We're just about halfway through the 2009-2010 NBA season, with most teams hitting the 40 games played mark over the long weekend. Let's take a moment to pause and consider the state of the league as it currently stands. Rankings time!
30. New Jersey Nets (3-37)
I still don't get how a team with as much individual talent as the Nets can't win more than 3 games in 40 tries...especially in the East. I'm still taking the over on 9 wins, but tell me Jay-Z, how do you expect to recruit LeBron to play for this trainwreck???
29. Minnesota Timberwolves (9-33)
This season was clearly doomed from draft day. If new GM David Kahn panic-trades Al Jefferson away (When he's only a year removed from a major knee injury) though, he needs to be relieved of his duties immediately. They do, however, need to bring in someone Big Al can kick it out to regularly. Can anyone on this team make a three?
28. Detroit Pistons (14-26)
The Pistons paid $96 million for the right to acquire Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. They've started a combined 30 games thus far. But you can't put a price on Ben Wallace's rejuvenation right?
27. Golden State Warriors (12-27)
How does Monta Ellis follow a 14-31 performance? If you answered "With a 14-39 performance" you are correct!! Ellis has played all but 6 minutes over his last 4 games. Still regularly playing 45+ minutes a night this deep into the season, is it any wonder that he's an Andris Biedrins-like 11-22 at the line over his last 3? Or 43-110 from the floor over his last 4? Steph Curry has been this year's most underrated rookie though. He's a player.
26. Washington Wizards (14-26)
Washington came into this season loaded with individual talent and some pretty lofty expectations (None more so than mine...whoops). Three months later they're mired in last place in their division (Almost 7 games behind the Bobcats. Ouch.) and they're grossly overpaid/underachieving star player is suspended indefinitely and possibly headed for prison. Time for the Wiz to blow things up and start from scratch. (Please Lord, don't let Antawn Jamison fall in to Cleveland's lap.)
25. Milwaukee Bucks (16-23)
Jennings has been as cold as winter in Milwaukee since that torrid twelve game start, while Redd is gone once again. Bogut has been a rock in the middle though, averaging a 15-10 with 2 blocks. That gives the Bucks a nice point guard-center tandem for their future. It's just too bad there's less than a 0% chance Michael Redd doesn't pick up his $18.3 million dollar player option for next season so they can scoop up a big-time free agent. Man, that warm and fuzzy 8-3 start feels like it came last year or something doesn't it? Oh wait....
24. Philadelphia 76ers (13-27)
You can make an argument that Allen Iverson has turned the Sixers' season around. That argument might not justify his current standing as an All Star game starter though. Iverson's return has seemingly stifled the development of Lou Williams, but Samuel Dalembert has been awakened from the dead. Not even the devastation in his native Haiti has put a stop to the havoc he has been wreaking on the court lately. By the way, I'd vote for Elton Brand's contract for Worst in the League honors.
23. Indiana Pacers (14-27)
The Pacers valiantly survived Granger's injury, yet Indiana's playoff hopes are as slim as ever. Could they blow things up and trade away Troy Murphy or even Granger himself? And what in the world happened to T.J. Ford???
22. Sacramento Kings (15-25)
The slipper has come off of the NBA's early season Cinderella team. Sacto has dropped 9 of 10 even with Kevin Martin back in the lineup. It'll be interesting to see if the Kings hold on to K-Mart or try and flip him for a true point (Jose Calderon anyone?) to let ROY favorite Tyreke Evans run amok at the 2-guard spot.
21. New York Knicks (17-24)
New York has clawed their way back into playoff contention with a 14-10 stretch since that 3-14 takeoff. So far there have been no takers on the Curry/Jeffries contracts. Fans are starting to get restless as it looks less and less likely that LeBron himself (Let alone LeBron and Bosh) will be New York's basketball savior.
20. Chicago Bulls (18-21)
I thought VDN's job was gone for sure after blowing that 35 point lead with 20 minutes left at home to the Kings, but give Chicago credit for continuing to play hard and putting together a nice run that has given them a firm grasp on the East's final playoff spot. Derrick Rose is finally healthy and showing his potential, while Joakim Noah has blossomed into a fine young center. Imagine this team if Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh comes aboard next year. You know everyone in the Windy City does.
19. Los Angeles Clippers (18-22)
Even despite the news that Blake Griffin fell prey to the Clippers Curse and a brutal 40 point road (Can you really call it a road game??) beatdown at the hands of the Lakers, during which they were outscored 73-30 for basically the entire second half, the Clips showed some resiliency by nearly knocking off the Cavs in their next game, and following that game up by taking care of business against the Nets. The Clippers were on the verge of breaking even when they blew that lead against the Grizzlies after being evacuated from the building before they hit a 4 game losing skid, but those 4 games were all played without the services of one Chris Kaman. Yes, that's a big deal.
18. New Orleans Hornets (21-19)
If I had told you before the start of the season that the Hornets would be 2 games over .500 halfway through the season, yet still be in last place in their division, would you have believed me?? Me neither. But even though New Orleans is battling in the toughest division in basketball, they can still somehow sneak into the playoffs. That is, of course, unless they decide to trade away David West or (gulp) Chris Paul to get under the luxury tax line.
17. Miami Heat (21-19)
It makes things easier for Dwyane Wade to suck it up and play when everyone's all a flutter with the theories of LeBron and/or Bosh joining forces with Flash in South Beach next season. (Maybe we would have been better off letting Lamar go to Miami after all.)
16. Toronto Raptors (21-21)
If I were the Raps I'd do a Chris Bosh for Andrew Bynum swap this instant. You can't let Bosh walk away for nothing this summer, and there's no way you can get anything better back in a trade than a 22 year old potential franchise center. Here's the deal. Bosh and Marcus Banks' terrible contract for Bynum, Jordan Farmar, Adam Morrison's expiring contract, and Sasha Vujacic. In addition to a great building block in Bynum (Who pairs perfectly with Andrea Bargnani), Toronto gets back a young point guard who would be much better in their system (And could set up a Calderon trade as well. Remember when I mentioned him for Kevin Martin?) in Farmar, another outside shooter in "The Machine", and Morrison's $5 million expiring contract to free up space going into this summer, plus they save nearly $2 million this year as well. The Raptors can essentially transform themselves into last year's Magic with Bynum as Dwight, Bargnani as Lewis, Hedo as himself, Calderon/Jack/Farmar as Nelson/Alston, DeRozan as Lee, and Vujacic/Belinelli as Pietrus/Redick (Rasho Nesterovic can even be Marcin Gortat). That Orlando team made the Finals last year. Why wouldn't you model yourselves after them?? (By the way, if I were the Lakers, I actually WOULDN'T do this deal. More on that later.)
15. Charlotte Bobcats (20-19)
The Bobcats have been ablaze since the start of the new year, winning 8 of their 9 games thus far in 2010. Stephen Jackson has given Charlotte a go-to guy on offense and Gerald Wallace has sustained his career year thus far. With Boris Diaw showing signs of turning it around and possibly getting Tyson Chandler back healthy soon, the Bobcats could conceivably be the number FIVE seed heading into the playoffs in the East.
14. Utah Jazz (23-18)
Utah has been steadily gaining steam after a rough start. They need to if they want to make the playoffs in an uber-competitive Western conference. The Jazz say for now that they'll keep Boozer for the remainder of the year, but maybe they'd be better off trading him for some much needed wing scoring (Do I hear another potential trade partner for Kevin Martin?). Part of me thinks that the Knicks are making a playoff push solely because Utah owns the rights to New York's 2010 first round draft pick.
13. Houston Rockets (23-18)
The Rockets continue to scratch and claw their way to victory without Yao Ming and likely All Star starter Tracy McGrady (Really NBA fans?? REALLY???) Aaron Brooks deserves some All Star consideration of his own and Carl Landry is a candidate for both Most Improved and Sixth Man awards. Houston is also widely rumored to be in the Chris Bosh sweepstakes, and if they can pull off that deal as well as re-sign Bosh this summer, he would make an intimidating tandem in the frontcourt with Yao to challenge the Lakers.
12. Memphis Grizzlies (22-18)
Call them the anti-Wizards. Memphis has taken their collection of great individual talent and meshed them together to win a lot of basketball games (12 of their last 15). Zach Randolph has been the opposite of his usual cancerous self, Marc Gasol has developed into a great center, and Rudy Gay seems to have picked up where he left off after his promising '08 season. Meanwhile, I've decided that O.J. Mayo can be the next Kobe Bryant. It remains to be seen if he has the insane work ethic and Kobe's overcompetitive gene or killer instinct, but Mayo has the game as well as the physical tools to pull it off. He's already a polished jump shooter with great size and sneaky athleticism, and he has shown flashes of Kobe's defensive prowess. Mayo has grown into Memphis' leader and crunch-time scorer in just his second pro season. Watch out for "The Juice". Or "The Condiment". Or "The Juicy Condiment". Or...okay I'll stop now.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (23-18)
Remember when I told you that OKC would challenge for a playoff spot this season and the Durantula (I didn't make that one up...but I'm not sure if I like it either) would be in the running for his first scoring title?? Well, thank you very much. Here are the Thunder sitting just a half game out of 6th place in the West and Durant lighting it up for a shade over 29 a game (3rd in the league, and just 1 away from tying LeBron for most consecutive 25 point games before turning 22 at 15 straight). I'm not saying it'll continue for the entire second half too, but what if it's the Thunder that end up with Bosh??
10. Phoenix Suns (24-18)
They're going the wrong way (Just 10-15 since that incredible 14-3 start) and have gone from tops in the West to just a game in front of the 10th place team. Steve Nash is still playing at an MVP level and can somehow set his career high in scoring at age 36, but if things keep going south in the Desert, will it be time to trade Amar'e before he can walk this summer?
9. Portland Trail Blazers (25-17)
You've got to hand it to the Blazers. Even with two-thrids of their team injured (Including their coach) and all but 2 players missing at least 3 games thus far, Portland keeps finding ways to win. Whether it's hot shooting from Martell Webster and Steve Blake, or Brandon Roy taking over games, the Blazers have even survived a disappointing season out of LaMarcus Aldridge to hang on to a top 5 seed out West.
8. Dallas Mavericks (27-14)
Despite another Re-Dirk-ulous season out of Nowitzki, the Mavs find themselves sliding in the standings since being embarrassed by a Pau-less Laker team by 35 a couple weeks ago. Losing to the Lakers at home without Pau and an injured Kobe with the Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back coming off a 20 point loss to San Antonio didn't help matters any. On the bright side, all hate on the Jason Kidd for Devin Harris deal seems dead now, and Dallas is still considered a major player in the Chis Bosh trade proposals.
7. San Antonio Spurs (25-15)
Why have people still not learned their lesson?? You do not write off the Duncan/Popovich Spurs. Ever. Timmy D is putting up his usual 20-10 even at a career low minutes pace, while the Spurs' depth has turned into a real force with DaJuan Blair, George Hill, and Roger Mason leading the highest scoring bench in the league. I still think they're the biggest challengers to the Lakers' throne in the West.
6. Orlando Magic (26-15)
What happened to that 17-4 start? Orlando is a paltry 9-11 since, with Dwight Howard seemingly less involved in the offense in every game that goes by. How many more 10-30 games does Vince Carter need to have before the Magic pound it inside to free up their shooters again? It seems like Carter is the one player on this team Stan Van hasn't publicly thrown under the bus yet.
5. Atlanta Hawks (26-14)
Crawford has been a god-send off the bench for the Hawks, covering up Mike Bibby's age and the rest of a mediocre bench. Josh Smith and Al Horford are playing at maximum efficiency and Joe Johnson finally doesn't have to run out of gas by February. The Hawks are praying for a 2/3 seed and a shot at the Celtics in the second round (They're 3-0 against Boston this year.)
4. Denver Nuggets (26-14)
With Melo and Billups back, the Nuggs are set on reclaiming their #2 status in the West. What will get them to #1 though? I say it's more frontcourt help to counter the Lakers' size. Until they address that issue, I don't even see them making it past the Spurs in the postseason, no matter how well Anthony is playing. Props on the Aaron Afflalo signing though.
3. Boston Celtics (27-12)
I know the Celts have struggled mightily as of late, but let's be honest. They're just biding their time until all their big guns are healthy and really they could care less before the playoffs. With Rondo knocking on the door of the Paul/Nash/Williams point guard penthouse, Boston may still be the best team in the entire league when healthy. Kendrick Perkins is quietly having a breakout season and we've already seen what that defense can do with all the pieces in place. If only Rasheed Wallace was anywhere close to in-shape...
2. Los Angeles Lakers (32-9)
Even with the best record in the league, they have to be considered second to Cleveland at this point after the Cavs beat them on Chrismas in L.A. by 15 with Pau playing. Back to the Bynum/Bosh scenario. Here's why I hesitate to pull the trigger if I'm the Lakers. Giving up Bynum makes the Lakers too finesse. They lose their biggest advantage over their competition. We saw what the Celtics did to a soft Lakers squad two years ago. Losing some toughness would not only make them susceptible to Boston again, but also to San Antonio and even Denver and Dallas in the West. Bosh and Gasol are almost the same player. Pau is clearly higher on the pecking order than Bynum, but if Bosh joins the team, who becomes the #2 option? How does that affect the other player? Adding Bosh essentially takes Lamar Odom entirely out of the equation. With Bynum, Odom knows he'll be called on for about 30 minutes a game plus crunch-time duties. But how do you justify playing him over Bosh? Bringing him in could kill Odom's value, and remember he just signed a long-term deal last summer. Bosh doesn't play much defense or protect the rim, which is Bynum's biggest contribution to the squad and something that makes the Lakers nearly unbeatable when they have it. Finally, there's the AM-PM theory (Too Much Good Stuff). It killed the Lakers in 2004 against the Pistons. Something similar may happen against Boston or Cleveland in this year's Finals. The Lakers have a good thing going right now. There's no reason to tinker with it, even if you want to prevent a rival team from acquiring Bosh.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (32-11)
Two words: LeBron James. 'Nuff said. But seriously, Cleveland is clicking just like they did last season. They looked pretty near unbeatable against the Lakers on Christmas. If they can flip Shaq or Z for a guy like Antawn Jamison or Troy Murphy, they may not only win the title this year, but hang on to LeBron and be in position to win every year in the near future. This ranking will be put to the test right away as the Lakers come to town starting their marathon 8 game road trip this Thursday in Cleveland.
All Star Weekend
All Star Weekend is right up there as one of my favorite weekends of the year. Just sit back and be entertained by basketball all weekend. But to be honest, it needs to be spruced up a little bit. Here's what needs to happen.
Rookie Challenge
Does anyone even watch this game? I hope they do because it's actually pretty entertaining. It's not always indicative of a player's abilities (I remember Daniel Gibson, Kyle Korver, and Wally Sczerbiak lighting it up in this game), though some rising stars really come out in this game (Amar'e Stoudamire, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant). Here are my picks for the teams this year:
Rookies
Starters:
G- Brandon Jennings, Bucks
G- Tyreke Evans, Kings
G/F- James Harden, Thunder
F- Omri Casspi, Kings
C- DaJuan Blair, Spurs
Reserves:
G- Stephen Curry, Warriors
G- Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves
G- Ty Lawson, Nuggets
F- Taj Gibson, Bulls
Sophomores
Starters:
G- Derrick Rose, Bulls
G- O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies
F- Michael Beasley, Heat
F- Kevin Love, Timberwolves
C- Brook Lopez, Nets
Reserves:
G- Russell Westbrook, Thunder
G- Eric Gordon, Clippers
F- Danilo Gallinari, Knicks
C- Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
H-O-R-S-E
I loved that they put this contest in All Star Weekend. Too bad nobody saw it last year, when after a little warming up Kevin Durant put on a show. I say take out the stupid Shooting Stars contest and kick off Saturday Night with this event. Here are the contestants (I'm upping it to 4):
-Kevin Durant, Thunder
-Kobe Bryant, Lakers
-Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
-LeBron James, Cavaliers
Durant is back to defend his crown, and the other guys are all big time shotmakers. You pull in the audience from the get-go with your superstars who will be in a casual, fun setting and should definitely all be miked up. Maybe LeBron won't back out of this event.
Skills Challenge
I like it. It stays. Here's who's in:
-Derrick Rose, Bulls
-Brandon Jennings, Bucks
-Russell Westbrook, Thunder
-Monta Ellis, Warriors
Does it get any quicker and more athletic than that??
Three Point Shootout
I say let's shake it up. You have individual and team components. For the individual, you pick 4 guys, it's one round. Standard rules, with money balls, with one wrinkle. You get bonus points for finishing faster. One extra point for each 2 seconds you come in under time. This speeds up the individual part of the competition so we can get to the team component, as well as adds intrigue to the event and highlighting the art of the quick release. The participants:
-Steve Nash, Suns
-Ray Allen, Celtics
-Danilo Gallinari, Knicks
-Kevin Martin, Kings
For the team component it goes like this. We take the top 4 most prolific three point shooting teams. This is determined by a simple formula. Add up the ranks of each team for threes made and attempted per game, as well as three point percentage. The 4 lowest scores are our teams. This year those teams would be:
1. Phoenix Suns (scored an 8)
2. Orlando Magic (scored a 9)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (scored a 19)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (scored a 20)
It goes 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3, then the winners meet in the finals. One team shoots at each basket at the same time to speed things up. Each team gets 4 shooters, and they shoot just one after the other as each one finishes. We have a running clock of 3 minutes (averages 45 seconds per shooter) which adds an interesting time component and teams will have to strategize as to when to put each shooter, which could intrigue fans as they see who each team thinks is a better shooter than whom. Here's what I think the rosters would be (Not necessarily in that order):
Suns- Nash, Dudley, Richardson, Frye
Magic- Lewis, Redick, Pietrus, Nelson
Bucks- Delfino, Ilyasova, Jennings, Ridnour
Cavaliers- Williams, Parker, Gibson, West
In the event of a tie, each team will send out one player to shoot from any rack he wants to with a 12 second time limit and the a 1 point bonus for each second under he finishes. With this system we determine who best individual shooter is AND who the best shooting team is...arguably.
Slam Dunk Contest
The Dunk Contest is way too long these days. It's more anticipation than satisfaction. Time to rectify that. It's simple: 2 rounds, 1 dunk each in the first round, 2 dunks each in the finals. If you miss a dunk, you have one make-up per attempt. There's a 24 second clock in which you have to attempt a dunk or it counts as a 0. For the participants, you get two established players (One of which should be a consensus top 15 guy, a superstar to keep the audience tuned in) and two young guns who will put the veterans' pride at stake while also showcasing their skills. Here's who I would have this year:
-LeBron James, Cavaliers (Here's your top 15 guy/established player)
-Gerald Wallace, Bobcats (Your other established player)
-Shannon Brown, Lakers (One young guy)
-DeMar DeRozan, Raptors (Other young guy)
So it's basically the NBA got the field right, with the exception of LeBron over Nate Robinson who I hope everyone is tired of. I know I am. You've got to throw some money into this thing to make the top players go for it. And absolutely no dunk-ins. We need less Dunk Contest, not more of it.
All Star Game
I wouldn't change anything about the actual format of the game, but the balloting needs to change. First of all, you can't put anyone on the ballot who you know is going to miss extended time before the season starts, and if they miss extended time during the season you also take them off the ballot (The Tracy McGrady Rule). You put every relevant guy on the ballot regardless of who else on his team plays that position (The Chris Kaman rule). You also relax the position eligibility. You give people the right to choose what slot they want to put a player in if he can play at guard or forward or forward or center (The Tim Duncan Rule). Under those conditions, here are my teams:
East
Starters:
G- Allen Iverson, Sixers (Just kidding...calm down everyone. This spot really goes to Rajon Rondo)
G- Dwyane Wade, Heat
F- LeBron James, Cavaliers
F- Chris Bosh, Raptors
C- Dwight Howard, Magic
Reserves:
G- Mo Williams, Cavaliers
G- Joe Johnson, Hawks
F- Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
F- Josh Smith, Hawks
C- David Lee, Knicks
Wild Cards:
G/F: Paul Pierce, Celtics
F- Kevin Garnett, Celtics
West:
Starters:
G- Steve Nash, Suns
G- Kobe Bryant, Lakers
F- Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
F- Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
C- Tim Duncan, Spurs
Reserves:
G- Chris Paul, Hornets
G- Brandon Roy, Blazers
F- Kevin Durant, Thunder
F- Pau Gasol, Lakers
C- Chris Kaman, Clippers
Wild Cards:
G- Deron Williams, Jazz
F- Zach Randolph, Grizzlies (I can't believe it either)
Midseason Awards
Rookie- Tyreke Evans, G, Kings: 20.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.5 SPG
Coach- Lionel Hollins, Grizzlies: 22-18 record with the GRIZZLIES!!!
Most Improved- Carl Landry, F, Rockets: 16.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 56% FG, 85% FT
Sixth Man- Jamal Crawford, G, Hawks: 30.7 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 2.7 APG, 84%FT
Defensive- Marcus Camby, C, Clippers: 31.5 MPG, 11.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 2.1 BPG
MVP- LeBron James, F, Cavaliers: 29.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG
Finals Prediction
Still got the Lakers over the Celtics, though the Cavs may change that soon. Enjoy the second half of the season everybody!
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Saturday, January 16, 2010
NFL Divisional Round
We head into the Divisional round of the playoffs with matchups that, at least on paper, look a lot tastier than those last week. I don't see as many lopsided contests, yet I doubt any game will live up to the incredible excitement and dramatic intrigue of the Packers-Cardinals tilt last Sunday. Before diving into the picks for this week, a quick word about the Duel in the Desert from last weekend.
One angle that nobody seems to have covered this week is the final 9 seconds of regulation, after Neil Rackers yanked a potential game-winning field goal. The Packers had the ball at about their own 25 yard line with 2 timeouts remaining and chose to take a knee and go into overtime (Where they lost despite winning the coin toss). What I don't understand is why they didn't take one shot down the field to try and clinch the game in regulation. Think about it. The Cardinals defense couldn't lift a finger to slow down Aaron Rodgers' aerial assault the entire second half. He had already torched Arizona's secondary for 400+ yards and Greg Jennings was making great catches all over the field. Why not heave one downfield for him? A 40 yard gain puts you in field goal range. With 9 seconds and 2 timeouts, there was plenty of time for a hail mary to give Mason Crosby a chance to finish it right then and there. Even if they couldn't get a completion, they may have still gotten a pass interference penalty out of it, producing the same result. I understand the concern of turning the ball over, but an interception that far down the field is not likely to be returned for a score (Most pick-sixes are a result of a defensive player jumping a short route and already having a full head of steam down the field without most opposing players having a lot of space to bring them down). It's better to take a shot down the field and try and win the game on your own terms instead of relying on chance to win a coin toss (Which still couldn't get the Packers the win). Maybe if Green Bay had attempted to go for the win in regulation, they would be the ones moving on to play the Saints this week. Just a thought...now on to the picks!
Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
The Cardinals are conjuring up images of last year's Super Bowl team with their offensive outburst a week ago. With Beanie Wells giving the Cardinals a decent running game and Early Doucet emerging as yet another weapon at Kurt Warner's disposal, it seems like there's no way a stumbling Saints defense can hold this offense under 40 points. On the flipside, that Cardinals defense looked downright awful against Green Bay, and let's not forget that this Saints offense was on a historic pace before late-season struggles. Those struggles might have been overstated in recent weeks, as New Orleans hasn't won a game in over a month, but I think that boisterous Bayou home crowd will carry them to a victory this week.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
Just like the Ravens' matchup last week, the Colts represent another team that Baltimore almost (And probably should have) beat in the regular season. The Colts, meanwhile, still haven't lost this season with their best guys playing the entire game. Indy knows that they have to stop the run, and will load up the box to try and make Joe Flacco beat them (Something New England failed to exploit). Plus there's the Manning factor, and I think the rest will benefit the Colts, especially their banged up defense. Home field holds here too.
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
At first glance, this game looks like a blowout win for the Chargers. But when you break it down, this is actually the matchup the Jets were praying they got. As Cedric Benson proved last week, the Jets really struggle to shut down the run, but the Chargers are by far the worst rushing team in the league. Philip Rivers has led a devastating passing attack for San Diego, but New York has the league's best pass defense and top cover corner, along with a myriad of blitz packages. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have the league's number one rushing offense, while the Chargers have a less-than-mediocre run defense. The Raider Rule also cannot be applied here, as these teams went a combined 3-0 against Oakland this year. In the end, I believe the difference will be the play of Mark Sanchez. No way the rookie puts up back to back stellar performances on the road in the postseason. He makes a mistake or two and the chargers capitalize for the victory.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys are the darlings of the league after reversing their December doom this season. The Vikings stumbled to the finish line, as Brett Favre once again played significantly worse late in the year. I've thought all along that this would happen and the demise of Favre would also signal the end of the Vikings' run this season. I predicted before the year started that Minnesota would go 12-4 and win the division but not win a playoff game, and I'm sticking to that hypothesis. I think Dallas gets up early, Favre tries to get the Vikes back in the game on his own instead of using Adrian Peterson, and ends up costing Minnesota the game down the stretch. Dallas moves on.
One angle that nobody seems to have covered this week is the final 9 seconds of regulation, after Neil Rackers yanked a potential game-winning field goal. The Packers had the ball at about their own 25 yard line with 2 timeouts remaining and chose to take a knee and go into overtime (Where they lost despite winning the coin toss). What I don't understand is why they didn't take one shot down the field to try and clinch the game in regulation. Think about it. The Cardinals defense couldn't lift a finger to slow down Aaron Rodgers' aerial assault the entire second half. He had already torched Arizona's secondary for 400+ yards and Greg Jennings was making great catches all over the field. Why not heave one downfield for him? A 40 yard gain puts you in field goal range. With 9 seconds and 2 timeouts, there was plenty of time for a hail mary to give Mason Crosby a chance to finish it right then and there. Even if they couldn't get a completion, they may have still gotten a pass interference penalty out of it, producing the same result. I understand the concern of turning the ball over, but an interception that far down the field is not likely to be returned for a score (Most pick-sixes are a result of a defensive player jumping a short route and already having a full head of steam down the field without most opposing players having a lot of space to bring them down). It's better to take a shot down the field and try and win the game on your own terms instead of relying on chance to win a coin toss (Which still couldn't get the Packers the win). Maybe if Green Bay had attempted to go for the win in regulation, they would be the ones moving on to play the Saints this week. Just a thought...now on to the picks!
Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
The Cardinals are conjuring up images of last year's Super Bowl team with their offensive outburst a week ago. With Beanie Wells giving the Cardinals a decent running game and Early Doucet emerging as yet another weapon at Kurt Warner's disposal, it seems like there's no way a stumbling Saints defense can hold this offense under 40 points. On the flipside, that Cardinals defense looked downright awful against Green Bay, and let's not forget that this Saints offense was on a historic pace before late-season struggles. Those struggles might have been overstated in recent weeks, as New Orleans hasn't won a game in over a month, but I think that boisterous Bayou home crowd will carry them to a victory this week.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
Just like the Ravens' matchup last week, the Colts represent another team that Baltimore almost (And probably should have) beat in the regular season. The Colts, meanwhile, still haven't lost this season with their best guys playing the entire game. Indy knows that they have to stop the run, and will load up the box to try and make Joe Flacco beat them (Something New England failed to exploit). Plus there's the Manning factor, and I think the rest will benefit the Colts, especially their banged up defense. Home field holds here too.
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
At first glance, this game looks like a blowout win for the Chargers. But when you break it down, this is actually the matchup the Jets were praying they got. As Cedric Benson proved last week, the Jets really struggle to shut down the run, but the Chargers are by far the worst rushing team in the league. Philip Rivers has led a devastating passing attack for San Diego, but New York has the league's best pass defense and top cover corner, along with a myriad of blitz packages. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have the league's number one rushing offense, while the Chargers have a less-than-mediocre run defense. The Raider Rule also cannot be applied here, as these teams went a combined 3-0 against Oakland this year. In the end, I believe the difference will be the play of Mark Sanchez. No way the rookie puts up back to back stellar performances on the road in the postseason. He makes a mistake or two and the chargers capitalize for the victory.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys are the darlings of the league after reversing their December doom this season. The Vikings stumbled to the finish line, as Brett Favre once again played significantly worse late in the year. I've thought all along that this would happen and the demise of Favre would also signal the end of the Vikings' run this season. I predicted before the year started that Minnesota would go 12-4 and win the division but not win a playoff game, and I'm sticking to that hypothesis. I think Dallas gets up early, Favre tries to get the Vikes back in the game on his own instead of using Adrian Peterson, and ends up costing Minnesota the game down the stretch. Dallas moves on.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
NFL Wild Card Round
Are you ready for some football? It's being served up playoffs style this weekend as the road to the Super Bowl kicks off with the Wild Card Round. Four games, three rematches of the final week of the regular season, two days, one blog post that has all the answers.
It’s as simple as this: the Bengals lost to the Raiders. The Jets, on the other hand, blew out
Stop me when this sounds familiar. The Eagles lost to the Raiders. The Cowboys, on the other hand, blew out
These two met once early in the season (also in New England) and the Patriots survived by less than a touchdown in one of
In the final Week 17 rematch, the Packers head back to the desert to take on the Cardinals. They’ve already triumphed in
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