2010 NBA Finals: Game 7 Preview

On the radio they're calling it "the biggest day in the history of LA". Not just for basketball in LA, not just for sports in LA, but for anything in LA. EVER. Is that hyperbole? Ask anyone what comes to mind when they think of LA and the Lakers are almost always one of the 3 foremost things associated with the city. So yeah, it may very well be that big. The hometown hero Lakers against the hated Celtics in a Game 7 to decide the fate of another championship. It's all on the line at the downtown hoops dojo (As Vic the Brick refers to Staples Center) tonight. With teams as even as these two are you know it's anybody's game, but I have to give a slight edge to the Lakers. Here's why:

1. Home Court Advantage
Yeah, it definitely matters. You know the stats: Home teams have won 13 of the 16 NBA Finals Game 7's and the Lakers have won 13 of their last 14 home playoff games. Of course their lone loss was in Game 2 of this very series to Boston and the Celtics comprise 2 of the 3 road teams to win a Game 7 in the Finals (One of those coming against the Lakers). Even if you think it doesn't mean much, it is definitely an advantage. Never underestimate the advantage you get from playing in familiar surroundings with familiar sightlines on familiar rims. If you've played basketball you know it's easier shooting on a basket you're very familiar with. Plus having 20,000 people at your back is way better than having 20,000 people rooting heavily against you. You think Lamar Odom isn't going to be more comfortable shooting free throws in LA where the crowd won't be wearing Khloe Kardashian masks and chanting "Ug-ly Sis-ter" at him? Role players always play better at home/worse on the road so the Lakers' bench has a chance to keep pace if not out play Boston's bench as they did in Game 6. Then of course, there's the officiating. Those "home cooking" calls as they say. Always a good thing to have the possibility of those going for you as well. If we can get a good crowd of REAL Lakers fans at the game we can harass the refs into making a couple borderline calls go our way. (Whoops, I started saying "we". I lasted one paragraph longer than I thought though. Hold on, let me try and get my objectivity back.)

2. Recent Historical Evidence
In my opinion, one of the most telling signs of a playoff team's true mettle is their performance in closeout games. When you are on the verge of closing out your opponent, you know they are gonna come out swinging and play with that extra energy and intensity that desperation brings out. They've got their backs against the wall fighting for their basketball lives. You know you'll be going against the best your opponent has to offer. So have these teams fared against the best their opponents have had to offer? Since the start of the 2008 playoffs (I think this is a relevant marker because both teams are essentially unchanged since this time), the Celtics are a lackluster 8-10 in closeout games, with a paltry 0-8 record on the road in such situations, including the last game. The Lakers, meanwhile, are a rock solid 10-1 trying to close teams out, winning all 3 of their home closeout games. Now, what does this mean? I'm not saying it guarantees a Lakers victory tonight, but I do think it's a bit of a telltale sign for the mental make-up of each team. The Celtics have let teams hang around and get back into series. Luckily for them it has only cost them in one series (Up 3-2 against Orlando last year). They have done an especially poor job of taking out teams when they are on the road as evidenced by their 0-8 road record in closeout games. On the other hand, the Lakers have shown that when facing their opponents' best they are still capable of raising their game another level and going for the kill. What's especially impressive is how great they have been on the road in those games (7-1) which gives me hope that they'll be even sharper and more on their game playing in the comfort of their own gym. I think these records give us some insight into the mental fortitude of each of these teams and that is going to be a huge factor in the outcome of tonight's game.

3. The Best Player on the Best Team with the Best Coach
If there is one player in the NBA who I'd trust to win me one game with everything on the line, it's Kobe Bryant. Not that he has a spotless record in these types of situations, but you know he's gonna give everything he has, he's going to play harder than anyone else on the court, and that he's the best player on the court. That's the first guy I'd take on my team in this scenario. A lot of Kobe's legacy is on the line here tonight. If he can win his 5th championship ring (2nd without Shaq) and 2nd Finals MVP by bringing his team back from a 3-2 Finals deficit against his most hated rivals, then he vaults into the top 7 or 8 greatest players of all time. If he comes up short that will be the third time in 7 tries that he's failed in the Finals, 0 for 2 against the Celtics, and he will be remembered for failing to hold down home court in a Game 7 in which he was the best player on the floor. For a guy who cares more about his image/legacy/numbers/historical perception than almost anyone else in the league, this game becomes even bigger.
I do believe that the Lakers are the better team. Some say Phil Jackson is getting outcoached in this series, but you can't argue with 10 titles and a 47-0 record after winning Game 1 of a series. He's the master motivator and you know he'll have the Lakers prepared regardless of his in-game tactics. Like he said after Game 6, the players know what they have to do. It's all about mental preparation and execution. The loss of Kendrick Perkins is a huge blow to the Celtics. He's one of the most underrated 1-on-1 interior defenders in the league, and is one of their leading rebounders and shot-blockers. He will be missed, even with an ailing Andrew Bynum on the Lakers side. Much of Boston's burden now falls on the broad shoulders of Big Baby Davis. He's played well off the bench so far, but he's one of those energy guys who's at their optimal level when playing 15-20 minutes at maximum energy. Over the course of 25-30 minutes he'll have to pace himself and drop his activity level (And therefore most of his effectiveness) or burn himself out early and contribute nothing down the stretch. Gasol and Odom can grab rebounds right over the top of him, even if he has good position. I said before the Finals started that if the Lakers control the boards they will win the series, and so far the team that has won the rebounding margin has been victorious in each of the 6 games. I believe the Lakers take care of the boards tonight. There will be another parade in LA this year. See you on Figueroa.