and lock down the other side of the field for a secondary that got no help from a nearly nonexistent Tampa pass rush last season.
All signs point to the Buccaneers being stranded at sea, or at least in the brig of a division featuring three far more talented teams. It won't be a pleasant welcome to the league for young rookie head coach Raheem Morris, as Tampa figures to continue the losing ways it began over the final quarter of the 2008 season, especially when they face all 4 NFC East teams in the first 5 weeks of the year. Yikes.
Prediction: 3-13, 4th in the NFC South