2009-2010 NBA Preview

Move over football! Basketball is back!! With the end of October comes the beginning of the NBA season, and the beginning of the Lakers' defense of their 15th title. (Did I mention the Lakers won their 15th title last year??) Here you will find previews for all 30 teams done power rankings style for who I think is better than who. I've broken the teams down into 5 groups (the Wannabes, the Hopefuls, the Pretenders, the Dark Horses, and the Contenders) based on each team's championship aspirations. After that comes predictions for the upcoming season and finally a fantasy basketball draft guide to live by for all you fantasy geeks out there. So sit down and kick back...this may take a while.

Wannabes

These are the teams that have absolutely no hope for the upcoming season. They might as well just start tanking now and prepare for the 2010 NBA draft.

30. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks let three of their five starters from a 34 win team a season ago leave without getting anything back. The other two starters played a combined 69 games last year. Top pick Brandon Jennings and head coach Scott Skiles are sure to clash over playing philosophy. Their last couple first rounders have been busts in Joe Alexander and the now departed Yi Jianlian. A huge step backwards for Milwaukee this season.

29. Sacramento Kings

A team in desperate need of a point guard passing on Ricky Rubio in the draft? Tyreke Evans may be talented, but you can’t convince me he’s going to learn how to run the point. There’s a lot of scoring in the backcourt with him and oft-injured Kevin Martin, but also a lot of 1-on-5 plays. A young front line of Hawes and Thompson could be promising, but the West is loaded with huge, talented frontcourts so it’ll take a lot of development for these kids to catch up. It doesn’t help losing glue guy and underrated all-rounder Garcia for 4 months to a freak injury. Another year without the cowbells ringing at Arco.

28. New Jersey Nets

Devin Harris has proven to be a beast and Brook Lopez surprised many by ascending the ranks of big men in the league so quickly. But after that, what is there? A lot of young guys, but none without question marks. Can Yi ever look good playing against something other than a chair? Can CDR score in the pros? Does Courtney Lee have any offense? Can Terrence Williams consistently play at the level he is capable of? If all those guys pan out then great. If, as is likely, that is not the case, New Jersey can hope for a move to Brooklyn, a Russian mobster for an owner, a shot at signing LeBron, and stories of Brook Lopez holding up piñatas for kids at their birthday parties for a mere $25,000. Oh what a deal!

27. Memphis Grizzlies

If anyone can tell me what the Grizzlies’ plans are, I’d love to hear it. Already with two gunners in Mayo and Gay, the Grizz add Iverson and Randolph. Those four alone will be putting up 80+ shots a game. Marc Gasol seemed to develop nicely last year, but walking bust, I mean, number two overall pick Thabeet will have to be in the lineup regularly to justify his draft slot. I say Memphis will play roulette in the locker room before the game to decide who’s going to get the touches on offense that night. The league must be terrified that the Grizzlies will figure out in the middle of the season that this team isn’t working out and try and trade Mayo or Gay to a contender for a bag of beans and some future conditional draft picks.

26. New York Knicks

No Knick fan cares about this season. All the buzz in the Big Apple will be over whether LeBron will be calling the Garden home in 2010, and will he be bringing some more star power with him? In the meantime, the team will be working much harder on trading Eddy Curry and/or Jared Jeffries’ contracts than attempting to play a lick of defense.

Hopefuls

These teams are on the outside looking in. Some have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, some are just hoping to continue their rebuilding process, and one is hoping they don’t fall out of the playoff race.

25. Minnesota Timberwolves

They’ve got one stud in Al Jefferson, but not a whole lot around him. The Ricky Rubio situation hasn’t worked out for this season at least, and I think they botched their whole draft with their back-to-back point guard picks. After signing Ramon Sessions as well, who gets the minutes at the point for the T-Wolves? Big Al is coming off of a serious knee injury and K-Love is hurt now too. The departure of Mike Miller and Randy Foye leaves this squad really lacking quality swingmen. If Kurt Rambis learned anything under Phil Jackson, he could begin to turn them around, but I don’t see a huge improvement after they didn’t upgrade their talent a whole lot.

24. Indiana Pacers

Can Danny Granger be the best player on a championship team? I feel he’s more the Pippen type than the Jordan type, offensively anyways, and while he’s a fantasy monster, he’s one of those guys whose numbers are pretty empty. I respect that the Pacers are trying to rebuild their image post-Palace fiasco, but Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansborough, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts, and Travis Diener aren’t going to carry you far on the floor. The upside is though, we can see the first time five white guys are on the court for one team in about three decades. If we could get a picture of five of those guys walking onto the floor together, it would make an awesome poster.

23. Golden State Warriors

The one constant for the Dubs is that they’re going to be an entertaining team to keep tabs on. They’ve got more talent than a bunch of teams ahead of them on this list, but they’re run by a mad scientist and their players seem like mismatched puzzle pieces. Don Nelson has no rational method of giving out minutes to his guys, or even having them suit up for games. Captain Jack is already loudly complaining that he wants out, and we’ve seen before that once you get into Nellie’s doghouse, you rarely make it out on good terms. Monta Ellis claims that he can’t share a backcourt successfully with Stephen Curry, something that has to kill a rookie’s confidence. And Ellis himself is coming off of an ugly injury cover-up incident last year. One bright spot could be the development of second year player Anthony Randolph, who everyone around the league agrees has almost unlimited untapped upside (It’s pretty hard to alliterate with U’s. Give me some credit.) Golden State has the talent to win 45 games this year, but the dilemmas to win just 25. Personally, I think it will tend closer to the lower number.

22. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are a year removed from putting the biggest scare of any team in the league into the champs, taking the Lakers to 7 games in the second round of the playoffs. Houston has done a terrific job of building a winning team with a couple of stars and a bunch of guys off the scrap heap. This year however, they may not have the star power to stick in the West playoffs. Yao is out for possibly the entire season and Tracy McGrady is still a big question mark. Ron Artest is replaced by the younger Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks is now the full-time starting point guard. I actually think this could be a season where one step backwards equals two steps forward. The Rockets still have a solid base with their role players. They replace a couple older guys in Artest and Alston with young guys in Ariza and Brooks, who will have an incredible opportunity to develop with basically no other options to go to. That will be big for them going forward. McGrady’s huge contract comes off the books, freeing up cap space for the Rockets to sign one of the big free agents available next summer to pair with Yao, who will be fresh and healthy after a season off. A bad year would also give them a high draft pick in a draft that’s sure to be better than this year’s edition to move forward with. I don’t advocate tanking a whole season, but the Rockets may be better off not killing themselves to get the 8 seed.

21. Charlotte Bobcats

Every year the question is asked: “Is this the year the Bobcats make the playoffs??” And every year the answer is a “No”. I don’t see that changing after the Bobs mysteriously flipped centers with the Hornets, getting Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. In my opinion, that’s a downgrade, maybe even a significant one. What evidence do we have that Chandler can be even adequately effective without Chris Paul feeding him lobs? He doesn’t even block shots anymore. There is still talent in Charlotte, especially on the wings and in the backcourt, but still nothing up front. Besides Chandler, the Bobcats will be relying on Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, and Vladimir Radmonovic to pull down boards and anchor the middle. Even with Larry Brown at the helm, I don’t think this team is deep or talented enough to challenge for a spot in a more competitive East. By the end of this season they may be the only pro sports franchise without a playoff appearance if the Houston Texans come through.

20. Toronto Raptors

It seems like it was just a year ago that we were talking about the Raptors waiting in the wings to rise to the top of the ranks in the East. Oh wait, it was. And yet, Toronto stunk out the joint last year and it seems a matter of when, not if, Chris Bosh is dealt before getting a chance to walk next summer. Even with the addition of the Turkish Michael Jordan, I don’t think the Raptors can climb back into Eastern elite. Not with so many other average teams improving around them. Hedo Turkoglu was in the perfect situation to succeed in Orlando. With one of the great point guards in the game in Jose Calderon running the show, Turk will not have the ball in his hands as much to make any play he wants. Also, too much will be asked of rookie shooting guard DeMar DeRozan. He’s way too raw to make a huge impact now. If Andrea Bargnani can play at a level that justifies his number one overall pick status, the Raps may hang onto Bosh and make things interesting, but I think they’ll be on the outside looking in come mid-April. At least they’ll know that they’re still the best team in Canada.

19. Oklahoma City Thunder

What a shame this team is no longer in the good city of Seattle. Nothing against OKC, but, come on now. What’s a pro basketball franchise doing in Oklahoma? Anyways, it’s a promising franchise, with Kevin Durant ready to take the leap to superduperstardom. I see many scoring titles in that young man’s future and it would surprise me not at all if his first one came this season. Jeff Green is quietly developing into a very nice complimentary player, Russell Westbrook is sure to improve on a stellar rookie year, and rookie James Harden seems like a great fit for this young squad. All the Thunder lack is a little depth and a good big man anchoring their middle. Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison would make great bench players, but having them rotate as starting center is a real impediment. Their lack of quality size up front will keep them out of the playoffs this season in a West that’s frontcourt heavy, but they may be closer than you think.

18. Los Angeles Clippers

What a difference a Blake Griffin makes. The Clips get a huge jump on their lottery pick competition by grabbing the only potentially great player in this year’s draft. While Griffin still has a lot of developing to do, he can do it at his own pace with a couple other solid bigs in place in Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman. Reports have Baron Davis looking leaner and hungrier than he has in years, and Eric Gordon will build on his quietly great rookie campaign. I also love the Clippers’ depth with underrated acquisitions Rasual Butler, Sebastian Telfair, and Craig Smith joining the club. The only thing holding this team back is their terrible coach. If he stays out of the way and all the key guys manage to stay relatively healthy, I see the Clippers sneaking back into the playoffs….only to be swept by the Lakers in the first round.

Pretenders

This group is reserved those teams who are playoff-caliber teams, but not much more. They all have talent, but if any one of these teams makes a deep run in the postseason, I’d be surprised. Some of them may be in a dogfight down the stretch just to get in.

17. Detroit Pistons

It seems like the Pistons were a prime candidate to enter rebuilding mode after their implosion last season. With two-thirds of their title-winning rotation departed, and a good deal of payroll slashed with the Answer and Sheed leaving town, it would be natural for the Pistons to wait a year, let their youngsters like Rodney Stuckey and rookie Austin Daye develop, then use their cap room to splurge on a big free agent next summer with a lottery pick to boot. Instead, Detroit dove into the free agent fray first in 2009, striking deals with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva almost before the signing period began. It’s a move I don’t like, as it creates the same backcourt rotation problem the Pistons dealt with last year after Iverson came on board. And while Villanueva can score in bunches, he hasn’t shown any effort on the defensive end in his career, and it remains to be seen if he was just playing for a contract with his performance last year. A team that has been synonymous with defense and tough, intimidating big men is now a perimeter-oriented jump shooting team that will find it impossible to deal with size down low. The fall from grace will continue for the Pistons, who will miss the playoffs for the first time in a long time.

16. Miami Heat

It was the D-Wade show in South Beach last year, and the Heat did nothing to change that over the offseason. While Wade is clearly at the forefront of the discussion for best player, he is not superhuman. An extremely brittle, extremely physical specimen who has to shoulder such a large burden can’t expect to escape injury forever. And with his previous injury history, it may be just a matter of time before Wade goes down this year. Miami is clearly banking on large internal improvement from last year’s rookies Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. Beasley in particular has the talent to take a considerable portion of the scoring load off of Wade, but his mental state is in question heading into the season. Another big issue in Miami is how much Jermaine O’Neal has left in the tank. If he can play anywhere near his 2004 capabilities, the Heat will be a team no one wants to face in the postseason, otherwise it will just be more of Dwyane Wade’s spectacular play in another early playoff exit.

15. Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers should flourish in a more uptempo style suited to their athletes and getting Elton Brand back healthy certainly helps, but remember that Brand has now missed nearly all of the past TWO seasons, and Philly seemed to play much better without Brand in the lineup last year. The departure of Andre Miller also hurts as they now have no true point guard to lead them. While Lou Williams can fill it up, he’s a shoot first type of player who may not get all of his talented teammates involved. Andre Iguodala continues to be one of the most underrated all-around players in basketball, but his game was negatively affected the most when Brand was playing a year ago. Thaddeus Young is primed for a breakout year, and he would be a great fit at the power forward spot if the Sixers want to play more small ball this year. Jason Kapono finally brings an outside shot to the table for a team that has been in desperate need for shooters, but he won’t be on the floor in crunch time, so who else will be able to shoot Philly back into games? Ultimately, I think the departure of Andre Miller coupled with the team’s lack of identity with Brand in the lineup will hold back a group that is oozing with potential.

14. New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets are just 2 years removed from nearly having the best record in the Western Conference. Now they have moved back in the pack and seem to be in some slight disarray. They upgraded their low-post offense with the addition of Okafor who should complement David West’s outside game well, but they still lack depth, have a lot of injury concerns, and a gaping hole at shooting guard, especially after giving away Rasual Butler. Peja Stojakovic is just an afterthought at this point in his career, and Morris Peterson always has been. Chris Paul may not have much help in getting his team back to the top and head coach Byron Scott is on a short leash. New Orleans is a just a couple of injuries away from missing out on the playoffs and having a new coach and an unhappy superstar.

13. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls seem to be treading water for this season. They lose Ben Gordon’s offensive firepower, but John Salmons is now entrenched as the starting 2-guard and they get Luol Deng back. The Bulls still have no depth and are counting largely on Derrick Rose making the leap to offensive juggernaut (Extremely possible. See Durant, Kevin circa 2009.) and their rookies to make up for it. This team will play hard and be exciting to follow, but their reliance on perimeter scoring and lack of depth should slow them down in the playoffs. It may not matter much to Chicago, who are already eyeing potential living accommodations for Windy City native and free-agent-to-be Dwyane Wade.

12. Atlanta Hawks

Last year the Hawks were the best of the rest after the Big Three in the East. They may hang onto that title after re-signing a few key guys and adding scorer extraordinaire Jamal Crawford. Unfortunately for the Hawks, most of their team is basically in their prime, so banking on internal improvement will not be enough. Mike Bibby may not have a whole lot left in the tank, leaving Atlanta without a true point guard, though Crawford and Joe Johnson have no problem handling the ball. The Hawks are still very perimeter-oriented, and need Josh Smith to get a clue and work on his low-post scoring instead of jacking up outside jumpers. More offense from Al Horford would be welcome as well. The biggest problem for Atlanta may be their continued lack of depth, particularly in the frontcourt. Each of the last two seasons Joe Johnson has worn down in the second half of the season after logging 40+ minutes per game early on. They really need their bench guys to step up and play decently enough for their big guns to be in shape for the postseason.

11. Washington Wizards

The Wiz were awful last year as Agent Zero missed basically his second consecutive full season. Arenas claims that not only is he healthy this year, but he will also stop blogging and focus solely on basketball (Over/under no blogs by January 1, 2010, give me the under.). He still has two great sidekicks in Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, plus starting center Brendan Haywood is back healthy as well. People forget Haywood was very productive, particularly on defense, for Washington two years ago. The Wizards also made arguably the best move of the offseason by giving up pretty much nothing for two more quality players in Mike Miller and Randy Foye. Miller can play the 2 or the 3 and his silky smooth shot will get more open looks with so many scorers around. Foye is still developing as a combo guard who can spell either backcourt position without taking anything off the table. The Wizards also still have a lot of young talent off the bench like Andray Blatche, Jevale McGee, Dominic McGuire, Nick Young, and Javaris Crittenton, who will provide good depth for this injury-prone squad. It all adds up to the most improved team in the league and a good shot at hosting a first round playoff series….provided they stay healthy of course.

10. Utah Jazz

The Jazz are another one of those teams who seemed like they were ready to take the next step and contend for a title just a couple years ago when they made it to the Western Conference Finals. Since then though, Utah has lost earlier and earlier in the playoffs, (Going out quietly in the first round last year as an 8 seed) despite the improvement of their young guys like Deron Williams, Paul Millsap, and Ronnie Brewer. They retain both starting frontcourt players in Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, who declined to opt for free agency this year, but Millsap was also re-signed to a big contract and many expect Boozer to be on the move before the trade deadline to make room for him. Utah still has a lot of talent led by Williams and makes a dangerous foe for any team in the playoffs with their ability to play various styles. What they really need is another scorer in the backcourt to take the pressure off of Williams, so if they can flip Boozer for a scoring wing the Jazz could climb steadily back up the ranks out West.

9. Phoenix Suns

Five years ago the Suns breathed life back into the NBA with Mike D’Antoni’s patented seven-seconds-or-less offense that led to three consecutive deep (but unlucky) playoff runs. After a season of trying to play a more defensive half-court game, the Suns go back to the run-and-gun and I think it will have a similar effect as it did back in 2005. Their guys will be energized, and with Steve Nash running the offense to perfection, everyone will get their touches. Their ability to put points on the board will catch a lot of better teams off guard and lead to a strong bounce-back year in the Desert. The big question here is whether Amar’e Stoudamire will continue to show his displeasure and be traded away rather than allowed to walk as a free agent next summer. I think a fast-paced game suited to his talents will keep him interested enough to play out the season in Phoenix, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they catch some team napping and get past the first round of the playoffs. Draft all their rotation guys with confidence in your fantasy leagues. There will be plenty of stats to go around.

Dark Horses

These teams are right on the cusp of being true championship contenders. They still carry more question marks than the league’s royalty, but if everything goes right for one of these teams, they can surprise a lot of people in June.

8. Denver Nuggets

I said in the intro to this group of teams that if everything goes right for one of these teams it can make a title run. Well I think that already happened for this Nuggets team last year. They made the AI for Billups swap that upgraded their leadership and got their offense to fall exactly into place. Denver got healthy seasons from both Nene and K-Mart (When was the last time that happened for either of those guys, let alone both?). Chris Andersen and Dahntay Jones were revelations off the bench, and J.R. Smith kept his act together for most of the season. The Nuggets got to the Western Conference Finals and pushed the Lakers hard. I think that was their ceiling. I don’t see all those things going right for them again. Billups is a year older and probably a step slower. It’s foolish to bank on healthy years from their starting bigs again. The Birdman just got paid. Jones skipped town. J.R. Smith is still J.R. Smith. Carmelo Anthony could have an MVP caliber season, but without improving and with less luck this season, I think they fall back in the pack.

7. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks rolled the dice on the Devin Harris for Jason Kidd trade and saw it turn up two early playoff exits in Dallas and a monster season out of Harris in New Jersey. But I have to give the Mavs credit for sticking to their guns, and giving this team a chance to succeed with Kidd instead of rebuilding and possibly scaring Dirk Nowitzki off next summer. After acquiring Shawn Marion for spare parts, Dallas has all the makings of a run-and-gun style team a la the Suns. They would create numerous matchup problems with a front line of Nowitzki, Marion, and Josh Howard along with Kidd and Jason terry in the backcourt. Who can guard that lineup? If the Mavs do run, I can see them outscoring teams and going deep into the playoffs. The only question is, as with the Phoenix teams from earlier in the decade, does Dallas have the depth to push the pace? They quite possibly might. They made an underrated pickup in defensive ace Quinton Ross, who can guard perimeter scorers and knock down threes, and Tim Thomas thrived in Phoenix’s system. And if they want to play more traditional they have solid bigs in Drew Gooden and Erick Dampier off the bench, while little J.J. Barea proved he could contribute last season backing up Kidd. If the chips fall the Mavericks way, this could be the team that finally gets it done in Big D.

6. Portland Trailblazers

Three years ago I picked a team in each conference to go from the bottom to the top and be contenders by 2010. In the East, I took the Bobcats. (Yeahhh…let’s move on shall we?) And in the West I jumped on the Blazers. I loved their 2006 draft where they absolutely stole both Brandon Roy (My boy) and LaMarcus Aldridge and they have steadily climbed the ranks since. A lot was expected out of them in last year’s playoffs, but they went down in the first round to Houston, leaving many dismissing them as not yet ready. In their defense, they only played one bad game in that series (Game 1) and after that home court held every time so they lost in six games. They came very, very close to beating the Rockets in Houston on more than one occasion in that series though, and remember the Rockets played the champs better than anyone else, plus Yao was healthy for the Blazers series. I think that series had more to do with Houston being good than the Blazers being bad. Now with that experience under their belts, I think they can take the next step into the West’s elite. Their home court advantage is among the best in the league, and they may play the Lakers tougher than anyone else. Throw in the most underrated superstar in the game (Roy) and the addition of Andre Miller and this team has massive potential. Most of that potential hinges on former number one pick Greg Oden. If he can develop into an intimidating low-post force, particularly on defense, the Blazers have all the pieces to stay in contention for the next decade. Also, they hold a wild card in their young assets and cap room, making a trade for a big-time difference maker still possible.

Contenders

The name says it all. Odds are one of these teams are winning the title this year. They are simply a cut above the rest of the NBA.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs were the darlings of the league last year, finishing with the best record, having LeBron get MVP, and Mike Brown get Coach of the Year. Then they were exposed in the conference finals by Orlando as being all LeBron and not much else. To rectify that, Cleveland made a big splash in the offseason trading for Shaquille O’Neal. While he may make even better chemistry in the locker room, will he make a better team on the floor? No question he gives them a low-post scoring threat who is still difficult to guard and takes pressure off of LeBron and creates more room for their shooters. On defense however, Shaq is a notoriously bad pick-and-roll defender, something the Cavs were already deficient in. While Shaq is a net positive, I don’t see him putting Cleveland over the top as many others do. What gets lost in the Shaq buzz is that the Cavs made a couple of smaller moves that I think can have a bigger impact on the team. After the Magic exploited matchups against Cleveland’s lack of size on the perimeter, the Cavs added Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, both sizable wings who can defend multiple positions. Parker is also a deadly long-range shooter. They will help Cleveland match up better against the elite teams in the NBA. While the Cavs have upgraded their talent from a team that won 66 games last year, I still think they are built more for the regular season than the postseason. They have the worst coach among the top teams and Shaq cannot be relied upon to stay healthy the whole season. When it comes down to it, it may just be LeBron-on-five every possession again, and that is not a winning formula.

4. Orlando Magic

The defending Eastern Conference champs shook up their roster in the offseason. They allowed their best playmaker Hedo Turkoglu to leave town, but acquired another All-Star swingman in Vince Carter for a nominal fee. They sacrifice some of those imposing matchups, but upgrade their athleticism and talent. They took more steps to ensure success in a more traditional setting by re-signing Marcin Gortat and acquiring Brandon Bass to bolster the frontcourt. Adding tough, veteran swingman Matt Barnes also gives them a great rotation on the wings, and Jameer Nelson is more than capable of fulfilling Turoglu’s playmaking abilities. If Dwight Howard learned any post moves at all, the Magic could easily be the best team in the league, but if it hasn’t happened in six years, I can’t assume it will happen now. If the Magic can duplicate their defensive success from a year ago, they can once again represent the East in the Finals.

3. Boston Celtics

Two words: Kevin Garnett. With a healthy KG, Boston may be unbeatable, but without him, as we saw last season when Chicago nearly upset them in the first round, they can be extremely vulnerable. The additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels don’t hurt, adding depth to this aging squad, and re-signing Big Baby Davis gives them a solid frontcourt rotation. The continued growth of Rajon Rondo into one of the best young point guards in the game can keep the C’s Big Three fresh for the stretch run, something they’re really going to need with this group of grizzled veterans. They have the playoff pedigree to get the job done, but it all circles back to Garnett. With their floor general in the lineup, the Celtics can throttle teams with their defense, the greatest asset to a championship team. A frontcourt tandem of Garnett and Wallace makes for a matchup nightmare, and gives Boston the size it needs if it faces the Lakers in a Finals rematch. Until Garnett’s health status can be known the jury is still out on this team, but if their leader is good to go the Celtics have to be the favorites in the East.

2. San Antonio Spurs

A few months ago it seemed that the Spurs dynasty was doomed to its demise. Tim Duncan was worn out, Manu Ginobli couldn’t stay on the court, and their lack of depth was glaring as they turned into the Tony Parker Show. After meekly exiting the playoffs in the first round after five lackluster games to the Mavericks, (Losing 2 of 3 home games no less) it appeared a foregone conclusion that this team’s run was over and it was time to start thinking about rebuilding. But as I have learned over the years, you can NEVER count out an organization like the Spurs. All they did was go out and have the best offseason of any team in the league. They traded what amounts to nothing for a scoring wing, something they were in dire need of, in Richard Jefferson. They also replenished a depleted frontcourt with veteran Antonio McDyess and draft night steal DaJuan Blair to decrease the burden on Duncan. With George Hill emerging as a backcourt threat and sharpshooter Roger Mason moving to his more comfortable role off the bench, this squad is deep and still supremely talented. With their added weapons, they can now afford to rest Duncan and Ginobli during the season to make sure they have full tanks heading into the postseason, and if they stay healthy they’re still one of the smartest, well-coached squads in the league, and I think a fresh Duncan is still one of the three best players in the NBA. The Spurs are just too dangerous to count out this year, and if I had to pick one team to dethrone the defending champs, this would be the one.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

You have to put the crown on the heads of the reigning kings. The Lakers became the first team in two decades to win the title a year after losing in the Finals, showing their growth and maturity. Even after hanging another banner at the Staples Center, this team still went out and made a move, essentially trading Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. People around the NBA are squarely divided on this acquisition. On the one hand Artest has been a lockdown defender for his whole career and can score 30 points on any given night. On the other hand, he can ruin a team’s chemistry like few others, has a penchant for making bad decisions that cost his team, and can grind an offense to a halt with his selfish play. Meanwhile, the Lakers lose a guy who was comfortable being a role player in Ariza, who is also much younger, a blossoming perimeter stopper, and an integral part of last year’s title-winning team. While it hurts to lose Ariza, and even with the distinct possibility of Artest sinking the (champion)ship, the Lakers now have an even higher ceiling. Having a top notch defender like Artest around keeps Kobe Bryant from having to guard the other team’s best player, conserving his energy for offense. And though many claim that Artest has lost a step and can’t stay with the quicker small forwards in the league, I say the Lakers don’t need him to. Just as Shaq went to Cleveland to guard Dwight Howard, Artest was brought in with an eye to covering the bigger, more powerful small forwards in the league, such as LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and Carmelo Anthony. Notice the teams those guys play for and where they rank on this list. That’s right, all are potential matchups for the Lakers deep in the playoffs. It doesn’t matter if Artest can’t hang with Kevin Durant or Rudy Gay in a meaningless game in January. He just has to make life hell for Paul Pierce in June. And he’s still one of the best around at doing that. Plus Phil Jackson is the type of coach to calm down mercurial players (See Rodman, Dennis circa 1997) and Kobe Bryant’s fierce personality keeps everybody in check. Even aside from Artest, this team is downright scary. Bryant is still the best player in the league, especially in the clutch, while Pau Gasol may be the most underrated great big man in the game, and Lamar Odom is clearly the most talented bench player in the NBA. Remember this team won a championship last year without getting anything from heralded center Andrew Bynum or their other bench guys. With all those great players around, Bynum can take his time to develop and has looked awesome this preseason. If he stays healthy and productive this season, there is no one who can beat the Lakers, while the combination of Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, and Sasha Vujacic will energize the second unit and can’t play any worse than they did a year ago. Add it all up and this team is clearly the class of the league.

Predictions

Order of Finish

East	West
15. Milwaukee Bucks	15. Sacramento Kings
14. New Jersey Nets	14. Memphis Grizzlies
13. New York Knicks	13. Golden State Warriors
12. Indiana Pacers	12. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. Charlotte Bobcats	11. Houston Rockets
10. Toronto Raptors	10. Oklahoma City Thunder
9. Detroit Pistons	9. New Orleans Hornets
8. Miami Heat	8. Los Angeles Clippers
7. Philadelphia 76ers	7. Utah Jazz
6. Chicago Bulls	6. Phoenix Suns
5. Atlanta Hawks	5. Denver Nuggets
4. Washington Wizards	4. Portland Trailblazers
3. Orlando Magic	3. Dallas Mavericks
2. Boston Celtics	2. San Antonio Spurs
1. Cleveland Cavaliers	1. Los Angeles Lakers

Playoffs

Round 1:

Cleveland over Miami

Boston over Philadelphia

Orlando over Chicago

Washington over Atlanta

Lakers over Clippers

San Antonio over Utah

Phoenix over Dallas

Portland over Denver

Round 2:

Cleveland over Washington (as usual)

Boston over Orlando (with a healthy KG last year, Boston would have easily won)

Los Angeles over Portland (barely)

San Antonio over Phoenix (as usual)

Conference Finals:

Boston over Cleveland (in 6)

Los Angeles over San Antonio (in 7)

NBA Finals:

Los Angeles over Boston (in 7, sweet revenge)

Awards:

Rookie of the Year- Blake Griffin, PF, Clippers: 15.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg

Most Improved Player- Anthony Randolph, PF, Warriors: 17.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.9 bpg

Sixth Man of the Year- Lamar Odom, PF, Lakers: 10.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg

Coach of the Year- Rick Carlisle: Mavs win 55+ games

Defensive Player of the Year- Dwight Howard: 21.2 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 1.0 spg, 3.3 bpg

MVP- LeBron James: 28.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.2 bpg, Cavs finish with best record again

1^st Team All-NBA:

G- Chris Paul: 22.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 11.2 apg, 2.8 spg

G- Kobe Bryant: 26.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.6 spg

F- LeBron James: 28.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.2 bpg

F- Amar’e Stoudamire: 24.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 56% FG

C- Dwight Howard: 21.2 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 3.3 bpg, 59% FG

2^nd Team All-NBA:

G- Steve Nash: 16.2 ppg, 11.1 apg, 50% FG, 45% 3-pt, 92% FT

G- Brandon Roy: 22.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.2 spg

F- Kevin Durant: 29.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.4 spg, 1.1 bpg

F- Dirk Nowtzki: 27.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 50% FG, 41% 3-pt, 90% FT

C- Al Jefferson: 24.2 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 51% FG

Fantasy Basketball Rankings

Assuming it’s a head-to-head league with standard 8 categories (no turnovers)

1. Chris Paul (stats above): In a head-to-head league I’m looking to dominate as many categories as I can, and Paul dominates assists and steals while providing incredible percentages, points, and helpful rebounds from a point guard. If he made more threes this would be a no-brainer.

2. LeBron James (stats above): I’d take him first in a roto league, but in head-to-head he doesn’t dominate a single category, except maybe points, but that’s easy to find. Nevertheless no one fills it up across the board like he does, and with him alone you have a solid base to build off of. Just hope his free throw percentage stays where it was last year.

3. Dwyane Wade: 29.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 7.5 apg, 2.3 spg, 1.2 bpg – I left him off of the All-NBA teams because I think he gets hurt, but injuries are tough to predict and his across the board numbers are so good, he has to be the third player taken. The assists from a shooting guard are valuable, he was second to CP3 in steals last year, and did you know that only 15 players in the league blocked more shots than Wade did last season?

4. Dwight Howard (stats above): He’s undraftable in a roto league, but in h2h formats Dwight is a beast. His dominance in field goal percentage, rebounds, and blocks is akin to Paul’s assists and steals, and you can build those strengths to dominate at least 3 categories. His points are great as well as the fact that he can get you a steal per game from your center spot. On the downside, be prepared to lose free throw percentage every week.

5. Kevin Durant (stats above): Durant goes off this year. Not only will he possibly lead the league in points, he’ll do it on very helpful percentages. In fact he could have the most useful free throw percentage if he can get to the line 2 more times per game. Not only that, but he can get you nearly 8 boards a game qualifying as a shooting guard and his 1+ threes/steals/blocks combo is hard to come by.

Rounding out the top 25….

6. Kobe Bryant (free throw attempt numbers will dip a bit)

7. Dirk Nowitzki (amazing percentages and will rebound more in a running system)

8. Danny Granger (1.5 blocks out of a small forward to go with crazy threes and FT%)

9. Deron Williams (joins Paul as only 20-10 point guards)

10. Al Jefferson (combination of points, boards, and blocks as good as Howard's without killing your FT%)

11. Amar’e Stoudamire (love all Suns guys this year)

12. Chris Bosh (20-10 with the percentages, but you need to get blocks elsewhere)

13. Steve Nash (see Stoudamire, Amar’e)

14. Pau Gasol (maybe the best percentages of any big man, while getting you boards and blocks)

15. Brandon Roy (great percentages to go with points and assists from a shooting guard)

16. Andre Iguodala (great across the board, but iffy percentages and he wasn’t as good with Brand in the lineup)

17. Carmelo Anthony (becoming a better all-around contributor each year, could get 8 boards a game)

18. Jason Kidd (elite threes/assists/steals combo, doesn’t shoot enough to kill your FG%)

19. Kevin Garnett (great percentages and 1+ steal/block combo, but the boards will dry up)

20. Joe Johnson (points, threes, FT%, plus assists from a shooting guard, hurts the FG% though)

21. Jose Calderon (fantastic percentages and assists, making more threes now and gets a steal a game)

22. Chauncey Billups (elite FT% and threes, with valuable assists and steals, but drains FG%)

23. Tim Duncan (the Spurs rest him more this year so his numbers dip across the board)

24. Brook Lopez (poor man’s Pau, but with elite shot-blocking)

25. Devin Harris (scoring point guard who still gets assists, steals, and racks up FT attempts without killing FG%)

Sleepers

All the Suns: J-Rich, Barbosa, Hill all steals in the middle to late rounds, and deeper leagues should take a shot on Channing Frye

Andrea Bargnani: Rare combo of threes and blocks, plus qualifies at center and shoots great from the line

Boris Diaw: Contributes across the board and usually goes a round too late

Luis Scola: Proved last year that he can score consistently in the post, and without Yao he’s got to do a lot more board work. Bank on 15-10 with good percentages.

Chris Kaman: He may be an injury risk, but so is Camby, and this is the latest you can pick up an elite shot blocker

Tyreke Evans: The Kings are terrible and he’ll basically have free reign over the ball

Busts

All the Grizzlies: If you can predict who’s getting the ball on that team you’re a genius. But you only have a 1-in-6 shot of guessing right. Just stay away.

Troy Murphy: Don’t pay for a career year. That FG% has to drop off and he doesn’t block shots. Plus his boards could decrease with more playing time for Roy Hibbert. He’s not a third round pick.

Carlos Boozer: Big man who doesn’t help you at all in blocks, plus he could get traded and Millsap will eat into his production.

Nene: See the first sentence of Murphy, Troy. Do you trust him to stay healthy 2 years in a row? I don’t. Rather take Bynum, Okafor, or Horford 3-4 rounds later.

Hedo Turkoglu: Better real-life player than fantasy player. Kills your FG% and watch the assists disappear with Calderon running the offense.

Richard Hamilton: Only good for percentages and points, but those have declined in recent years, plus who gets the minutes in the Pistons backcourt?

Ramon Sessions: Wolves took a lot of heat for the Flynn pick so they’ll run him out there as much as possible to justify it, leaving Ramon scrounging for minutes.

And there you have it. Another season of the Lakers dominating the league and me dominating fantasy basketball. If one of those things turns out to be true, I'll call the 2010 season a success. If you know me, you know which one I'd rather have...Enjoy basketball season everyone!!