Friday, December 11, 2009

NBA Quarter Pole Power Poll

We're approximately a quarter of the way through the NBA calendar now with every team having played about 20-22 games thus far, so I think it's a good time to take a look at the way things stand to date. A lot has changed since my preseason power rankings. Some things I have been right about, others not so much (...yet. There's a long way to go and by the end I fully expect to be dead right about everything. Everything except for anything. Because that's all that can be expected in a league where you never know what to expect. I hope I've just confused everyone into thinking I'm right). While the top looks pretty much the way I, and most people, thought, there is a huge jumble of messiness after the top 8 or so. If the playoffs started today, both the Thunder and the Bobcats would be actively participating. Wow. Without further ado, let's roll out this batch of holiday rankings.

30. New Jersey Nets
Of course they had to go here after setting a new record for longest losing streak before winning their first game. Injuries have played a large part in that as this team has some nice young talent (Harris, Lopez, CDR, Lee, Yi, Williams) that should be able to compete on a nightly basis. But I'm sure Nets fans don't mind this terrible start too much, as they'll have another high draft pick along with those young guys and cap room to try and lure LeBron and someone else to Jersey (or Brooklyn). Amazingly though, in a conference that has only 5 teams with .500 or better records, an 0-18 start does not eliminate you from playoff contention in the Least...I mean...East.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves
Talent-wise, the T-Wolves may actually be worse than the Nets. Al Jefferson is still slowly getting back into the flow of things and Kevin Love just returned from injury. (One guy that's not stepping on the floor for them anytime soon? Ricky Rubio. Yeah, I had to go there.) Minnesota is starting to play better now that they're getting healthier with recent wins over Denver and Utah, but they still have a long way to go to catch up in the standings to the rest of the West.

28. Indiana Pacers
Here's a usually over-achieving team that's under-achieving right now. They got Mike Dunleavy back but lose their All Star forward Danny Granger for a month and a half because of a bad heel. A team that plays no defense without their best offensive player for that long? Not too many more wins coming before MLK day for this team. And what in the world happened to T.J. Ford?

27. Chicago Bulls
Have they quit on Vinny del Negro already? Derrick Rose hasn't made the leap to superstardom in his second year, and the Bulls are finding it a challenge to score without Ben Gordon lighting it up. Chicago may just be biding their time until the offseason to try and snag Dwyane Wade, but is it safe to rely on that? I'd be surprised if they don't make a play for Chris Bosh or Carlos Boozer before the trade deadline and bull their way into the playoffs. (Sorry, but puns are just too much fun)

26. Philadelphia 76ers
This was supposed to be a team on the rise, but they've fallen before they ever really took off. The Elton Brand signing has been an unmitigated disaster and the Sixers have no one to go to for consistent offense. Iguodala is a tremendous player, but he's just not a great number one option on offense. It's 11 straight losses and counting, but at least Iverson is selling some tickets now.

25. Golden State Warriors
I give up trying to figure out Don Nelson. He's willing to play Vladimir Radmonovic and C.J. Watson 48 minutes, but one of the most intriguing upside guys in the league in Anthony Randolph can't get on the floor for a team that's going nowhere? When he does play he's great (28 and 13 in 35 minutes the other night), so why not develop him? They could have a great future with Randolph, Ellis, Biedrins, Curry, and Morrow, but instead they're content to lose 130-110 every night playing career backups for 40+ minutes. Okay, rant over.

24. New York Knicks
The Knicks are a frisky 3-1 since benching Nate Robinson, one of their 3 best players heading into this season. What does that tell me about New York? Even their best players aren't very good. So, in other words, it tells me nothing. They're still praying they can get rid of Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries to free up some more cap room for LeBron + 1.

23. Milwaukee Bucks
Now that Brandon Jennings has slowed down considerably, Milwaukee's excessive lack of talent is starting to show (8 losses in their last 9 before their last game). How much longer can they afford to swallow ever-absent Michael Redd's contract? Other teams may think he's too much damaged goods to even get much back for him in a trade now.

22. Washington Wizards
Here's another team vastly under-achieving thanks in large part to injuries. Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Mike Miller, and Randy Foye have all missed games thus far. Even so, this team has been way too inconsistent considering all the talent amassed on it. It seems every time they start to get going they curiously drop a couple games they aren't supposed to. I still think they'll get it together and be a force down the stretch, but they're going to need to start playing team basketball instead of each player being focused on getting theirs.

21. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizz are very similar to the Wiz in that they have great individual talent, and early on their results were very similar to Washington's as well. But lately, Memphis has been playing some team ball and it's shown in the win-loss column, including an overtime win over the mighty Cavs the other night. Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo have learned to share the ball better while Marc Gasol has been a rock in the middle (Can't say the same for #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet). Amazingly enough Zach Randolph hasn't murdered this team...yet.

20. Toronto Raptors
The Raps are more of an exciting, fast-paced team this season, but they're just as ineffective at winning games. Just as I thought, Hedo Turkoglu isn't making a huge positive impact on this team, and is actually hurting the effectiveness of Jose Calderon. Meanwhile Chris Bosh is putting up empty Contract Year numbers as it remains evident he has no intent of returning to the Raptors. There's a 90% chance he's not on this squad come March.

19. Sacramento Kings
The Kings have scratched and clawed their way to a respectable mark so far this year, even without leading scorer Kevin Martin and versatile glue guy Francisco Garcia. Tyreke Evans may have taken over favorite status in the ROY race and they're getting major contributions from relative no-names like Beno Udrih and Omri Casspi. I don't think they can continue at this pace, but it's good to see the Kings on the comeback trail with a scrappy and determined young squad.

18. Los Angeles Clippers
After another disappointing start, the Clips have won some games recently. Baron Davis is starting to look like his former self, and the Kaman/Camby combo is a load to handle down low. With all the talent on this roster and #1 overall selection Blake Griffin on the mend, it's clear that the only thing holding this team back is their hapless coach.

17. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are paying Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva an awful lot of money to play 25 minutes a game each off the bench, but lately guys like Jonas Jerebko and scrap heap pickup Will Bynum have energized this team to a few wins and a spot in the East's top eight. Factor in Ben Wallace's revamped defense and Rodney Stuckey's continued improvement, and Detroit may keep their consecutive playoff appearance streak alive once Rip Hamilton gets back and their pricy free agent acquisitions get going.

16. Charlotte Bobcats
Despite being the first team to lose to the woeful Nets, the Bobcats have been otherwise solid. Stephen Jackson has provided some scoring punch and Gerald Wallace is playing at an All Star level. The only thing holding them back is their lack of bigs, so you wonder if Larry Brown will move Boris Diaw soon for some added size up front.

15. New Orleans Hornets
Since firing coach Byron Scott, New Orleans has turned things around, climbing back into the playoff picture. There's still too much of a burden on Chris Paul, especially with David West struggling early on, but they've gotten solid contributions from newly added Emeka Okafor and their rookie guards. The Hornets can give anyone in the league a good game, but their lack of depth will continue to hurt them all year long.

14. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have clearly been the most disappointing team in the league so far, barely above .500 19 games into the season. While their usual injuries have played a part, it seems like their usual team chemistry isn't right. In particular, their big offseason acquisition Richard Jefferson hasn't found his niche or accepted his role on this team. As a result, the Spurs are a paltry 2-8 against teams with winning records. I still trust them to right the ship and be their normally dangerous selves by the time April rolls around.

13. Miami Heat
After a hot (Pun anyone?) start, the Heat have cooled off considerably. Dwyane Wade looks worn down and his shooting percentage has plummeted in comparison to last season. While Michael Beasley seems to be developing bit by bit, there's just not a whole lot of help for Wade in Miami. They'll still be a playoff team in a weak conference (as long as Wade remains healthy), but they won't be a threat to any of the top teams in the East.

12. Portland Trailblazers
There's something just wrong with this team. And I mean aside from the mounting injuries. They're really struggling on offense and a lot of that probably has to do with the misfit of Andre Miller imposing himself in the lineup. The injuries just add to the concern. This was a team that was supposed to take the next step to Contender status, but it already seems like they're going to take a significant step backward this year. Poor, poor Greg Oden. What else can you say?

11. Oklahoma City Thunder
Didn't believe me when I said back in the preseason that the Thunder would challenge for a playoff spot in the West this season? Better believe it now. OKC has won 12 of their first 21 to start the season, and they've done so while playing the second-toughest schedule of any team in the league. Kevin Durant has continued his ascension into the upper echelon of NBA players, currently sitting with the 4th highest scoring average so far this season. With the way this team gets after it on the defensive end, they keep themselves in a lot of basketball games with sheer effort. If they can find some quality size in the frontcourt to complement their high-flying forwards, they can make their way into contention.

10. Utah Jazz
I mentioned Chris Bosh's Contract Year numbers earlier. Well, Carlos Boozer is putting some of those up as well, getting back to his 20-10 ways in the hopes of getting (over)paid next summer. The teammates around him haven't stopped fighting though, as Deron WIlliams and company have overcome a slow start to creep up to second in their division. Once they get a few key role players back from injury they'll be a tough out in the postseason, but the bigger question is if Boozer will be moved before the deadline with Paul Millsap waiting in the wings.

9. Houston Rockets
Another team I thought would challenge for a playoff spot with a bunch of scrappy over-achievers, the Rockets are off to a really good start. Considering they've played the toughest schedule in the league thus far, their 13-9 mark is more than respectable, especially coming off of a double-digit domination of the Cavs. Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks are putting up big numbers in starring roles on offense, and Carl Landry has quietly had a great year off the bench. If they can get anything out of T-Mac this year (It would be most beneficial if they could trade him for players that can help them on the court) Houston will continue to surprise.

8. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have gotten out of the gate hot in 2009, as Dirk Nowitzki has led them to the 3rd best record in the West thus far. They posted an impressive double-digit win over the Lakers in Los Angeles in the first week of the season, and have done all their damage thus far without the services of Josh Howard. If they keep getting contributions off the bench from Drew Gooden and (gulp) Tim Thomas, expect Dallas to keep on rolling.

7. Phoenix Suns
As I proclaimed in the preseason, the Suns are back with a vengeance. They're running and gunning their way to wins once more, and Steve Nash is a prime candidate to take home his third MVP trophy. Despite a bad loss to the Knicks (In which they somehow failed to score 100 points against a team that can't spell defense) and a couple of beatdowns at the hands of the Lakers, you have to give the Suns credit for building such a strong record despite playing the fewest number of home games of any team in the league.

6. Denver Nuggets
The big news out of Denver has been Carmelo Anthony lighting it up nightly and leading the NBA in scoring thus far. The Nuggets have been out to prove that their success last year was no fluke and that they really are the second best team in the West. However, just when you think they can challenge Los Angeles for conference supremacy (Like after they dismantled the Lakers in a matchup last month), they come up with a head-scratching loss (Like dropping a game at home to a T-Wolves team on a 15 game losing skid). It's a good thing rookie Ty Lawson is showing he has some game because Chauncey Billups appears to have lost a step. This team can contend, but are still too undersized to dethrone the reigning champs.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Is the Shaq experiment working? Only time will tell, but for now I find it interesting that O'Neal is getting practically no attention (And not too many minutes either). How long will Shaq be content to let LeBron hog the spotlight? It seems like the Cavs are at their best when he is not on the floor, and that can't sit well with the Big Witness Protection (He can't do much protecting from the sidelines though can he?) Cleveland seems stuck in a rut behind the Celtics and Magic in the East, and that has the entire city is praying that LeBron will remain a Cavalier past 2010 after the Cavs fall short in the playoffs again.

4. Atlanta Hawks
Surprise, surprise. After being unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs by Cleveland last year, Atlanta now appears to pose a serious threat to the Cavs. They're clearly closer to the Big Three in the East than they are to the rest of the pack, and their stellar play thus far has reflected that. Jamal Crawford gives this team some scoring punch off the pine that they have desperately needed and Josh Smith has finally figured out he's 28 times more effective when he doesn't jack up outside jumpers everyone knows he can't make. Their lack of depth up front is still a concern, but the Hawks are definitely on the radar screens of the top teams in the league.

3. Orlando Magic
The Magic don't seemed to have skipped a beat after replacing Hedo Turkoglu with Vince Carter. They're probably the deepest team in the league, and that has made up for the slightly worse play of their starting lineup. I'm not sure you want Carter taking 30 shots a game and Howard taking 4, and offensive strategies such as those will have this team fall short of where they went last year (Last night against the Suns, a team with absolutely no interior defense, Howard took exactly ONE SHOT in 41 minutes. Lunacy like that deserves a loss). Even though All Star Jameer Nelson has been sidelined for a second consecutive season with a major injury, Orlando continues to go out and win. They've dropped their last two though, (Tough back-to-back set on the road at Utah and Phoenix) and now have to worry about the Hawks challenging them for the division lead.

1B. Boston Celtics
1A. Los Angeles Lakers

These two titans of the NBA are on a collision course for a 2008 Finals rematch. They're clearly the class of their respective conferences. Both teams are riding 9+ game win streaks and have the two largest margins of victory by a wide margin over the rest of the league.
The Celtics have gotten it done with their standard stingy defense. Their Big Three looks old at times, but not often enough to count them out. Their full powers won't be needed until the playoffs anyways. However the emergence of Rajon Rondo and even Kendrick Perkins has the Celts covered for now, and they will only be strengthened by the returns of Big Baby Davis and Marquis Daniels to their bench.
The Lakers were off to a good start even without Pau Gasol. With their All Star forward back in the lineup, the Lakers are in the midst of an 11 game winning streak with an average margin of victory of 16 points a game. Their offense is a well-oiled machine with an unrivaled post-up game and improving long range shooting. Their bench has picked up their play led by Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown, with Jordan Farmar picking it up lately as well. A healthy Andrew Bynum is on track to make his first All Star team and Kobe Bryant is still the best player in the league. The most noticeable change in this team is their defense that currently ranks among the best in the league, which has been keyed by Ron Artest. He's clearly been an upgrade over Trevor Ariza thus far, especially on the defensive end. He hasn't caused any problems on the court yet, and despite some crazy antics and comments off of it (Admitting to drinking alcohol during halftime of games when he played for the Bulls and showing up to Jimmy Kimmel Live in just his boxer shorts) the team has responded by not even noticing. That's a good sign that Artest won't be a distraction and this Lakers squad will cruise through the West as long as they avoid major injuries (It will be interesting to see how Kobe's fractured index finger will affect him and the team). Hopefully come June, we'll be seeing a classic NBA Finals pitting the clear-cut best teams in the association. (With the Lakers emerging victorious of course)

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