NFL Preview: AFC West

Here we are, at the end of my divisional previews. The last one is the one I care the most about, the AFC West, but unfortunately it's probably also the most predictable.

Denver Broncos
The 2008 season began with much promise as the Broncos won 4 of their first 5 games. However a 4-7 slide, including 3 straight losses to finish out the year had the Broncos missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season.
The offense found itself in plenty of shootouts, but that's right where the 2nd best unit in the league wanted to be. Budding star quarterback Jay Cutler led the third ranked passing attack throwing to talented but problematic receiver Brandon Marshall and company. Marshall caught over 100 passes for the second straight season and rookie wideout Eddie Royal stepped up to catch some big passes. New offensive-minded head coach Josh McDaniels was supposed to take this offense to an even higher level, but the marriage has been rocky to say the least. He alienated Jay Cutler to the point of being forced to trade him to Chicago for Kyle Orton, and was also forced to suspend Marshall for a week just before the beginning of the season for insubordination. Broncos fans are hoping that McDaniels can regain control of this team and unleash the power of this offense that should be strengthened with the addition of rookie running back Knowshon Moreno.
Denver was in so many shootouts because their defense couldn't contain anyone. The Broncos finished 29th in total defense and 30th in scoring defense. They were equally dismal against the run and the pass, ending the year 27th in run defense and 26th in pass defense. The 30 rushing scores they allowed was the 3rd most given up by one team. A healthy Champ Bailey at corner and the acquisition of veteran safety Brian Dawkins should bolster that pass defense and linebacker Andra Davis will help stop the run. The Broncos need this defense to vastly improve if they want to compete in 2009.
The Broncos should have taken the logical step to becoming division champs this year, but the way McDaniels has created bad chemistry by trading away his best player and making his next best player demand a trade as well has a foreboding of another long season in the Mile-High city.
Prediction: 5-11, 3rd in the AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs
It was a horrendous year for the Chiefs in 2008. They finished 2-14 and didn't win a single game outside of the division.
To help boost their 24th ranked offense, Kansas City replaced head coach Herm Edwards with former Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley over the offseason, hoping it will make a difference. Haley decided to fire Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and assume the duties himself. The Chiefs also brought in breakout quarterback Matt Cassel over from the Patriots to finally give them a decent signal caller. However, the Chiefs traded away future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, leaving wide receiver Dwayne Bowe as Cassel's only solid option to throw to. Kansas City's running game wasn't terrible last year, as they were 4th in the league in yards per carry and they will once more turn to Larry Johnson in hopes of him finally staying healthy and recapturing his dominance from 2006.
You know you have a bad defense when you let a medicore Bills offense put 54 points up on the board. The Chiefs finished 2nd to last in total defense and 29th in scoring defense on the year. They weren't much better at stopping the pass (28th) than they were at stopping the run (30th) so clearly they need help all over the field. They're trying to switch to a 3-4 defense, moving defensive end Tamba Hali to linebacker and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey to end. They hope bringing in 3-4 veteran Mike Vrabel will make the transition easier for their other players and that they will at least have a solid linebacking corps with Derrick Johnson and Demorrio Williams joining Vrabel and Hali. Getting used to a new system without improved talent and with a coach who cares about offense are not hallmarks of a great defense though.
The Chiefs are looking at a clear rebuilding year. All they hope to see is their large investment in Cassel pay off and some effectiveness out of their new 3-4 scheme. Chiefs fans might as well start planning for next year.
Prediction: 3-13, 4th in the AFC West

Oakland Raiders
It's hard to believe that the Raiders are just 7 years removed from actually making it to the Super Bowl and having an MVP quarterback and two Hall of Fame wide receivers on their team, but such is the case for a squad that has won just 24 games in the 6 seasons after that game (The same number of wins as they had in the 2 years prior to this stretch). Last year was actually decent for Oakland, as their 5-11 record was tied for the best mark they've had since 2002 and 4 of their 5 wins came against teams with a .500 or better record, including a week 17 upset over the Buccaneers in Tampa to knock the Bucs out of the playoffs.
The Raiders finished the year 29th in both total offense and scoring offense. In Jamarcus Russell's first full year as the starting quarterback, the former #1 overall pick had Oakland throwing for the fewest yards in the NFL as he posted an atrocious 53.8% completion percentage (I watched this guy play, and he has absolutely NO touch on his throws. If he has a guy open 15 yards downfield he can't hit him in stride because with a flick of his wrist the ball sails 30 yards). One thing the Raiders offense did do well though was run the football, finishing 10th in rushing offense and yards per carry. Their triple threat backfield of 1st round pick Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush was quite effective as all 3 of them rushed for more than 400 yards. They should be even better this year if McFadden can stay on the field unhindered by a turf toe problem that limited his tremendous capabilities last season. The Raiders still have no receiving threats outside tight end Zach Miller after passing up a chance to draft Michael Crabtree in this year's draft. Darrius Heyward-Bey may have great speed (and that may be exactly what it takes to actually be able to catch a Jamracus Russell pass), but he was known in college for being a subpar route-runner and dropping a lot of balls, not a good combination for an NFL wide receiver.
Oakland did not fare much better on defense last season, ranking 27th in total defense and 24th in scoring. They were stout against the pass though, as All Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha shut down one half of the field. DeAngelo Hall was suppsosed to take care of the other half, but the Raiders mysteriously cut him midway through the season after signing him to a long term deal just a few months earlier. Oakland put up no resistance against the run, ranking 2nd to last in run defense, 28th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 27th in yards per carry against. Hopefully they can improve in that area after bolstering their defensive line with former Pro Bowlers Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour (though Seymour has yet to report to the team, and frankly, I don't blame him). With a solid young linebacking corps behind them, the Raiders front seven should be somewhat respectable in 2009.
Oakland showed some decent flashes last season with nice wins against good teams. They should be able to take a step forward this season, but a tough schedule will challenge them and they will once again be picking near the top of the draft. The upside is that six wins would get them their best season in 7 years, and that is not out of the realm of possibility for the Raiders.
Prediction: 6-10, 2nd in the AFC West

San Diego Chargers
The Chargers had a roller coaster of a season in 2008. They lost a game in week 2 solely on one bad officiating call that the referee admitted to after the game and found themselves dead in the water at 4-8 heading into December. All of a sudden everything changed as they won their final 4 games (scoring a combined 93 points in their last 2) and Denver collapsed down the stretch, enabling the Chargers to reach the playoffs. They even pulled out a victory over the Colts in the Wild Card round before losing to eventual champion Pittsburgh the following week.
The Chargers offense was a monster last year, scoring the 2nd most points out of any team in the league, but not in the way it has been in the past. San Diego's offense used to be the LT Show, but ranked just 20th in rushing offense last year as LaDainian Tomlinson battled injuries all season. Quarterback Philip Rivers took charge though, slinging the rock around for over 4,000 yards passing and a league leading 34 touchdown passes. He also led the league in yards per attempt and was second in QB rating. Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates had another great year, and wide receiver Vincent Jackson enjoyed a breakout season. Concerns linger this year over the health of Tomlinson, now hitting the dreaded 30 year old mark, but he claims to be feeling as good as ever, and they invested a good deal of money into backup Darren Sproles who proved to be a real good player in his own right. Now with a legit passing game to back the runners up, this offense is poised for another big season in 2009.
The Chargers came into last year with arguably the most feared defense in all of football. But after losing former All Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman to a season-ending injury one game into the season, this defense fell apart, ranking 25th overall and a woeful 31st against the pass. The run defense was a decent 11th, but this unit did not live up to expectations. Merriman begins this season in some more trouble, this time with the law, but assuming he's good to go the Chargers have way too much talent on defense to perform as poorly as they did in 2008. Nose tackle Jamal Williams will once again lead the run defense helped out by rookie linebacker Larry English and safety and top tackler from a year ago Eric Weddle. Meanwhile linebackers and pass rush extraordinaires Merriman and Shaun Phillips will put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and corners Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, and Antoine Cason comprise a very deep secondary. This defense should be back to its stingy ways this season.
The Chargers will win what could easily be the worst division in the NFL basically by default. But don't be fooled, this is one heck of a football team, and the added divisonal wins will pay dividends when it comes time to deciding home field for the playoffs. And San Diego is going to need a few home playoff games if they want to contend for a Super Bowl like they are capable of doing.
Prediction: 12-4, 1st in the AFC West