2010 NBA Free Agent Frenzy

It's finally here. We've been waiting for it, talking about it, salivating over it for close to two years now. July 1, 2010. The start of the most anticipated and ballyhooed free agency period in the history of the NBA. After all, two of the top three and seven of the (arguably) top fifteen players in the league have the opportunity to change the fortunes of a few lucky franchises. No one can predict how the league will look next year. Will the stars spread themselves out looking for max contracts or will a few superstars take a pay cut to join forces and create a superteam? Right now the Lakers have no clear oppposition as favorites to win next year's championship. In a few days, however, they might not even be considered among the top 2 or 3 teams in the NBA. Everything hinges upon the decision of one man: LeBron James.

First of all, I must say I feel really sorry for whoever loses out on the LeBron sweepstakes, particularly for the Knicks and Nets because they have spent the last two years tanking it and clearing cap space to welcome LeBron and whichever superstar he chooses to bring along to the New York area. As signs keep pointing to LeBron not choosing the Big Apple, the Knicks have to move on to Plan B, which may be to reunite the 2005 Suns by signing Amar'e Stoudamire and Joe Johnson to add to former Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni (I hear Bo Outlaw and Maciej Lampe are looking for work too). Add that to the below average group already in place and you get a 45 win team that cannot make it past the conference semis at best. In that case I think New York's 37 year championship drought may last a while longer. The Nets are slightly better off if they can't land LeBron (I know that sounds crazy considering they lost 70 games last year) but they have a much better young core in place than the Knicks do (Adding Derrick Favors via this year's draft to Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and co.) plus they have a mad Russian billionaire taking over their team ready to throw his money at anything that moves. In fact if the Nets don't end up with LeBron, they're actually in a good position to grow with their young talent by giving Rudy Gay less than the max and maybe trying to swing a deal for Chis Paul.

If LeBron doesn't decide to build his global icon status in Manhattan, where would he go then? The most logical destination for him would actually be the Clippers in my opinion. They already have an impressive collection of talent and happen to lack a small forward and a true superstar to push them over the top (Two areas that LeBron has covered...except maybe the whole push them over the top thing. After all, he's won as many NBA Finals games as I have in his career. Sorry, had to get that remark in there.). Los Angeles would be a fantastic base to achieve his global icon dreams with oodles of worldwide exposure opportunities in Hollywood as well as plenty of trendy celebrities to associate with. He could lead a glamorous life while playing for a surprisingly good team in a great city. There's just one problem; it's the Clippers. Would he dare risk the Clipper Curse and blowing out his knee in his first game? Would he want to play for an owner who has run the worst franchise in sports for the last three decades? Would he want to play second fiddle to Kobe and the Lakers in the same city and take even more criticism for paling in comparison to the Black Mamba? If LeBron is as savvy as everyone says he is, the answer has to be no, and that's a real shame for a team poised to make some noise.

If not the Clippers, it's got to be Miami right? After all, LeBron supposedly got together with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to discuss the move last weekend. Wade is certainly staying and Bosh looks highly likely to join him. Adding LeBron would produce the scariest threesome the league has seen in a quarter century. When Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Paul Pierce in Boston 3 summers ago, the Celtics won a title immediately. This proposed new Big Three is even better than that one (on paper anyways) and would certainly attract aging veterans willing to take a pay cut in exchange for a ring. But I just can't see that combination actually coming together on the court. I can't picture LeBron and Wade working together cohesively for an entire NBA schedule. Some make the argument that Wade is a poor man's Jordan and LeBron is a rich man's Pippen, but while that may be true in terms of their games, it isn't how they've played. In particular, LeBron hasn't been brought up that way. He has always been THE MAN on every team he's ever played on. He came into the league with more hype than any other player in the history of the NBA. He's been carrying the Cavs by himself for the past seven years. He's been designated by the majority of the basketball world to be the best player in the game today. All that goes out the window if he skips to South Beach. LeBron would be admitting, at the tender age of 25, before he's even in his prime years, that he's a failure. He couldn't win a title so he went to Miami to ride Wade's coattails to a championship. Even if that's not the case, it will be the perception. The Heat is Wade's team. Miami is his city. He's the one who has gotten it done in the postseason before, the one who already has some playoff hardware to his name (a championship ring and a Finals MVP to be exact). And besides Wade, how much of the credit will Pat Riley take? If Riles and Wade get all the props for delivering LeBron his ring, where does that leave his legacy? LeBron was supposed to be on track to be one of the 10 or even 5 best players who ever lived when all was said and done. If this is the only way he can win, can he really crack the top 10 or even top 12 ever? Doesn't Wade have to leapfrog him at least in terms of who's better in today's game, if not historically? At the end of quarters and games who gets the ball and who stands in the corner and watches? Global icons can't be the second banana to their own colleagues. I don't believe LeBron's ego can let him accept this fate. Plus, you can't convince me that three men in their mid-to-late twenties would forgo 6-8 million dollars each to play with each other. Miami sounds too good to be true.

That leaves one destination: Chicago, the city that Jordan made. We already know that LeBron is changing his number from MJ's 23 to (Bill Russell's) 6. The Bulls do already have a stud point guard in place with Derrick Rose, as well as a great defense/energy center in Joakim Noah. After clearing Kirk Hinrich's contract, the Bulls have cap space enough for two max deals. If I were LeBron, I'd take one of those slots and try my best to convince Dirk Nowtizki to take the other one. I don't understand why everyone is so keen on pairing LeBron and Wade with Chris Bosh, when Dirk is the next best free agent available. He'd overtake Pau Gasol as the best sidekick in the league. Like Pau, he wasn't quite good enough to win a title as the best guy, and repeatedly underachieved in the postseason. He's an aging veteran who may see this as his last chance for a big payday and to position himself for a big-time role on a title-winning team, and Dallas does not have what it takes for him to get it done. Even considering his age and considerable minutes log, I think he has the type of game that will keep him in the league longer than people think (a less-than-physical specimen who plays on one side of the floor and has an easy, unguardable offensive weapon...think Kareem if he was 5 inches shorter and could shoot threes and was German). He provides LeBron with something he could really use; a reliable number two option who's good for 24 points a night without even really trying who's used to taking (and making) clutch shots down the stretches of big games. Plus he's one the top 2 or 3 guys in the league in terms of icing games at the free throw line, another thing that LeBron struggles with. He doesn't even need the ball that much to be effective.They're perfect complements to each other. LeBron and Rose can dominate the ball and create for Dirk for the whole game, and down the stretch Dirk can pick up LeBron and help close out games if James struggling or doesn't have the energy to go 1-on-5 anymore. And with James and Noah as his frontline mates, Dirk's defensive inabilities can be largely masked. All the Bulls have to do is add a couple shooters to the roster (Ray Allen, Mike Miller, JJ Redick, and Raja Bell are all available at the moment) and perhaps trade Luol Deng for some extra depth and other assets. Now that's a championship caliber team. People may argue that LeBron wouldn't want to play in Jordan's shadow in the Windy City, but let me pose this question: Has playing for the Lakers after all the greats who have donned the championship purple and gold (Magic, Kareem, West, Wilt, Elgin, Shaq just to name a few) hurt Kobe Bryant's legacy much?

Then again, LeBron can always decide to stay in Cleveland. He is a hometown hero there, and knows the city's tortured sports history well. It may just be too hard for him to walk away and leave his own people in the dumps like that. Maybe he refuses to be perceived as a failure for running away to another team. After all, the best of the best (for the most part) got it done with one team and one team only (Jordan, Russell, Magic, Bird, Duncan, Kobe). The Cavs did win 60-plus games each of the last 2 seasons and finished both times with the best regular season record in the league. Oddly enough, people are quick to dismiss the team as legitimate championship contenders now. It's funny how more people picked them to win the title than any other team each of the last 2 years. The Mo Williams and Shaq and Antawn Jamison acquisitions were all deemed the one that put Cleveland over the top, but now all anyone says is that LeBron has no help. Make up your minds people. And he can still get help. Shaq's $20 million contract is now off the books. Why not take that money and sign Chris Bosh? Or sign David Lee and Ray Allen? Why does LeBron have to leave in order to get the help he needs? If you wanted to win a title wouldn't you agree to go to the team with the supposed best player in the league? The Cavs have shown their willingness to spend money in order to appease LeBron and improve the team as much as possible. To me this seems like a prime opportunity to sign someone that LeBron really wants. Think you made a mistake by trading for Jamison instead of Amar'e last year? Well now you can go sign him yourself. Let LeBron play GM like he wants to and choose the superstar or pair of stars he wants to play with so Cleveland can go get them. Not to mention they own LeBron's Bird rights and can pay him more money with an extra year as well. With up to 30 million additional dollars in his account, LeBron can keep trying to bring his hometown some much deserved championship glory.

So where will everyone end up? I have no idea. It all depends on LeBron. He's the first domino to fall and I'm not even sure he's made up his mind yet. What I do know is that this will be the most fascinating free agency period I've ever witnessed (no pun intended...okay, it was intended). Just for fun, here are my predictions for where the top free agents end up:

Rudy Gay- New Jersey Nets
David Lee- Phoenix Suns
Carlos Boozer- Miami Heat
Ray Allen- Chicago Bulls
Paul Pierce- Boston Celtics
Joe Johnson- New York Knicks
Amar'e Stoudamire- Miami Heat
Chris Bosh- Chicago Bulls
Dirk Nowitzki- Dallas Mavericks
Dwyane Wade- Miami Heat
LeBron James- Los Angeles Clippers....(no, just kidding)....Chicago Bulls

Let the free agent frenzy begin!