2009 NBA Finals Preview

You know you've been waiting for it. I know you've been waiting for it. We all know Kobe and Dwight have been waiting for it. Introducing the 1st annual NBA Finals SuperDuper Blowout Extravaganza Preview. Without further ado, let's jump into it:

First, my thoughts on the teams:

Los Angeles Lakers
What more need be said? The Lakers are the class of the NBA, making a record 30th NBA Finals appearance, their second consecutive one. As a fan, this season has been riveting, fun, and altogether frustrating. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this team is the best in the NBA, and it's not even close. The depth of talent and skill on the roster is unmatched by anyone in the league (Sun Yue isn't even on the active roster for crying out loud!!!). So why the frustration? This team rarely ever played up to its potential. Maybe being so good is a bad thing. After a red-hot start, the Lakers began to seem bored out there, always playing down to their competition. Within a couple of weeks, defense became an afterthought. After a month, the bench decided to stop showing up. Lamar Odom was lost in his new role as a bench player. The Lakers couldn't decide how to share minutes at the small forward position between Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, and Vladimir Radmonovic. Andrew Bynum was interested in only points and minutes, not rebounding and defense (turned out what he was best at was fouling). After breakout campaigns off the bench a year ago, Jordan Farmar was very inconsistent at best and Sasha Vujacic looked more like Sasha Pavlovic out there. By midseason, Andrew Bynum was out again and the Lakers were beginning their bad habit of blowing huge leads, punctuated by a blown 20 point lead in the 4th quarter against the CLIPPERS where Kobe had to come back in the game after he was already icing his knees on the sidelines. Though the Lakers once again finished atop the Western Conference standings, they missed out on a golden opportunity to claim the best record in the league and home court advantage throughout the postseason. The bright spots for this team: trading for Shannon Brown who has blossomed in this playoffs into a solid bench player, Trevor Ariza's emergence as a capable starter, a sparkling 4-0 record against the Cavaliers and Celtics, and Luke Walton benching himself late in the season (thank you Luke). Their road to the Finals was a tough one, and that may have been exactly what the Lakers needed going in to this series. After finishing off the Jazz in 5 games, the Lakers lost their home court advantage to the Rockets in game 1 of that series. After taking it back, the Lakers lost an embarrassing game in Houston, trailing by as many as 29 as the Rockets evened the series at 2 games apiece. The Lakers responded with a 40 point home beatdown in game 5, before laying another egg in game 6. Though they took game 7 comfortably, the Lakers were exposed, and their focus was still not all the way there. Another tough series in the conference finals against the Nuggets found the Lakers playing much harder and more consistently, clinching a finals berth with a strong performance in Denver in game 6. (For more on that series check the archive for my "Lakers-Nuggets series recap")

Orlando Magic
Let me start by saying this. All throughout the season and even the playoffs, I thoroughly distrusted this team. I could not even entertain the thought of a team who relied heavily on 3-point shooting making the finals. And when all star point guard Jameer Nelson went down with a supposed season-ending injury, I figured that just about sealed the Magic's fate. But the Magic surprised me. After trading for point guard Rafer Alston, the Magic went on a run that saw them briefly surpass the Celtics for second place in the Eastern Conference standings. They would finish in 3rd, just one win shy of the franchise record. All star center Dwight Howard was named the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year and swingman Rashard Lewis was also named to the All Star team. Rookie Courtney Lee made a splash, earning the starting shooting guard role for the team, and Hedo Turkoglu followed up his Most Improved Player award from last season with another stellar campaign. The Magic got off to a rocky start in the postseason, dropping their first game at home to the Philadelphia 76ers. I wasn't surprised. But they showed their resiliency by closing out the 76ers in Philly without the services of Howard, who was suspended for throwing an elbow, or Lee, who was in the hospital due to said elbow. Their next series pitted them against the aging, tired, banged up, Kevin Garnett-less Celtics. The series started promisingly for Orlando, as they got out to a 28 point lead in Boston in game 1. In the blink of an eye, that lead was cut to 3, and though the Magic held on, I saw it as a sign that this team was not ready to advance. The Celtics won 3 of the next 4 games to take a 3-2 series lead. Boston was 32-0 all time after leading a series 3-2. I was ready to announce the series over. But the Magic again showed their steely resolve, beating the Celtics in Boston in game 7 to move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. There they met the heavily favored Cleveland Cavaliers, featuring reigning MVP LeBron James. I already had the Cavs as a lock for the finals, so it came as no surprise that the Cavs owned a 15 point lead by halftime of game 1. But the Magic proved resilient once more, coming back to win the game on a Rashard Lewis three in the final seconds. Okay, it was just a fluke I thought. And the Cavs were going to make sure, taking a commanding 23 point first half lead in game 2. But the Magic came back yet again, taking the lead late in the game. Only a LeBron James miracle three at the buzzer kept the Magic from having a 2-0 series lead heading back to Orlando. By now, I was convinced. This Magic team could play with the best of them. They were an absolute matchup nightmare for any team in the NBA. Orlando closed out the Cavs in 6 games, and earned their second ever trip to the NBA Finals. The bad news? They have to play an even better team in the Lakers. The good news? The Magic won both regular season meetings against those very Lakers.

Now let's breakdown the matchups:

Andrew Bynum vs. Dwight Howard
This could prove to be the most important matchup in the series. For all the hoopla of Dwight Howard being a superstar, there's a lot more hype than results. On the defensive end, Dwight is a monster, grabbing every rebound that comes his way, blocking shots (he led the league in both boards and blocks), and protecting the rim. Howard dominated the paint, changing shots at the rim, and making opponents think twice about driving to the basket. This helped out his less defensively inclined teammates to play up on the ball and contest long jump shots that opponents normally would not settle for. Much has been said about getting Howard the ball on the offensive end. A player as great as him should surely get the ball more than the Magic give it to him. Well, the Magic aren't stupid. There's a reason they don't give Howard the ball on every possession. He has no offensive game that doesn't include the word "dunk". From inside of 3 feet, he's an unstoppable force waiting to make a poster out of some helpless defender. From outside that range, he's got nothing. He has no low post moves. His signature move is running across the lane and awkwardly hurling the ball at the rim at 97 mph. No touch, no form, no good. Howard was able to dominate the Cavs' soft frontline because he was able to get position next to the basket and dunk the ball. He was way too athletic for Zydrunas Ilgauskas or Ben Wallace to stop. However, in the Celtics series, Howard was rendered ineffective for long stretches, as Kendrick Perkins played him physical and did not allow Howard to set up shop right under the rim. The Lakers should force Andrew Bynum to watch tapes of how Perkins defended Howard until all Bynum can see in his mind is the back of Dwight Howard's jersey being pushed away from the basket. Bynum has the size and the strength to keep Howard out of the paint and force him to take bad running hook shots that have almost no chance of going in. And on any opportunities Howard does get at the rim, Bynum should immediately wrap him up and send him to the foul line, where Howard's free throw shooting woes have been well documented. While it seems like Bynum is the perfect kryptonite for Howard's Superman act (and he should be), two problems are foreseeable. 1.) Bynum has, for some reason, decided that his role on the team should be to get the ball 12 feet from the basket and try and score, when, in fact, his REAL role is the one Howard has perfected for the Magic, namely, dominate the paint and the boards on defense, and get in position for an easy basket on offense. In the last 2 games of the conference finals, Bynum grabbed a grand total of 3 rebounds in 41 minutes of action. That's a 7 foot guy playing within a few feet of the basket getting just 3 rebounds in 41 minutes. Hell, I could probably get 3 rebounds if i stood next to the basket for 41 minutes (rethinking that last statement....well....it's a possibility....maybe). Rebounding is all about effort, and Bynum hasn't shown much of that with those performances. 2.) Bynum has shown an incredible propensity to pick up fouls, and that shouldn't change if he's guarding Dwight Howard. Earlier this postseason, Bynum fouled out of a game in SEVEN minutes. Think about that. It takes him 41 minutes to grab 3 rebounds, but 6 fouls in 7 minutes is not a problem. Bynum's inability to stay on the court and check Howard could lead to another big series for Superman.

Pau Gasol vs. Rashard Lewis
An intriguing matchup of the second bananas. Both these power forwards made the all star team of their respective conferences this season, but the similarities end there. Lewis is 6-10 but plays like a perimeter guy, among the league leaders in 3-pointers made and attempted during the season. In fact Lewis used to play the small forward position before joining the Magic last season. Lewis creates matchup problems for opposing power forwards with his ability to step out on the floor and hit jump shots. Most bigs are afraid to come out and guard him, worried about his quickness and ability to blow past them to the basket. Putting a smaller guy on him gives him the option of posting up or shooting over them. Gasol, meanwhile, is a 7 footer who also plays at center for a significant amount of time. Gasol's offensive skills and touch around the basket are among the best in the league. His ability to either back down his defender, drive past them, or shoot over them makes him a tough cover. Also his vision and passing ability creates easy shots for his teammates. While he isn't the most physical specimen, Gasol's length enables him to alter shots at the rim and grab rebounds. How do these two stack up against each other? While Lewis is lanky himself, Gasol's size advantage takes away Lewis' post up game. Look for Lewis to camp out by the 3-point line and force Gasol away from the basket, where he is an excellent help defender and rebounder. Any attempt by Gasol to help Bynum on Howard should result in a kick-out to Lewis who can knock down the open shot. On the other end, Gasol should have little trouble posting up the smaller Lewis, who is not known for his low-post defense. Gasol has an even bigger advantage there than normal, though the Lakers have shown in past series this postseason that they are, for some reason, reluctant to give Pau the ball and let him go to work on the block. Gasol could easily average 25 a game with Lewis on him. And when the Magic bring extra defenders to help Lewis out, Pau's passing ability can create open shots for his teammates. While both are excellent players, Lewis has been known to disappear for quarters or even halves, while Gasol remains consistent. Also, Gasol's proficiency on the defensive end is higher than Lewis', so I give Pau the edge in this matchup.

Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Another pivotal matchup pits the two small forwards. The Turkish Michael Jordan is one of the toughest covers in the league, as he can handle the ball, shoot from distance, drive to the basket, and create for his teammates. And he does all this standing at 6-10, perhaps the tallest small forward in the NBA. Turkoglu gave the Cavs fits with his ability to both score and pass. The Cavs had no one to match up with him, usually setting 6-3 Delonte West on him. While finding someone to check Turkoglu is a problem for most teams, the Lakers may be the ones best equipped for doing so. Enter Trevor Ariza, who, at a lanky 6-8, is best known for his defensive skills and energy. Ariza is quick enough to stay with Turkoglu on the drive, and long enough to contest his jump shots. Also, Ariza, one of the league leaders in steals, can hound the turnover-prone Turkoglu while he is bringing the ball up the floor. On the other end, Turkoglu is a sub-par 1-on-1 defender. However, Ariza's offensive game is not developed enough to really take advantage of that. Relying mostly on open jump shots, Ariza has been dead on in the postseason, connecting on 50% of his threes. But Ariza shot below 32% on treys during the regular season and has never been mistaken for a knock down shooter. He may have a bit more trouble in this series with the taller Turkoglu running at him. Ariza should pump fake the three, and put the ball on the deck instead, His speed and quickness advantage should allow him to beat Turkoglu off the dribble and get to the rim where he can either challenge Howard or dish to an open teammate. This is a matchup that normally favors Turkoglu and the Magic, but Ariza has the skill set to negate that and make it a wash.

Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Do I even have to break down this one? Kobe is the best player in the NBA (see my reasoning in my "Kobe vs. LeBron" post) so what can some rookie do to stop him? The answer is, to be blunt, nothing. Lee can hardly hope to contain Bryant and the Magic will probably send constant double teams to help Lee out and force the ball out of Bryant's hands. This leaves shooters open, and as the Nuggets can tell you from the last couple games of their series, that can really hurt you. Of course, if the Lakers are hitting their shots, the Magic will be forced to stay at home and pray Lee is able to force Kobe into a contested 2-point jump shot. The only problem is, Bryant can make those in his sleep too. Lee has shown that he is a capable defender, and the rookie's effort level has been high. His youth and vigor will need to be in full effect to slow down Bryant. There's always the chance that Bryant is having an off-night shooting. As long as Lee keeps Kobe off the foul line and away from the basket, the Magic will live with whatever damage Bryant does. Bryant should look to attack early while Lee is matched up with him and set the tone for the Lakers. He should follow LeBron's lead and look to get into the paint and get to the free throw line, and put Dwight Howard in foul trouble along with that. Moving to the other end, Lee has displayed the ability to knock down open jump shots. Kobe will probably stick to his free safety defense and concede some shots to Lee, but that could hurt the Lakers if Lee is feeling it. Lee was a proficient scorer in college and has the ability to get his own shot. Attempting to create off the dribble for himself would be an effective way to make Kobe move his feet and expend some energy on the defensive end, while also keeping Bryant from helping out his teammates like he wants to do. This matchup favors Kobe and it's not even close, but if Lee can get back some of the points he gives up and make Bryant work on defense, it could be the difference for the Magic.

Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Perhaps the Lakers' biggest flaw is their inability to defend point guards, best demonstrated by little Aaron Brooks torching them in the Houston series. Derek Fisher's increasing age and decreasing athleticism has made the once great defender into a human drill cone that opponents easily maneuver around. In the two regular season meetings between these teams, the Magic's normal starting point guard Jameer Nelson led the Magic in scoring, averaging over 27 points per game. Luckily for the Lakers, Nelson was injured and is not yet sure if he'll be able to play in this series. However, the Magic went out and acquired Rafer Alston to run point, not a bad replacement at all. Alston, who used to be better known as playground legend "Skip to my Lou" certainly has the moves to dance around Fisher. But Alston's inconsistent shot and reluctance to go the basket helps the Lakers out. If Alston decides to aggressively attack the rim, the Lakers are in for some real problems. Fisher would do well to back off of Alston and give him the jumper, a shot Alston is more than happy to take. If he gets on a roll, watch out, but it would be surprising if Alston caught fire more than once in the series, especially on the road. On the other end, Fisher is nothing more than a catch-and-shoot player. While possessing a terrific shot, Fisher has been abysmal shooting the ball over the last couple months. Alston is one of the best defensive point guards in the league, but he won't have to put his skills on display since Fisher is no threat to drive to the basket. Alston will probably be the primary help defender for whomever Rashard Lewis is guarding on the block, so Fisher needs to make him pay by hitting his open shots. The point guard matchup will always favor the Lakers' opponent, but if Fisher is able to knock down big shots like he's done in the past, he can keep the gap narrower than expected.

Key Reserves:

Magic

Mickael Pietrus
Pietrus was the Magic's biggest offseason acquisition. He is an athletic wing who can bury the open three, and guard the other team's primary perimeter scorer (the Warriors clearly didn't need him right?) After an up-and-down regular season that was hampered by injuries, Pietrus has come on strong in the last 2 rounds of the playoffs, coming off the bench to deliver 13 points per game and shoot 41% on threes. But Pietrus' biggest contribution to the team has come on the defensive side of the ball. He played well against the Ray Allen/Paul Pierce combo, and did a shockingly good job guarding LeBron James in the last round. Sure, LeBron got his points, but he's LeBron; he's going to no matter what. What Pietrus was able to do was make LeBron work HARD for those points, tiring him out as the series wore on. He also took the pressure off of Hedo Turkoglu to guard LeBron, letting Turkoglu conserve more of his energy for the offensive end. In the Finals, Pietrus will again see heavy minutes and be used primarily as a defensive stopper, this time on Kobe Bryant. In this particular matchup, Pietrus will have a slight size advantage, allowing him to be a more effective 1-on-1 defender. If he can make it tough for Kobe to get his points, it will keep the Magic in every game down the stretch where they have excelled so far this postseason. On the offensive end, he will space the floor and look to keep knocking down open threes.

Anthony Johnson
The Lakers must be ecstatic that Johnson is the Magic's backup point guard. He is the rare point guard who can't hurt them. Johnson's age and lack of athleticism make forays into the paint scarce, so anyone guarding him doesn't have to worry about that. While Johnson has worked on his perimeter jumper to fit into the Magic's system, he has struggled shooting the ball in the playoffs, shooting just 37% from the field, 30% on threes, and 50% from the foul line. What Johnson can do is run the team efficiently. Turnovers are rare, and his decision making this season has been solid. Defensively, Johnson has trouble handling quicker point guards. The Lakers' Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown should look to take advantage of this and take Johnson off the dribble.

Marcin Gortat
Gortat is the Magic's backup center. While backing up Dwight Howard limits his minutes, Gortat could be forced into more action if the Lakers are able to saddle Howard with fouls. When on the court, Gortat has been productive. He cleans up the boards, hustles, and makes himself available for easy baskets, leading to his 73% field goal percentage in the postseason. Defensively, Gortat, while serviceable, isn't nearly the force Howard is. Whenever he is on the floor, the Lakers should immediately look to pound the ball into the post and let their bigs go to work on him.

Lakers

Lamar Odom
The Candy Man is a versatile, unique talent who poses matchup problems for his opponents. The 6-10 Odom can handle the ball, drive it to the basket against bigger defenders, post up smaller defenders, and step out onto the floor to hit perimeter shots. When he is on his game, the Lakers are truly unbeatable (see games 5 and 6 of the Nuggets series). Defensively, Odom is a huge asset. He has the size and length to play against bigs down on the block and be an elite rebounder, as well as the quickness to hang with smaller players on the perimeter. His versatility allows the Lakers to switch pick and rolls without being forced into a bad matchup. Odom had the 4th best on court defensive rating in the league. The Lakers held their opponents to 8 less points per 48 minutes when he was on the court to when he was off. Compare that to Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard, who helped the Magic hold their opponents to just 1.1 less points per 48 minutes, and you see just how valuable Odom is. Inconsistency has been Odom's foil (whether due to the candy or some other factors is up for debate), but he has been dealing with a painful back injury sustained in the last round. Regardless, Odom has put together back-to-back big games and knows the pressure is on for him to deliver consistently throughout the Finals. In this series, he is the perfect counter for the Magic's Rashard Lewis. Odom is big enough to keep Lewis from posting, long enough to bother Lewis' jump shot, and quick enough to stay with Lewis off the dribble. Limiting the Magic's second leading scorer would be huge for the Lakers. Offensively, the Magic have no one who can guard Odom. Lewis is no match for Lamar on the block, while Turkoglu is too slow to keep Odom from penetrating at will and getting easy shots at the rim. Odom's skills could swing the series in a major way for the Lakers.

Sasha Vujacic
The Machine was an integral part of the Lakers' success last year. For some reason, he has never found his stroke this season and his minutes have been more inconsistent with the emergence of Trevor Ariza and the arrival of Shannon Brown. However, Vujacic remains the purest shooter on this Lakers squad and he showed signs of life in the latter half of the Nuggets series, hitting 50% of his threes during that stretch. He can be a huge factor in this series, as the Magic will probably stick to their defensive strategy of leaving guys open to help on Bryant. This is where Vujacic can hurt the Magic by sticking his open jumpers like he did all throughout last year. Earlier this season in Orlando, Vujacic had the potential game winning 3-pointer go in and out at the buzzer, so he will certainly be looking to get some revenge. On the defensive end, Vujacic is one of the few Lakers who puts in a consistent effort. He has a knack for getting under his opponents' skin and is a master at drawing frustration fouls, technicals, and flagrants (imagine if he found a way to get Dwight Howard upset a couple more times). His feisty on the ball defense will be a key in this series, as he can run the Magic's perimeter shooters off of their beloved 3-point line and force them to put the ball on the floor and make a play they're not used to. Also Vujacic's size and versatility allow him to match up against any of the Magic's guards. If his shot is going in, the Machine can earn big minutes off the Lakers bench.

Jordan Farmar
The Lakers' supposed point guard of the future took a big step backwards in his development this season. Farmar's erratic play led to his minutes drying up as Shannon Brown proved to be a more consistent option at the point. Farmar has the quickness to burn opposing defenses and the shot to make them pay if they lay off. But his inconsistency and sometimes awful decision making has turned him into a question mark coming off the bench. When Farmar is aggressive and tries on defense, the Lakers' bench can go on huge runs and extend a lead. But when he's missing shots, turning it over, and getting beat on the other end, the Lakers see their leads evaporate, something that happened time and again over the past few months. In this series, Farmar's speed and quickness would be a valuable asset to covering Rafer Alston if and when Derek Fisher is deemed incapable of the task. He can also use his athleticism to easily get by Anthony Johnson and send the Magic defense into scramble mode and burn the Magic with threes when left open. A consistently good Farmar makes the Lakers a scary deep team.

Luke Walton
Oh Luke. Why did the Lakers ever give you that contract? Oh well, can't change the past. Walton is known for his passing skills, but I've seen him make some terrible passes this season (who else can give up 5 points in 4 seconds?). When you're not even good at what you're said to be good at, you shouldn't be making that type of money. With that being said, Walton can still be a contributor at times. He plays smart and can make good decisions in the flow of the offense, leading to scoring opportunities for his teammates. While he is an inconsistent jump shooter, Walton capitalized on open shot opportunities in game 6 against the Nuggets and will have numerous chances to do the same against the Magic. Defensively, Luke is nothing short of a liability. After being eaten for lunch by Carmelo Anthony in the last round, Walton will see minutes in this series against the skillful Hedo Turkoglu. The one thing Walton has in his favor is that Turkoglu is not much more gifted athletically than himself, which could help Walton keep him out of the paint (but probably not). If the Lakers are lucky, Turkoglu will instead settle for long jumpers that Walton generally does a decent job of contesting. As long as Walton helps the offense as much as he hurts the defense, the Lakers will consider themselves well off.

Wild Cards:

Magic

Jameer Nelson
Jameer Nelson was named to the Eastern Conference all star team earlier this year. So what makes him a wild card? Nelson suffered a supposed season-ending injury back in early February that has kept him out of action the past 4 months. Rumors have been swirling this week about the possible return of the Magic point guard. The return of Nelson could be huge. Aside from being an all star, Nelson lit up the Lakers this season to the tune of 27.5 points and 6.5 assists a game, well above his season averages. He was the Magic's leading scorer in both their regular season meetings with the Lakers. While head coach Stan Van Gundy and Nelson himself remain questionable over whether he will be able to go or not (a good strategy, making the Lakers take extra time to prepare for both cases), the rest of the Magic players say he looks terrific in practice and are convinced he will be in uniform come game time. However, the question is, how much can Nelson help? Nelson's torn labrum was a serious injury that was supposed to end his season. In fact, his rehab was scheduled to continue for another couple of months. Since his injury, the Magic have acquired Rafer Alston to start in his place and the team has seemingly not missed a beat, still reaching the NBA Finals. Would re-inserting Nelson into the lineup hurt the team's chemistry, which has obviously been great without him? How well could he play, having not been in a game in over 4 months? The playoffs are a different animal, played at a much higher intensity than the regular season. How long would it take Nelson to adjust to the new level of play? What if they rush him back and he re-injures his shoulder? These are the questions the Magic must ask themselves, even as Nelson remains adamant that he can perform at a high level. If Nelson is even 75% of his regular season self, it would be a huge boost for the Magic, a nightmare matchup for the Lakers, and could be the deciding factor for them in the series. If he comes out rusty and sluggish, the Lakers can capatilize on the minutes he's on the floor and look to take command of each game.

Lakers

Shannon Brown
Brown was just a throw-in in a midseason deal that swapped Vladimir Radmonovic for the woeful Adam Morrison, but he has emerged in a big way down the stretch for the Lakers. In the wake of Jordan Farmar's frequent disappearances, Brown has earned significant minutes backing up Derek Fisher at the point. Though the minutes have been inconsistent, Brown is always ready to play and can provide a huge lift off the bench. His athleticism and newly discovered outside shooting ability make him a threat to score in multiple ways off the bench. His size for a point guard gives him an advantage on the defensive end, and his high energy has sparked Lakers rallies (see game 5 of the Nuggets series). While Brown has been up to the task thus far, he has never recieved such big minutes and has never played on such a grand stage. If he continues to impress, he could see even more crunch time minutes and be a huge asset to the Lakers in closing out games as well as slowing down Alston and/or Nelson. If the pressure gets to him, he will be just another bench player that the Lakers can't totally rely upon.

Coaches:

Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy
One is gunning for a record 10th NBA championship ring and is the master of all things Zen. The other closely resembles a male porn star and is the master of all things Panic. I'm talking, of course, about Lakers head coach, the Zen Master, Phil Jackson, and Magic head coach, proclaimed by Shaq to be the Master of Panic, Stan Van Gundy. This series is filled with intriguing matchups, versatile players, and talented rosters. Coaching adjustments, creating favorable matchups, monitoring minutes, and lineup tweaks will play a significant role in determining the outcome of this series. Jackson's nine rings speak for themselves. As does his 43-0 record after winning the first game of a series. Despite all the criticisms against him, Van Gundy has been an excellent coach for two franchises in Florida (Pat Riley robbed him of a ring in Miami when he forced Stan Van to step down as coach so he could take over and get the credit) and is looking to finally get the credit he deserves. All of Van Gundy's decisions thus far have paid off for the Magic, from starting rookie Courtney Lee to not force feeding his superstar Howard the ball. He has built a potential championship team from a style of play that has never before had championship success. Some wonder whether Jackson still has the desire to be a great coach. Most know him for sitting on the bench quietly, letting his team play through rough stretches instead of pacing the sidelines and actively coaching them up. But who's going to argue with those nine rings? Though these two coaches are of opposing statures (Jackson has to be a foot and a half taller) and coaching styles (a normal look-in to a Stan Van huddle finds him screaming at his team in a raspy voice, imploring them to run and defend and compete. A PJ huddle consists of him telling his team to all take a deep breath), they have both been very successful. However, Phil has made some questionable decisions, such as in last year's Finals series, where he randomly inserted Chris Mihm into a ballgame though he had not played in months. The result was a huge Celtics run and a terrible performance from Mihm. More mystifying moves like that will haunt the Lakers in this series (there is no reason for DJ Mbenga to see the court unless it's to put Howard in the hospital...just kidding...kinda). While Phil has the longer track record, Van Gundy has had more recent success. It's impossible to say who has the edge here, but if either makes a mistake, the other will surely make him pay for it.

Gameplans:

Magic
The Magic use a simple but highly effective strategy on offense. Basically, it's Dwight Howard in the middle surrounded by 4 shooters. The goal is to get Howard an easy shot at the rim. If he gets doubled, kick it out and move the ball around the perimeter until an open shot becomes available. If that's not available, one of the perimeter guys will try and drive to the basket and make a play for himself or a teammate. The Magic also use a lot of pick and rolls with Howard and either Turkoglu, Alston or Nelson. In this series, the Magic will look to do more of the same. They will look to feed Howard in the post and let him do work, forcing the Lakers to double down (unless Bynum can somehow come through), and freeing up their great outside shooters. Also, with the Lakers' ineptitude at defending pick and rolls, expect a lot of them involving Howard and Turkoglu to create favorable matchups for either of them if the Lakers decide to switch, or giving Turkoglu room to operate if the Lakers decide to fight through.
On defense, the Magic protect the paint, and they have the biggest intimidator in the middle to do so. Dwight Howard affects all shots around the rim, cleans up the defensive boards, and makes the opposition reluctant to drive to the basket. This helps his less defensively inclined teammates, who can play up on the ball knowing they have Howard behind them as a last defense. With teams too intimidated to drive, the Magic are able to force a lot of long jumpers which they can contest since they play up on their guys. Their strategy won't change against the Lakers, especially in regards to defending Kobe Bryant. Just as they did against LeBron in the last series, the Magic will send a lot of help to Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus to force the ball out of Kobe's hands early. They will play the percentages and allow the Lakers' struggling perimeter shooters clean looks at the basket. Up until the last game and a quarter of the Nuggets series, that strategy worked quite effectively against the Lakers in the postseason, as Lakers shooters kept throwing up bricks. The Magic hope that trend resumes and allows them to stay ahead in the game. If that happens, Kobe will probably try and take over the game himself, in which the Magic can send repeated double and triple teams at him consisting of much bigger players like Turkoglu and Lewis, who Kobe will have a tough time getting his shots over. The Magic will also likely double team Pau Gasol in the post if Lewis or Turkoglu is on him, once more freeing up shooters for the Lakers. If the Magic successfully execute their gameplan, they will be in terrific position to win their first ever NBA championship.

Lakers
Offensively, the Lakers run arguably the most complex system in the NBA, the triangle offense. This system is designed to feed the ball into the post and keep cutters running through to the rim. With the Lakers' explosive offensive talent, that system can lead to a lot of open shots and easy points. Against the defensively solid Magic, the Lakers should look do two things. Firstly, they need to follow the Cavs' example and fearlessly drive the ball right at Howard in the hopes of getting to the foul line and getting him out of the game with foul trouble. Kobe will obviously be the one most expected to do this, but Trevor Ariza has the ability to do it as well. Hedo Turkoglu is just not quick or athletic enough to stay with Ariza if he goes to the basket, and his finishing skills are well known to his former team. Instead of settling for contested threes like the Magic want, the Lakers need to make a concerted effort to go to the basket right at Howard. Secondly, the Lakers need to make use of their other all star Pau Gasol. Inexplicably, Gasol only averaged 10 shots per game against the Nuggets despite shooting a robust 63% from the field. Gasol is one of the most skilled and versatile low post scorers in the league, and the Lakers should take advantage of that in every possible way. If Pau is matched up with Rashard Lewis, give him the ball in the post and spot up on the perimeter. Lewis is not a good enough post defender to stop Gasol's myriad moves. When the Magic double him, Pau's terrific passing ability enables him to find open shooters and cutters for easy shots. If he is matched up with Howard, Gasol can use his deft touch away from the basket to draw Howard away from the rim. Without a contest, Pau can drain his face up jump shots all day. If Howard comes out to challenge him, Gasol can pump fake, put it on the deck and go to the hole, or once again use his vision and passing skills to hit cutters taking advantage of the basket area vacated by Howard. The Lakers can expect the Magic to concede open looks to their perimeter shooters. Hopefully those shooters will be ready to knock down their shots as they did in the last couple of games before the Finals.
Defensively, the Lakers are challenged to say the least. Their effort on that end of the floor has been inconsistent to put it kindly. Orlando poses all kinds of matchup problems for most teams, but the Lakers have the personnel to negate that advantage. It starts on the block with Andrew Bynum. His sole job in this series should be to keep Dwight Howard as far away from the basket as possible and force him to take jump shots he can't make. If he can play Howard straight up, the Lakers will not have to double down and leave Magic shooters open. When Pau is playing at center the Lakers will have to live with whatever damage Howard does and stop the other Magic players like Turkoglu and Lewis. Having Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza is a tremendous luxury for them in that department. Odom can stay with Lewis on the drive and make it hard for him to get his patented jumper off. Meanwhile, Ariza can harass Turkoglu on the perimeter and force him into making bad decisions with the ball, while also using his length to challenge jumpers. On the pick and roll, the Lakers would be best off fighting over top of the screen instead of switching and having Ariza trying to guard Howard down low. As for the guards, the Lakers can try to limit the damage done by Orlando's point guards by having Kobe guard them. Bryant did an admirable job defending Chauncey Billups in the last series and the Lakers' best bet may be to keep him on Alston and Nelson, at least while Derek Fisher is in the game. Fisher can stay at home on the Magic's other perimeter shooter, as neither Lee nor Pietrus does much with the ball in their hands. When the Magic go to their best lineup of Howard/Lewis/Turkoglu/Pietrus/Lee, the Lakers should counter by removing their point guard and bringing Sasha Vujacic into the game. Vujacic's aggressive on ball defense can run the Magic off the 3-point line and his size can make jumpers hard for their guards. That also puts the Lakers' best perimeter shooter into the game to knock down some open shots on the offensive end as well. If the Lakers can counter the Magic and carry out their own gameplan, they have the talent to make this a short series.

Prediction
Both of these teams deserve to be here, and neither one is afraid of the other. They played two thrilling games in the regular season (2 games decided by a combined 8 points) and have all the weapons to battle this series out in 7 games. However, this is the first time that this Magic team has ever made it this far. They have no championship experience and you get the feeling that deep down, they're kind of happy just to make it to this point. Meanwhile, this Lakers team still remembers the beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Celtics just one year ago. They are on a mission to take vengeance and prove that they are truly the best team in the league. This time around, the Lakers have been tested before the Finals and have come through ready for battle once more. They have the best player in the series and in the league, as well as home court advantage. Home court has been vulnerable throughout these playoffs, and winning 2 consecutive games at home is manageable, it is just too hard to beat a great team 3 times in a row, as the Magic have to do in Orlando in this 2-3-2 Finals format. Add it all up and the Los Angeles Lakers are NBA champions for the 15th time in their storied history.
Series- Lakers in 6 (win games 1, 2, 4, 6)
Finals MVP- Kobe Bryant
X-Factor- Lamar Odom